[This Iran war post for once launched when done but I do have to run out. So if anything dramatic happens, I could provide an update when I return. That could happen as late as 9:00 AM EDT. I would flag that in comments and perhaps the headline too]
This will be a short post because for once, not much new seems to be happening, or rather it so far seems to be at the skirmish level. The US and Iran, as always, are impossibly far apart in their bargaining positions, even with the US having abandoned some demands such as that Iran abandon its regional allies, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Ansar Allah.1 There were attacks overnight on Qeshm Island, Bandar Abbas, and Tehran, but they were comparatively small and may have been the doing of the UAE (although Aljazeera now attributes them to the US), which Iran has been pounding fiercely in the last couple of days. As we will see soon, Iran may also have implemented a new strategy to block traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
The big picture is that not only is the US undeniably losing the Iran war, but also that Trump’s preferred tactics, of making radical seeming short-term moves and pronouncements with the aim of increasing his option and pressure opponents, are working against him. Iran so has the upper hand and willing to take pain that it is immune to pressure and likely recognizes much of Trump’s flailing about as proof of weakness. And normally, Trump’s punching out at available objects at least buys him time.
Here, as we have repeatedly said, time is not on Trump’s side. Every week of delay makes ground operations in the theater more difficult, and pretty much impossible as of June due to high heat and humidity. Even continuing the conflict at a low level further deplete the limited stocks of US weapson, and keeping a lot of men in theater is very costly. The damage to the real economy is compounding and that is likely to start to show up in ways that can’t be swept under the rug by the end of May, such as jet fuel shortages seriously monkey-wrenching air travel over the summer, and the real risk of average gas prices in the US rising to over $5.
Trump does seem to recognize the risk and is trying to sell that $8 at the pump is a worthwhile sacrifice. I doubt the great unwashed majority of already budget-stressed consumers will agree:
Note that Twitter, soon confirmed by Professor Mohammed Marandi on a Daniel Davis talk, confirmed that the Saudis are again letting the US use its facilities and air space. So the halt in use after Trump launched Project Freedumb without conferring with them may have been a slap on the wrist as opposed to a real break.
But this is a more recent sighting. Are the Saudis effectively saying, and kinda loudly, that they have a vote in the use of their airspace and no more US blank check?
Saudi Arabia did not allow its airspace to be used in support of the latest offensive operations in Iran, Saudi officials tell ITV News
— Rohit Kachroo (@RohitKachrooITV) May 8, 2026
More on the kinetic front, fresh from Aljazeera:
Bloomberg, which has a propensity to under-report clashes, is on the same page at Aljazeera. Its current banner:
From the Aljazeera live blog:
Iran’s military said United States forces targeted an Iranian oil tanker in coastal waters and a second vessel near the United Arab Emirates’ Fujairah port, while US air strikes hit civilian areas in Bandar Khamir, Sirik and Qeshm Island in southern Iran. Iranian air defences were also active over western Tehran.
The US military said its naval forces came under Iranian missile, drone and fast-boat attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and responded by eliminating “inbound threats” and targeting “Iranian military facilities responsible for attacking US forces”.
Some finer points on who did what to whom:
Videos showing the launch of cruise missiles and drones from the shores of the Persian Gulf toward U.S. warships in the SoH.
Fact: U.S. warships are 10,000 kilometers away from America’s shores. They should return home. Their families are waiting for them. pic.twitter.com/6KlqL7BqCw
— IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) (@iribnews_irib) May 8, 2026
A useful assessment:
The five-second epistemology of one battle dressed up as two — the destroyers withdrawing from the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian missile fire, the strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm as cover for the withdrawal, and the press release reporting tit for tat to hide a defeat at sea.… https://t.co/6JxotwXonL pic.twitter.com/HLvfFCPxFN
— Donald J. Gorbachev (@donaldgorbachev) May 8, 2026
“Infiltrated the blockade” is cute:
Over the past two days, three cargo-empty National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) tankers have infiltrated the US Navy blockade line after making their way back to Iran via the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of Pakistan. Combined, these three tankers are capable of carrying 5… pic.twitter.com/OFAr1zSO3D
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) May 8, 2026
The key part is late in the tweet:
The empire’s destroyers were driven out of the Strait of Hormuz under sustained Iranian missile fire that exhausted layered defense and forced terminal-range CIWS engagement. The strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm were the empire’s cover fire for the withdrawal
We have been remiss in not showcasing tweets that showed a very big oil slick to the west and a bit south of Kharg Island, since no one seemed to have a good idea of its cause or significance. But there is now some kinetic action and surface fires in the Strait of Hormuz proper:
⚡️BREAKING
The Strait of Hormuz is ablaze following clashes between Iran and the United States.
