Opendoor’s first-quarter numbers were mixed, but CEO Kaz Nejatian is unapologetic. Here’s what the company’s internal metrics say about whether the turnaround is real.
Opendoor Technologies on Thursday reported first-quarter revenue of $720 million, beating analyst consensus of $664.5 million, but down 38% from a year earlier. EPS was a loss of $0.18, worse than the expected loss of $0.10. Shares rose about 1% in after-hours trading.
Chief Executive Kaz Nejatian, who took over last September, said the company had structurally moved away from directional bets on house prices to a velocity-based model. New products include Opendoor Mortgage, currently located in Colorado, and Cash Plus, which accounts for more than a third of acquisition deals.
“Market makers win by being on time”
In a livestreamed earnings call, Nejatian argued that the first quarter was proof that the structural reforms he is implementing are working, even if the headline numbers don’t reflect it yet.
The crux of his argument is that Opendoor used to operate like a prop trading desk, betting on rising house prices in the months ahead. When those bets came off, spreads widened, acquisition quality deteriorated, and the company entered a downward spiral. He said the new model is built around speed, not prediction.
“Market makers don’t win by getting things right,” Nejatian said on a conference call. “They win by being punctual.”
He says this shift is most evident in cohort data.
Opendoor currently tracks margin stability across each acquisition cohort. The old model would see profits drop significantly as the company worked through its inventory. Nejatian said the four recent cohorts (October to January) have shown essentially flat margin curves, which he calls “step function changes.”
CFO’s three-number rebuttal
CFO Christy Exner pointed to three indicators that tell the truth.
The resale contribution rate has improved every month since September, ending the first quarter at 4.4%, up 3.4 percentage points from the previous quarter. Homes on the market for more than 120 days have fallen from 51 percent to 10 percent over the past three quarters. Additionally, more than 5,000 acquisition deals were signed in the first quarter, making it the strongest quarter since the second quarter of 2022.
“The last time we had more than 5,000 acquisition deals in a quarter, our fixed operating expenses were twice what they are now,” Exner said. “This is the AI investment and operator empowerment that we talk about every quarter.”
Nejatians name their own failure conditions.
Exner said he expects second-quarter revenue to increase about 25% from the previous quarter and expects second-quarter adjusted EBITDA breakeven to be in the range of plus or minus several million dollars.
More importantly, management stated that Opendoor was already profitable on a 12-month forward basis on an adjusted EBITDA basis as of April 1, and reiterated its goal of achieving adjusted net income profitability, also measured on a 12-month forward basis, by the end of the year.
Mr. Nejatian was frank about what indicates the plan isn’t working. The cohort curve has returned to its old bleeding pattern, contracted volumes have plateaued below the lower end of the company’s guidance range, and aging inventory has gradually increased. “If all three of these things happen, we’re not doing what we said we would do,” he said.
More than an iBuyer
Much of the call focused on how AI is integrated into Opendoor’s operations.
Executives described an AI audit tool that adjusts inspection coverage and actual repair decisions to improve operator compliance and cost discipline. Field managers used AI-assisted scoping to reduce pre-listing renovation spend by 10-20% in pilot markets. The title earning process has been reduced from a maximum of 5 hours to 15 minutes.
The company also highlighted that cash-plus products, which account for more than a third of acquisition deals, have increased from zero a year ago.
Also pointing to the launch of Open Door Mortgage in Colorado, Nejatian said early attach rates were higher than expected, with rates approximately 87 basis points below the market average.
Nejatian spoke at length about the tokenization of real estate (asked about in a two-word question from the audience), arguing that on-chain payments are the “inevitable end of the category” of ownership and liens. Although he stopped short of announcing a product, he said the company’s recent acquisition of Doma’s escrow division is “clearly a step in the right direction.”
Nejatian is not waiting for macro improvements
Analysts questioned whether earnings targets were realistic as mortgage rates remained high. But it was in his closing remarks that Nejatian was most candid. A tough market is not an explainable headwind, and that’s the point.
Quoting Warren Buffett’s famous line about finding out who is swimming without pants when the tide goes out, Nejatian said the housing market downturn was exactly what he signed up for. “I didn’t take this job because I was hoping the macro economy would turn around and we would be bailed out,” he said. “Hard mode selected.”
Whether Opendoor’s turnaround can be sustained as the acquisition price increases will be a central question heading into the second half of 2026.
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