President Donald Trump gives a speech in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, USA on April 23, 2026, with Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio standing behind him.
Kylie Cooper | Reuters
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is now seen as more likely to be the Republican nominee in 2028, according to traders on prediction market platforms.
Vice President J.D. Vance remains favored by Kalsi traders, but his odds have fallen from about 50% on Jan. 1 to just 33% on Monday. Meanwhile, Rubio’s odds rose from about 12% to 30%.
Vance had been seen as the heir apparent to President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement, given his high-profile role in the administration, officially as second in command.
But as recently detailed in a New York Times report over the weekend, President Trump is reportedly questioning whether he sees Vance as his successor. The newspaper reported that President Trump brought up Vance, who initially opposed the Iran war, as he pondered his candidacy.
Rubio’s chances of winning have increased throughout the year, but they rose sharply around the start of major military operations, including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January and the start of war with Iran in late February.
Mr. Rubio also gave a short, impromptu speech about his hopes for America from the White House press room in May, which was cut and captured in a short video that went viral, raising questions about his Cabinet’s plans for 2028.
Mr. Rubio’s role in the military conflict has made him a likely Republican nominee, but similar conflicts are hurting his party’s chances of winning the presidency, as President Trump’s approval ratings have declined since the beginning of the year. The odds of a Republican winning the White House in 2028 fell from 45% before the war with Iran to 39% on Monday.
Polymarket traders give Mr. Vance a 31% chance of becoming the Republican nominee in 2028, while Mr. Rubio is a close second at just under 27%.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
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