NASA satellites have detected massive fires in the Strait of Hormuz
One vessel appears to be on fire near Iran
Several massive fires have been detected near Oman, along a route… pic.twitter.com/XaWayYQJWc
— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) May 8, 2026
Additional informed speculation:
NEW: NASA FIRMS satellite data now shows the large fire previously detected in the Strait of Hormuz Musandam province drifted 6km diagonally to the left from its original position over 110 minutes, indicating a ship burning and drifting with current. A second large fire was also… pic.twitter.com/Mx7aC0DBLU
— The Hormuz Letter (@HormuzLetter) May 8, 2026
Iran is scolding the US in addition to retaliating. From Almayadeen:
Iran announced that the United States violated the ceasefire agreement by targeting Iranian oil tankers and civilian areas near the Strait of Hormuz, warning that Tehran would respond “forcefully” to any further attacks.
A spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said US forces attacked an Iranian oil tanker moving from Iranian coastal waters near the city of Jask toward the Strait of Hormuz.
The spokesperson added that another vessel entering the Strait of Hormuz near the Emirati port of al-Fujairah was also targeted. According to the Iranian military spokesperson, simultaneous US air attacks struck civilian areas along the coasts of Bandar Khamir, Sirik, and Qeshm Island, “in cooperation with regional states.”
The Aljazeera feed also includes:
WATCH: Trump says ceasefire still in effect, but Iran ‘better sign agreement fast’
US President Donald Trump says the ceasefire with Iran is still in effect, despite American and Iranian forces trading fire in the Strait of Hormuz last night.Trump threatened pain for Tehran unless it quickly signs a truce.
That segment included a short video with Trump making threats very much like the one in this post:
It also reports that three Japanese ship transited the Gulf without paying fees to Iran and the owner, Mitsui OSK Lines, declared it does not intend to pay any fees in the future. Mistui does operate tankers, and my impression of the evolving Iran policy on fees was that it would charge only oil tankers and cargoes of unfriendlies, if and when it finally does decide to allow them to pass.
Larry Johnson’s post today is consistent with what we have said from the very outset of this conflict: there will be no negotiated agreement due to the lack of overlap in positions. From The Gulf Separating the US and Iran is Too Wide to Bridge:
The US position rests on a number of false assumptions. First, Iran is not the leading sponsor of terrorism and has not been engaged in plots to destabilize it Gulf Arab neighbors. Second, there is no rift between the political leaders of Iran and the IRGC… the President, the Foreign Minister, the Head of the Iranian legislature and the Ayatollah all fought and served with the IRGC during the war with Iraq. Third, Iran’s economy is beginning to revive thanks to support from Russia, China and Pakistan and from the high price of oil. Fourth, notwithstanding Trump’s claims to the contrary, the Iranian navy, air force and ballistic missile, cruise missile and drones are intact and able to continue exchanging blows with the US and Israel.
Donald Trump faces several dilemmas… The US economy is beginning to falter with growing public anger over the surging price of gasoline. There are no viable military options to effect a regime change in Iran or to compel Iran to agree to US demands. The US supplies of critical weapons systems will be further depleted if the US renews its aerial and missile attacks on Iran, and Iranian retaliation on US and Israeli targets will inflict significant damage. As long as the US continues to attack Iran, its relations with Russia and China will deteriorate.
The real threat to the US is not military, it is economic. The continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran confronts the world with an unprecedented economic threat. US attempts to block this will only worsen what will become a global economic catastrophe.
Aljazeera provides confirmation with an update on the negotiation theater:
‘Huge gap’ between Iran and US as ceasefire deal under review despite recent attacks
Neither side has yet announced the collapse of the ceasefire. The Americans say the ceasefire is still in place, while the Iranians are accusing the Israelis and Americans of violating it.
The spokesperson of the Iranian Foreign Ministry said his side is still reviewing the US proposal. There were reports that the response to the proposal was expected to be sent to Pakistani mediators yesterday.
