[Today’s Iran War post launched largely complete but I had to run out. So any updates will come in comments]
Even though, as we will present below, the Saudis are reported to have gotten oil exports to about 70% of their old normal, Ansar Allah attacks are apparently having enough of an impact to get the Saudis to lean on new friends. We see the apparent immediate intent of the so-called Mecca Alliance among the Saudis, Turkiye, and Pakistan: to use the military muscle of the latter two to bring Ansar Allah to heel.
Admittedly, this report comes from Reuters, which has a history of running pro-Western pieces that proved not to be accurate. Nevertheless, from Exclusive: Pakistan warns Iran to rein in Houthis as Riyadh strikes back:
Pakistan has delivered a Saudi warning to Iran to rein in its Yemeni Houthi allies after they stepped up attacks on the kingdom, in a coordinated effort to prevent the crisis from spiralling, Saudi, Pakistani and Iranian sources said.
The Houthis struck an airbase in Khamis Mushait and oil infrastructure in nearby cities on Tuesday, wounding 73 people, in one of the biggest attacks on Saudi Arabia since the start of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran in February.
Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said on Wednesday that Saudi warplanes carried out 54 airstrikes across various Yemeni provinces over the past 12 hours, adding that they would “not go unanswered and unpunished”…
Pakistan’s warning to Iran carries significant weight because of its defence pact with Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
While officials in Islamabad stressed any military role would be confined to defending Saudi territory, Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif said attacks spilling into the kingdom could trigger a joint security arrangement involving Riyadh, Ankara and Islamabad.
Note this Jerusalem Post story appears to have gone live before the Reuters article. From Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia is a test of new Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan pact – analysis:
Currently, people are wondering whether Pakistan or Turkey will respond to the Houthi attacks. Historically, both countries have been wary of any conflict with Iran. Unlike them, Saudi Arabia has been very critical of the Islamic Republic….
Over the past few months, the Houthi threat has increasingly worsened. Despite this, Riyadh apparently believes that Yemen’s troops can repel the Houthis.
On September 8, Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Ministry strongly condemned the Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia….
Turkey then called on the Houthis to cease their aggression. These statements, however, do not mean that Turkey plans to join Saudi Arabia in its fight against them.
Currently, Turkey has military assets near the area because it has been operating in Somalia. Notably, in late August, Turkey freed sailors from Somali pirates…
Turkiye Today reported: “Pakistan is likely to carry out airstrikes against Houthi forces in Yemen at Saudi Arabia’s request, according to Pakistani sources speaking to Turkiye Today. A source noted that the attacks may take place soon and will be made public shortly afterward.”
The report noted that “one of the military priorities for the Pakistani attacks would be to clear the Houthis from Saadah, along with other regions, according to one Pakistani source. However, a final decision on attacking Yemen’s Houthis has not been made.”.
Additional commentary:
Pakistan is intervening on the side of Saudi-backed Yemeni gov’t forces against the Houthi?
At the same tome Pakistan has cut off truck and rail shipments from China to Iran?
I wonder how big the US-Saudi bribe was for it to back stab the Mullah Regime of Iran? 🤔 https://t.co/qnRXhYXKxq
— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) September 9, 2026
Many readers, including Americans, in concert with the shift in global opinion, have been rooting for Iran, for opposing the Gaza genocide, standing up to US imperialism, and fighting back effectively after the US and Israel launched an illegal, unjustified, poorly thought out war. It has become obvious that Iran’s best weapon is not the possible development of a nuclear bomb but its control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has become more open in saying that increasing oil prices will pressure the pain-averse US and with other costs, above all the destruction of US bases in the Middle East, is intended to force a retreat.
It is thus puzzling to see, even as Iran has increased its strikes on tankers in recent days, that more oil has been getting out of the Persian Gulf to the markets . Admittedly, the very last set of Iran strikes may not yet be reflected in the decisions of ship owners and masters. And paper oil prices have now risen to over $100 a barrel, so Iran may regard that as sufficient pressure for now.
Sal Mercogliano had an in-depth talk with Samir Madani, one of the co-heads of Tanker Trackers. The discussion includes key details like how the covert transits along the Oman side work and why they come in bursts (to take advantage of when there is no satellite coverage). Madani stresses that the Administration is not lying when it talks about big transit numbers on certain days, but that this is misleading. The better measure is average volumes over a week or longer.
Here is the part from Madani I found surprising, on the increase in oil flows. From a lightly-edited machine transcript:
It is very irregular bursts, but these bursts are actually becoming a lot more noisier now. There’s a lot more volume going during the days that those convoys do pass through….
And that baseline is something like if we if we wrap up the entire region including Oman and Iran we were counting something like 18.5 million barrels of crude oil per day that vacated the region. Now in May June it bottomed out to just I think it was 6 million barrels per day and then it bounced up now. So now it’s I think it’s over 11 12 or so if I remember correctly and it’s around 39% down from the baseline. Now how long will this last?
Well, the way I see it is that if I look at the past 28 days average, I’m going to count the barrels that came out of the out into the Arabian Sea from the Gulf of Oman.
That’s the accumulative aggregate total what’s coming out daily. And I can see that number is at 9.85 million barrels per day currently over the past 7 days, but it is up from 8.2 million barrels over the past 28 days. So it’s trending higher now.
Madani also points out that even though no Iranian crude has left the Gulf since July, it has been exporting refined products, particularly liquified petroleum gas, in non-sanctioned ships.
