A cooling tower is seen at the Voigtl Power Plant, a nuclear power plant, in Waynesboro, Georgia, USA, on August 13, 2024.
Megan Varner | Reuters
The likelihood that the United States and Iran will reach a nuclear deal sometime in 2026 has jumped on prediction market platform Karshi, following Wednesday’s Axios report that the United States and Iran are close to a deal to end the Middle East war.
Kalsi traders currently see a 58% chance of reaching a deal by 2027. They even see a 47% chance of reaching an agreement by September.
This level is higher than before the Axios report, but still lower than the odds in mid-April, when hopes for a resolution to the conflict were high. At one point on April 17, there was a more than 70% chance that the two countries would reach a nuclear deal by June.
The event agreement resolves “yes” if the United States announces, signs, or accepts an agreement with Iran regarding its nuclear program.
The Axios report said the two countries were close to reaching an agreement to end the war, but added that the two countries had only moved closer to a framework for negotiations over the nuclear issue. But any deal to end the war could include a moratorium on Iran’s nuclear enrichment.
Iran said on Wednesday that it was considering the U.S. proposal, but neither country provided details on the new developments on Thursday.
Traders at Polymarket are more optimistic about the trade through 2027, placing odds of 65% on this bet.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and minority ownership.
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