This has not been confirmed, but Iranian officials are saying they’re still reviewing it. So despite this back-and-forth and these military confrontations, the diplomatic and mediation efforts seem to be still under way, and both sides are still interested in diplomatically engaging with each other.
Now, after Iran’s response, the picture is going to get pretty clear. So far, despite some optimism, Iranian officials are saying that several US demands are unreasonable, unrealistic and maximalist. There’s a huge gap between the positions of the two parties.
Nevertheless, Richard Pape warns that the US is still poised to escalate:
Marco Rubio’s 58-minute White House briefing on Iran was the most revealing statement yet from the Trump administration
Some will argue the briefing was overtaken by Trump’s later pause in Operation Freedom
That misses the point
Rubio revealed the strategic logic now driving… pic.twitter.com/Yt1wCMMdzT
— Robert A. Pape (@ProfessorPape) May 7, 2026
I am sure Pape will have more to say on today’s YouTubes (IIRC he has a regular Friday slot on Breaking Points).
We had said early on that another way, besides Mr. Market applying the choke chain, was for Gulf states to come to terms in some way with Iran or really become neutral. The US is trying to exercise residual influence in Iraq but it is largely in the Iran camp. Oman is trying to sit quietly on the side, as does (less convincingly) Qatar.
Pape was hopeful that the Gulf states, or at least the Saudi, were meaningfully going to check Trump, which would mean “game coming to an end soon”. We’ll give some of Pape’s observations from his post yesterday, with the huge caveat that the extent of Saudi limits on US support is not yet clear. From Pape:
The shift began when Iran struck energy-linked infrastructure near the UAE pipeline system connected to Fujairah — the last major bypass allowing Gulf oil exports to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. That route can move roughly 1.5 to 1.8 million barrels per day outside waters Iran can directly threaten. (See my previous post to Escalation Trap).
The message was unmistakable: There is no longer a safe alternative to Hormuz.
Once that became clear, Gulf states faced a new calculation. Supporting expanded U.S. military operations no longer simply risked angering Iran. It risked placing their own economies, infrastructure, and regime stability directly inside the escalation zone.
Under those conditions, survival logic begins to overpower alliance logic. Put differently, states will abandon balancing strategies when these increase the danger to their survival…
If regional partners believed the United States could quickly restore control, they would be facilitating escalation….
Once allies begin hedging, the strategic costs compound rapidly. Military operations become harder. Credibility weakens. Rivals gain leverage. Neutral states reposition themselves. And every future escalation decision becomes more politically expensive than the last.
That does not mean the United States is weak. [Your humble blogger begs to differ! The US is weak as least compared to its outsized ambitions]
It means conventional military superiority alone is no longer producing reliable political control.
There is a difference. And wars become dangerous when great powers discover that difference in real time.
The next question is whether this becomes temporary hedging—or the beginning of a broader Gulf realignment away from Washington.
And the question after that is whether the US accepts declining power.
This may explain why the Saudis may be acting to get the Strait of Hormuz de facto closure resolved:
Iran has, as expected, has seen the smallest decline in output (-11%) since the war started, while production across other Persian Gulf producers has collapsed. Saudi Arabia (-29%) – and to a lesser extent the UAE (-40%) – have been partly shielded by pipeline infrastructure that… pic.twitter.com/ISWcDgGbzr
— Ole S Hansen (@Ole_S_Hansen) May 8, 2026
Trump may actually and finally be stymied. Putin gave a very strong warning. If John Helmer’s reading is correct, not only is the Xi meeting not officially on from the China side but it will not happen unless the US is both not engaged in kinetic operations and pretty actively involved in negotiations. Trump is obsesses with face so the meeting with Xi is more important to him than it ought to be.
But as Pape has also pointed out, great or ambitious powers often prefer to gamble on escalation, even if the odds of success are remote, than accept certain defeat and loss of stature via a retreat.
More on the economic front. Demand destruction is underway!
COLUMN: China is quietly slashing oil imports, an invisible hand that’s rebalancing the market in the middle of the Hormuz closure.
(The shift has not only capped benchmark oil prices, but also triggered a collapse in physical differentials)@Opinionhttps://t.co/GND1uXtbwV
— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) May 8, 2026
And:
We have been fixated on Iran and the Gulf environs. Some sightings to make up for our comparative neglect of Israel’s continued war crimes in Gaza and Southern Lebanon:
‼️ Watch in real time how Israel directly targeted a clearly marked ambulance.
