The American Immigration Council does not endorse or oppose candidates for elected office. We aim to provide an analysis of the election’s impact on the U.S. immigration system.
Approximately 250,000 migrants will be in Border Patrol custody in December 2023, just 10 months after the U.S. hit an all-time high in border enforcement. But border security is currently stable at its lowest level in four years, with just 54,000 Border Patrol agents. Encounters with immigrants in September. This fragile equilibrium has been maintained since July, when the sharp decline in the number of river crossings ended and migrant encounters plateaued. But despite the relative quiet on the U.S. border, migrants continue to arrive at Mexico’s southern border with dreams of safety and a better life in this country.
Migrant arrivals have been declining since late December, when the Biden administration persuaded Mexico to implement its biggest immigration crackdown in a decade. After Mexico’s Supreme Court decided in March 2023 to limit migrant detention to 36 hours, Mexican authorities devised a new strategy: “El Carousel,” or merry-go-round.
Under this strategy, Mexican immigration authorities set up checkpoints across the country, rounded up migrants, and began making their way south to the Mexico-Guatemala border. Migrants who try to go north again are at risk of arrest and deportation to the south each time they try. Arrests quickly set new records, and the number of migrants arriving at the U.S. border began to decline. By the end of May, concerns had already decreased by more than 50%.
The decline accelerated again in June, when the Biden administration implemented new asylum procedures at the southern border and blocked humanitarian screening for migrants crossing the border, rapidly sending thousands of people into Mexico. He was forcibly repatriated. Anxiety decreased by a further 50% from early June to July, before stabilizing once the new status quo was implemented. Concerns have remained remarkably stable since early July.
As an example of this shift, the Border Patrol’s Tucson Sector went from about 2,800 apprehensive people per day in late December to 1 in the first week of June when Biden’s new asylum rules took effect. The number has decreased to about 1,000 people per day. By the first week of July, anxiety complaints had fallen to 414 per day and have remained below that level for the next three months. Similar patterns are playing out across borders, from Texas to California.
The Biden administration has pointed to these declines in immigration to claim success in reducing immigration, and recently extended asylum limits, arguing that they are necessary to keep immigration numbers in check. However, these bans do not mean that migrants are completely prevented from seeking protection. Approximately 45,000 people are paroled each month in southern border countries through the CBP One app process. These people will be given one year of parole and then put into deportation proceedings, where they can apply for asylum if they wish.
The CBP One process embodies the Biden administration’s “carrot and stick” policy. Allow access to alternative legal channels and punish those who do not use them. But access to appointments has become increasingly difficult for most migrants waiting in Mexico, as delays in the essential lottery system have increased to the eight to nine month range. A new system of shelter buses aimed at helping migrants with CBP One reservations get through Mexico’s blockades will allow the Biden administration to encourage migrants to stay in southern Mexico rather than risk CBP One reservations. They seem to be expecting me to wait months until I can get one. A chance to travel north.
South of the Mexican border, there are signs that the slowdown in immigration is coming to an end. Migration through the Darien Gap (between Colombia and Panama) increased in September to 25,111 people, up from a two-year low in August. Although this is still relatively low compared to the first half of this year, data by nationality showed a sharp increase in Venezuelan migrants coming through the gap. This confirms fears that the August election, which was widely criticized as stolen from other countries in the region, is prompting a new exodus of Venezuelans.
Data from Honduras also suggests that more migrants are heading north through Central America. The number of migrant encounters recorded by Honduran authorities hit a two-year low in August and rose 15% in September. Data through October 7 suggests this increase is accelerating. At the current pace, the number of migrants passing through Honduras this month is expected to be about 27 percent higher than in September (though even this increase will still be fewer migrants than in October 2022 or October 2023). Deaf).
As more migrants arrive in southern Mexico, pressure is mounting in Tapachula and Villahermosa, two cities along the Mexico-Guatemala border where tens of thousands of migrants remain trapped. Last weekend, a caravan of about 1,000 people left Tapachula on foot or hitchhiking to the United States. Many cited frustration with CBP One delays, dangerous conditions in southern Mexico, and a lack of jobs in cities that have been waiting for months.
This caravan, along with a second caravan that left the previous week, is unlikely to reach the US border. Since 2019, all caravans leaving for the United States have been broken up by Mexican authorities, often within days. But the resumption of caravans suggests Mexico’s “merry-go-round” strategy may be reaching its limits, with migrants no longer willing to wait in southern Mexico in increasingly unbearable conditions.
Viewed through a broader hemispheric lens, the current lull on the U.S. border appears increasingly fragile. Immigrants still see this country as their best chance for safety and the American dream, and they still travel across the Western Hemisphere to come here. Delays in the CBP One process undermine the administration’s message to immigrants, fueling frustration and prompting some to abandon the lottery and travel north again. It is unclear how long the current situation will last without lasting and permanent changes to the system.
In charge: Biden administration, U.S.-Mexico border
