A SpaceX Flacon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 40 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida, on June 12, 2026.
Joe Radle | Getty Images
SpaceX made its debut on the Nasdaq market on Friday, rising more than 19% on its first day of trading, giving it a market valuation of more than $2 trillion. But while the company’s entry into the public markets is imminent, some of its other long-term plans are years away.
Elon Musk’s company repeatedly focused on “the moon, Mars and beyond” in its initial public offering prospectus filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company’s ambitions for Mars are so large that Musk won’t receive his restricted stock bonus unless SpaceX establishes a colony on Mars with more than 1 million residents.
But when that happens is years away from now, traders at prediction market platform Kalsi believe.
Traders believe there is only an 18% chance that SpaceX will launch a crewed mission to Mars by 2030. Since the event contract first began in March 2024, traders have never seen a mission more than 1 in 4 in 10 years.
If SpaceX confirms a crewed mission to Mars by December 31, 2029, the event contract will resolve to “yes.”
Traders’ uncertainty reflects SpaceX’s own plans. SpaceX made clear in its prospectus that it does not have a vision for when a Mars mission will materialize.
“Many of our efforts…involve significant technical complexity, unproven or non-existent technologies, and such efforts may not achieve commercial feasibility,” SpaceX said. “As a result, it may be difficult or impossible to determine a schedule for some of our initiatives that involve unproven or emerging innovations.”
But while the exact timeline may be unknown, it’s clear the company is focused on Mars. The planet is mentioned 63 times in the prospectus itself and once in a photo caption within the document.
Never miss the most trusted news moments in business news when you choose CNBC as your preferred source on Google.
Source link