Inside, wounded medics call out over the radio, with shock, fear & desperation:
“Abou Hassan… we took a direct hit.
Ya Allah (oh god)
Abou Hassan… hurry…. We are in the vehicle…
Ya Allah (oh… pic.twitter.com/yDbAK9bc75
— Hala Jaber (@HalaJaber) May 7, 2026
🚨🇦🇪 UAE Sends $100 Million to Fund New Gaza Police Force
The UAE has transferred $100 million to the U.S.-led Board of Peace to fund training of a new Palestinian police force for Gaza, the Times of Israel reported, citing a U.S. official and a Middle Eastern diplomat.
An… pic.twitter.com/FaPJd5fzwK
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) May 8, 2026
Why is Israel preparing again for war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip?
Part of the answer lies in a truth many Israelis continue to struggle to accept: military force cannot alone solve our problems. While military force is essential, and there was never a more legitimate war…
— Yaakov Katz (@yaakovkatz) May 8, 2026
Astonishingly, official US rouses itself enough to make a handwave. From Aljazeera in Senators press US military on Israel’s displacement campaign in Lebanon:
Democrats in the United States Senate have raised questions about the US military’s potential role in establishing vast “evacuation zones” in Lebanon, Gaza and Iran.
In a letter addressed to Brad Cooper, head of the US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM), 12 legislators said mass displacement orders “likely contravene international laws the United States has helped develop around humane warfare”.
The letter – sent on Monday and made public on Thursday – largely focused on Israel’s conduct in Lebanon, where the Israeli military is systematically turning border towns that it has depopulated into rubble.
“The declaration of military evacuation zones has been used to permanently displace people and destroy homes and towns – acts that are in violation of international law,” the legislators wrote.
“Furthermore, no declaration of evacuation zones or ‘kill zones’ absolves Israeli and US forces from the absolute legal responsibility to determine that each individual person or civilian facility targeted by drones, jets, and gunfire is, in fact, a military target.”
And a BWAHAHA from the Times of Israel in With ceasefires on three fronts, hoped-for war gains suspended in dangerous limbo:
After being at war with Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, Israel is now in a ceasefire against all three enemies.
The Israel Defense Forces has certainly caused significant damage to its adversaries on all those fronts, but by no means has the threat dissipated.
It acts as if, against evidence, that all these ceasefire are real, but then whinges at length about how Hamas, Hezbollah and the IRCG may be bloodied but are very much not bowed.
Towards the end, the article shows that Israelis are worried about Trump’s commitment:
Trump really, really does not want to go back to war
The US president might issue bombastic threats against Iran every day — Iran will be “blown off the face of the earth” if it strikes US vessels; he will bomb “at a much higher level and intensity” if Tehran refuses a deal — but it’s plain that he is desperate to avoid a return to war.
Last month, he indicated clearly that he wouldn’t extend the original two-week ceasefire. “I don’t want to do that. We don’t have that much time,” he said. “I expect to be bombing because I think that’s a better attitude to go in with.”
Then, hours before the truce was about to expire, he unilaterally extended it indefinitely, saying it was a Pakistani request. In the meantime, Iran is maintaining its effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Even Iran’s repeated bombing of the United Arab Emirates, a close ally of both the US and Iran, didn’t move Trump. Instead of making good on his bombast, he made excuses for Iran, insisting that it had not violated the ceasefire.
“[It was] not heavy firing,” Trump said. “They were shot down for the most part.”
Trump seems desperate for a deal, pushing back red lines, ignoring violations, and giving optimistic forecasts that Iranians reject.
One can hope, but Trump’s only way out is to throw up his hands and depart. I think it will take weeks more of bad economic news and other big embarrassing setbacks for that to happen. And as Pape keeps warning, escalation can always seem less bad.
Done for today! See you tomorrow!
_____
1 The US has not exactly given up on its requirement that Iran give up its long and medium range missiles, or at least have their number tightly capped. The latest US one-pager, per the Wall Street Journal, maintains that Iran must submit to having all military sites inspected. First, that would give the US an amazing information advantage. Second, it would set up the US creating the pretext that the missiles were somehow part of a stealth nuclear program and needed to go.
