Eve is here. I’ve been paying a lot of attention to the Iran war, so I’ve been able to watch out of the corner of my eye what’s going on with the Ukraine war, and the bizarre threats from British and EU leaders who don’t have much recourse. With the hollowing out of manufacturing, high energy costs, and Iran war-related material shortages posing major headwinds to reindustrialization, it will be at least a decade before Russia can conjure up any kind of serious threat (other than nuclear). In addition, as Stanislav Krapivnik has explained at length, nominally European weapons depend on key components supplied by the United States. Krapivnik estimates that it will take at least 10 years, or even two years, for the EU to design and build a truly indigenous weapons system.
Oh, and if the EU gets even uglier against Russia, how cooperative will China be in providing the necessary chips and materials?
That said, even a weak political party in a geographically advantageous position can cause significant damage. For example, Russia is well aware that its Kalingrad enclave and Baltic shipping are at risk.
Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst specializing in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the new Cold War. He holds a doctorate from MGIMO, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Originally published on his website
There are really only three scenarios left. NATO eventually agrees to some Russian proposal. Russia launches a preventive war against NATO in Europe, betting that the United States will not intervene directly. Or Russia will be peacefully subordinated to the West.
Last weekend’s surprise phone call between President Emmanuel Macron and President Alexander Lukashenko followed Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev warning of a 1941-like threat posed by German rearmament and Britain’s formation of a multinational navy to contain Russia. These three developments draw attention to the fact that Russia’s traditional European rivals, the British, French, and Germans, are now on Russia’s doorstep. The security implications are severe.
The British plan to set up home in Estonia and lead the containment of Russia from there along the Arctic-Baltic front, while the Germans have opened a base in Lithuania and the French have just announced regular nuclear drills with Poland. As a reminder, Estonia borders “mainland Russia”, Lithuania and Poland border its enclave of Kaliningrad and mutual defense ally Belarus. Therefore, the “military Schengen agreement” between the Netherlands, Germany and Poland may soon be expanded to include France and the Baltic states.
This would maximize the flow of troops and equipment from Western Europe to Russia’s borders, consistent with Russian policymakers’ concerns that the EU is preparing for a possible future invasion of their country. Given France’s bases in Romania and its military agreement with neighboring Moldova, which constitutes a key aspect of the Ukraine conflict by allowing France to support Odessa in a scenario of threatened conventional intervention, both countries and others may also participate.
What makes the matter even more concerning from the perspective of Russia’s national security interests is that Germany recently concluded a deep strike defense co-production agreement with Ukraine, expanding its military presence even deeper within what Russia considers its “sphere of influence.” As a result, Britain is strengthening its influence along the Arctic-Baltic front, Germany is strengthening its influence in the Baltics (Lithuania) and the Ukraine front, and France is already strengthening its influence in Poland, Romania, and Moldova.
Germany aims to build Europe’s largest military in NATO, which would require it to overtake Poland and ideally subjugate it as a vassal state, while France and Britain are nuclear-armed states. Therefore, the threat posed by Russia’s fusion of military strategies cannot be overestimated. At the very least, partner states may be emboldened to take aggressive action against Russia, calculating that the great powers can deter Russian retaliation.
That would be a huge mistake. Because Russia cannot allow such a scenario to develop, much less to become the “new normal.” Because it will be weaponized to force endless concessions that will lead to Russia’s subordination and ultimately its “Balkanization.” In other words, a violent war between NATO and Russia is likely inevitable, but no one can say for sure whether the United States will support its European allies, to what extent, or whether it will leave them out to dry.
It is therefore more urgent than ever to reform Europe’s security architecture, as Russia had tried to do through diplomatic means before the special operation, and as the special operation failed, President Putin sought to do this through military operations instead. There are really only three scenarios left. NATO eventually agrees to some Russian proposal. Russia launches a preventive war against NATO in Europe, betting that the United States will not intervene directly. Or Russia will be peacefully subordinated to the West.
