The S&P Kotality Case-Shiller index slowed again in March as “more than half” of the 20 largest markets experienced annual home price declines.
Annual home price growth is trending downward, according to the latest S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index released Tuesday.
The housing price increase rate in March was 0.7%, slowing from 0.8% in the previous month. This downturn is due to more than half of the 20 largest markets posting yearly declines in home prices, with Seattle (-2.5%), Denver (-2%), Tampa (-1.9%), Dallas (-1.7%) and Phoenix (-1.6%) posting the weakest performance.
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Chicago, New York, and Cleveland were among the few markets with annual increases, with growth rates approaching 6%.
Nicholas Godek
“More than half of the 20 major U.S. housing markets recorded year-over-year price declines in March, reflecting the widening and deepening housing slowdown,” Nicholas Godek, head of fixed income trading and products at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a report. “Consumer inflation accelerated to around 3.3% in March, and U.S. home values have fallen for the 10th straight month in real terms, highlighting the ongoing erosion of inflation-adjusted home equity.”
Godek said March’s index reflects a growing “geographic disconnect” as the Midwest and Northeast maintain “moderate growth” while the Sunbelt and West suffer from falling home prices.
“The spread between the strongest and weakest markets (8.6 percentage points from +6.1% in Chicago to -2.5% in Seattle) highlights how localized this housing cycle is,” he said.
On a monthly basis, most markets saw a slight “spring lift,” but rising mortgage rates and declining affordability kept homebuyers from coming out in earnest.
“National home prices rose by just 0.3% in the last six months, barely keeping up with the 0.3% increase in the previous six months, a sign that the housing market is at a near-standstill,” Godek said in a written statement. “Meanwhile, mortgage rates have resumed rising.30-year fixed rates fell below 6% in late February but had recovered to around 6.4% by the end of March, reinforcing affordability pressures on buyers and potentially further slowing home sales and price growth.”
Lisa Sturtevant
Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, said the report suggests 2026 will be a repeat of 2025, unfortunately for the industry.
“At the beginning of the year, there was optimism that 2026 would be a year of recovery with strong home sales and continued price growth,” he said in an emailed statement. “However, mortgage rates are now expected to remain high for an extended period of time, which will reduce home sales and slow price growth.”
“At Bright MLS, we have downwardly revised our housing market forecast for 2026,” she added. “Rather than slightly increasing median home prices in 2026, we now expect median prices to decline slightly year-over-year. This change reflects an increase in markets where price growth is already negative.”
Bright MLS data visualized using Claude.
Bankrate financial analyst Stephen Kates echoed Sturtevant, saying home sellers need to adopt more “realistic pricing” to survive in the current market.
“The national housing market has experienced steady quarter-over-quarter growth since early 2012, and a period of flat prices is healthy for a market with many prospective homebuyers on the sidelines,” he said in an emailed statement. “This slowdown acted as a pressure valve, allowing local revenues to keep up with shelter costs after years of unsustainable increases.”
“This is welcome news for prospective buyers, but a worrying trend for existing homeowners,” he added. “…Sellers can no longer expect standard bidding wars or demand wild asking prices, especially since more than half of major metropolitan markets experience price declines each year, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. Success in this market requires realistic pricing by sellers and patience from buyers as they wait for more inventory and a better rate environment.”
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