Eve, here. John Helmer carefully reads China’s press statements and concludes that President Xi will not meet with President Trump if the United States does not negotiate with Iran and instead engages in aggressive operations. It is unclear whether complying with the blockade without any other attacks would be a sufficient fallout. I don’t think so, since Mr. Helmer has made it clear that President Xi does not want to appear to be tacitly supporting U.S. engagement in the Gulf. If the United States had simply extended the moratorium through a summit between President Trump and Xi, and then immediately launched a fairly coordinated attack, it might appear that President Trump had successfully fooled Xi. China watchers are encouraged to weigh in.
John Helmer is Russia’s longest-serving foreign correspondent and the only Western journalist to lead his own bureau independent of any single country or commercial relationship. Helmer is also a professor of political science and an advisor to heads of government in Greece, the United States, and Asia. He is the first and only person to settle in Russia as a member of the US presidential administration (Jimmy Carter). First appearance: Dances with Bears
British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once said, “A week is a long time in politics.” Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, a member of the Chinese Communist Party’s Politburo who ranks higher than a minister, just proved that 500 milliseconds is a long time in politics.
Only a short amount of time passed between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s reception with Mr. Wang and his meeting with the delegation, as shown in the lead image recorded by Beijing’s state-run China Central Television (CCTV) camera crew on Wednesday. The top row shows Araguchi approaching Wang, shaking his hand, then tilting his head forward. Mr. Wang leans forward while reciprocating, and the two embrace. The two then pull away, each smiling at the other.
The second row of photos recreates the hug a few milliseconds after it began. Araguchi had planned the hug in advance and signaled to Wang with a smile. Wang didn’t smile and respond until the hug started. Wang continued to hold Araguchi’s right arm as he backed away, and his smile widened as he said something in their shared language, English.
The third photo shows two unsmiling officials standing straight and unsmiling as they shake hands for the camera. This is the photo most international media used to describe the meeting. This is the first high-level meeting since the US-Israel war against Iran began on February 28th.
However, please be careful. This series of photos was taken shortly after it was first published, slowed down and cropped frame by frame, and then edited, first by CCTV and then by most Western media. Between the second and third seconds of the original film, Araguchi’s left arm and hand reached out to Wang’s shoulder, and the two embraced. However, CCTV edited out the hug, and the hug disappeared completely in footage subsequently broadcast by most international media, replacing it with a formal handshake. The cut occurred at approximately 500 ms.
Not everyone erased Araguchi and Wang’s embrace. For example, Turkish state media Anadolu continued to broadcast the incident.
It took Wang, the Politburo, and President Xi Jinping a full seven days to decide what had happened.
This is the first time since April 30, when Wang revealed that he had just spoken by phone with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Wang told Rubio that the Taiwan Strait is a geopolitical priority for China over the Strait of Hormuz, and that if President Donald Trump agrees, he will enjoy a May 14 summit that celebrates that “the U.S.-China relationship…is the most important bilateral relationship in the world, and head-of-state diplomacy is at the heart of this relationship. Both sides should maintain communication and coordination, respect each other, and properly manage differences to build on gains in high-level exchanges.” and pursue strategic stability. ”
Mr. Wang declared on Mr. Xi’s behalf that being there was a precondition for Mr. Trump’s arrival in Beijing. “The Taiwan issue concerns China’s core interests and is the biggest risk to China-US relations,” Wang said. “The US side should respect its commitments and make the right choice.” Regarding the Strait of Hormuz and President Trump’s war against Iran, Wang left that as his last sentence, leaving an almost empty mention that “the two countries also exchanged views on the situation in the Middle East and other issues.”
Wang’s declaration was announced on the evening of April 30, local time. Read this for a more in-depth analysis.
After that, Mr. Wang’s ministry fell silent. The department’s last daily briefing was held just before Mr. Wang and Mr. Rubio met last Thursday. There was no mention of the Iran war or the Trump summit at the press conference. The department was then officially closed from Friday, May 1 to Wednesday, May 5 to celebrate the national May Day holiday.
When the ministry returned to its daily briefing on Thursday, May 6, it was late in the day and the One Arach talks had already ended. When asked what happened, the reporter replied, “We exchanged views on bilateral relations and international and regional issues of mutual interest. More information on this will be released soon. Please stay tuned.”
Reporters from state media outlets representing France, Russia and the US propaganda apparatus (The Associated Press, Bloomberg, Reuters and the New York Times) called for China’s response to President Trump’s threats to escalate militarily in the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions against China’s Iranian oil purchases and tanker shipments.
