Prices fell in more than half of major cities in February, but prices continued to rise in inventory-constrained markets.
According to one prominent real estate economist, the long-term slowdown in home price growth has finally stalled at the national level.
“Home price growth has slowed every month over the past 12 months with the exception of October 2025,” Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, said in a statement Tuesday. “In February, more than half of the major U.S. subways experienced a year-over-year decline in fares.”
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Lisa Sturtevant
Mr. Sturtevant’s conclusion is that “home price growth at the national level is stagnant.”
Sturtevant was reacting to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index released on Tuesday. The index rose only 0.7% in February compared to the same month last year, slowing down from the previous month’s 0.8% rise. “More than half of major U.S. metropolitan markets recorded year-over-year price declines in February,” S&P Global said in a report on the latest index on Tuesday.
Denver was the weakest market in the nation in February, with home prices in the Colorado metropolitan area dropping 2.2%. The report also noted that Los Angeles and Washington, D.C., have been added to the “list of decliners.”
The report also noted that inflation in February outpaced house price growth for the ninth consecutive month.
While the index shows that the housing market is facing challenges, at least for people looking to sell their homes, Sturtevant sees a silver lining. He said in a statement that “some markets are still showing strong home price growth” even as other markets are declining. Inventory is key.
“Prices continue to rise in many markets in the Northeast and Midwest where inventory is limited,” Sturtevant explained. “Alternatively, markets where inventories exceed pre-pandemic levels are creating downward price pressure.”
Mr. Sturtevant also pointed to the “equity cushion” that many homeowners today enjoy: “You don’t have to sell even if you want to. This phenomenon keeps inventory relatively low and prices relatively resilient.”
In other words, Mr. Sturtevant doesn’t think a major crash is coming anytime soon.
“Despite the rebound from rising prices, there are no signs that home prices will fall significantly. In the current market, there are relatively few ‘forced sellers’ who have to part with any price. Instead, there are markets where sellers are modestly lowering their asking prices to attract buyers. Or, if they don’t get the price they want, sellers are taking their homes off the market,” Sturtevant added.
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