Asked for confirmation whether President Trump would arrive for the May 14 and 15 talks with President Xi, the official response did not appear to be firm. “Are there any details about that visit, such as when it will take place? Lin Jian: Look forward to it.” Bloomberg asked. The answer is not reported. So did the Associated Press, Reuters, and the New York Times.
The answer is not certain. It is now a prerequisite for Mr. Wang and Mr. Xi’s Trump presidency, marking a shift in China’s policy toward the Iran war. “China believes that a complete cessation of hostilities is the most urgent need, a recurrence of hostilities must be avoided, and it is extremely important to stick to negotiations. China supports Iran in safeguarding national sovereignty and security,” Wang’s spokesperson said.
If Trump does not “return to the fight” and “stick to negotiations,” Xi has said Trump will not be allowed to land in Beijing next week. As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi acknowledged in Congress on February 25, two days before the start of the war, in support of Israel and the United States’ war against Iran, China will not allow itself to become a cover for President Trump to attack Iran. Mr. Wang has changed the meaning of what he said to Mr. Rubio on April 30.
In China Daily’s text report of the Wang Arachi meeting, the photo was of a handshake rather than a hug. This wasn’t the only editorial cut. The China Daily text omitted Mr. Wang’s condemnation of the war between the United States and Israel since February 28, calling it “unjust.”
Spokesman Wang later stated more clearly: “China believes that a complete cessation of hostilities is the most urgent need, a recurrence of hostilities must be avoided, and it is extremely important to stick to negotiations. China supports safeguarding Iran’s national sovereignty and security and supports Iran’s desire to seek a political solution through diplomatic means. Regarding issues related to the strait, it is the common interest of the international community to ensure normal and safe passage through the strait. China hopes that all concerned parties will cooperate.” China insists that the Gulf and Middle East countries need to take their own destiny into their own hands, and will respond to the strong call of the international community as soon as possible. ”
“We must avoid fighting… It is very important to stick to the negotiations” – these are now prerequisites for China if President Trump wants to hold a summit and, as he promised on April 15, “President Xi will give me a big, big hug when I get there.”
China just showed that it is hugging Iran before the US.
Press Secretary Wang’s “praise”[ation of] “Iran’s intention to seek a political solution through diplomatic means” is a reference to a one-page, 14-point memorandum that Israeli-American media and Saudi state media are reporting is currently being discussed with the White House through Pakistani mediation.
Wang also told Gulf Arab emirates not to rely on promises or weapons from the United States, Israel, India or Pakistan for their future security. But it’s not just the heads of the Gulf states. “China insists that Gulf and Middle Eastern countries must take their destiny into their own hands.”
Araguchi tweeted a summary of his meeting with Wang at 4:13 p.m. It is not clear whether this is Beijing time or Tehran time. If the former, it would have occurred several hours after the meeting ended, but before Mr. Wang’s press secretary made the disclosure to the press. By Tehran time, Mr. Araghchi would have reported as soon as his meeting with Mr. Wang ended.
Source: https://x.com/araghchi/status/2052013939936956586
Araghchi confirmed the meaning of the hug and said, “Iran trusts the Chinese side, expects the Chinese side to continue to play an active role in promoting peace and preventing war, and supports the establishment of a new post-war regional structure that can coordinate development and security.” The “regional architecture” identified by Araghchi was first detailed in Russia’s “Persian Gulf Collective Security Initiative,” the details of which were announced on August 21, 2021.
Source: https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/international_safety/1466420/ President Xi’s four-point proposal for Gulf security was publicly presented after his meeting with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi in Beijing on April 14 this year. The four points are peaceful coexistence. National sovereignty. international rule of law. “Security is a prerequisite for development, and development is a guarantee for security. All parties should strive to create a favorable environment for the development of the Middle East and the Gulf countries and inject positive energy into the region. China is willing to share the opportunities of China’s modernization with the Middle East and the Gulf countries and cultivate deeper soil for regional development and security.”
Russia’s plans were reiterated by the Foreign Ministry in Moscow last month. “We reaffirm the relevance of Russia’s well-known efforts to harmonize the concept of security in the Persian Gulf through the establishment of dialogue between all coastal states, namely the Arab states and the Islamic Republic of Iran, with the participation and support of external actors who can sincerely contribute to achieving an honest and sustainable balance of interests.”
The Russian Foreign Ministry’s words “honestly” and “honestly” mean excluding Mr. Trump, his negotiators Stephen Witkoff and Jared Kushner, and the Israelis.
Spokesman for Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said yesterday: “We consistently insist on resolving existing differences in strategically important regions of the world by political and diplomatic means, taking into account the interests of all regional countries. We reaffirm Russia’s readiness to provide the necessary support to achieve this goal, including the principles and practical measures set out in our well-known concept of ensuring collective security in the Persian Gulf.”