As far as I can tell, only one vessel has been hit since yesterday’s update:
Oil Tanker H!t In Iraqi Waters | Asia One News #Asiaone #Asiaonenews #Iran #USA #USIran #OilTankers #KhargIsland #MiddleEast pic.twitter.com/jI2ueeY7at
— ASIA ONE NEWS (@AsiaOne_News) September 9, 2026
The US has retaliated, hitting what sure sounds like the same target set on the Iran coast. From Anadolu Agency in Explosions reported across southern Iran’s coastal areas:
Several explosions were reported early Thursday in coastal areas of southern Iran, including Sirik, Minab and Qeshm Island, according to Iranian media.
Iran’s official IRNA news agency said several areas in Sirik were hit by “hostile projectiles,” without providing further details.
Fars News Agency reported explosions in Sirik, Minab and on Qeshm Island, citing local authorities as saying the sounds came from the direction of the sea.
And the lead item on Aljazeera’s landing page:
But there is also reason to think there are limits to haw far the US can go, aside from its declining weapons stocks:
Seems likely that there is even MORE escalation taking place this afternoon in the Strait of Hormuz.
While President Trump is doubling and tripling down on his “Tanker for Tanker” policy, it seems as though he does not understand that in order to move oil…
There actually has… https://t.co/ifcdbBlSjH
— Brett Erickson (@BrettErickson28) September 9, 2026
Trump continues to try to downplay the surge in oil prices and as a result, US gas and diesel prices. CNN covers his latest three card Monte attempt in Trump says Iran war will end after the midterms and gas prices will fall:
President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he expects Iran will abandon its war effort after the US midterm elections – and he conceded American gas prices are unlikely to fall before then.
Speaking to reporters on his way to the GOP midterm convention in Dallas, Trump asserted that Iran would continue the war into November in an effort to damage him politically.
“I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm,” Trump said of gas prices coming down. “They’re desperate to try and affect the election so that we can get a nice weak group of people in there and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon.”
But he added that he believes Iran is near collapse and that it would seek an end to the conflict “immediately after the election,” prompting oil prices to tumble downward.
Notice that this is an admission that Iran is in charge of when the conflict ends.
Trump is also engaging in the bad habit of picking curtains for a house he has not bought. From the Anadolu Agency landing page:
As if this were any surprise. From Middle East Eye, Qatar and Pakistan carry Trump’s message to Iran: He won’t return to the MoU:
On 24 August, Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, travelled to Tehran to deliver an important message as regional tensions intensified and the US reimposed its naval blockade of Iranian ports.
That same day in Washington, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a “D-Day” economic pressure campaign against Iran, warning that countries continuing to trade with Tehran could face secondary sanctions.
In Tehran, Munir met senior Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and General Mohsen Rezaei, the newly appointed secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
According to two sources close to the Iranian government, Munir had a single message from President Donald Trump: “I won’t return to the MoU.”
Mind you, even if really Trump means this now, he’s so fabulously mercurial that this might not hold, as long as a “deal” was massaged enough so Trump could pretend he was not returning to the MOU. But as we know, this is a non-starter because Iran has upped his demand. So Trump is acting like he has no interest in joining a club that won’t have him.
Contrast these cheery Trump takes with a fresh Bloomberg story, Iran Ready for More Intense War, Won’t Relent, Official Says:
Iran is ready for a more intense war and will escalate its counterstrikes if the US continues attacking its territory and infrastructure, according to a senior official.
The country’s leaders see the war with the US as posing an existential threat and believe they have little choice but to keep fighting until they’re confident Washington will be too wary to attack again in future.
Iran has been rebuilding its military capabilities and has enough missiles for a lengthy conflict, with its leaders deciding how to retaliate faster and more efficiently to impose greater costs on the US.
Bloomberg highlighted that message in the lead headline now on its landing page:
In keeping with the news of higher transits from Tanker Trackers, the level of coverage at Lloyd’s List on conditions in the Middle East has dropped markedly, with a notable absence of hand-wringing. Today was the first time in a few days that Lloyd’s List gave the region prominent play, and that piece was cheery. From the lead story, Yanbu detour via SuMed pipeline and Suez Canal is now in full swing:
Yanbu crude exports are back over 4m bpd, with over 70% of volume headed north to either the SuMed pipeline or the Suez Canal
In Sidi Kerir, at the Mediterranean terminus of SuMed, crude exports averaged 2.2m bpd over the past five weeks, nearly triple normal levels
Exports to Asia now account for 43% of Sidi Kerir export volumes versus zero before the Yanbu detour; 59% of Sidi Kerir crude exports are on VLCCs versus 5% previously
Put a roadblock in front of a crude trade — sanctions, missiles, whatever — and the trade will flow around it like a stream around a stone. Such is the case with the very roundabout crude business from Yanbu to Egypt to Asia via the Cape of Good Hope
gCaptain also not been giving all that much attention to Middle East developments. It is odd not to see this sort of information in a prominent story on either site:
Surging Tanker Rates Signal a Deepening Global Energy Crisis
Global tanker freight rates are surging to record levels with little respite in sight, a sign of the growing strain in oil markets as traders, shipowners, producers and buyers grapple with a drawn-out conflict in the… pic.twitter.com/FhGSQtZGWI
— Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) (@chigrl) September 10, 2026
But per the thinly-veiled threats from Saudi allies Pakistan and Turkiye, Ansar Allah seems to be on the front foot. And it imposes costs on the Saudis not just by messing with shipping but also by attacking infrastructure, as it has at Jizan. But as of this juncture, Saudi production and shipments look to be less bad than one might think looking at the blows landed by Ansar Allah:
🇾🇪⚔️🇸🇦 ❗️CONFIRMED: Ansarallah (the Houthis) have taken full control over Camp Khalid, one of the major strategic positions overlooking the Taizz-Mokha road
Fierce clashes are currently still going on, and the Saudi-backed PLC forces are bringing in reinforcements in an effort… pic.twitter.com/qoaBvt72ep
— dana (@dana916) September 9, 2026
Yemen’s Ansarallah forces are reportedly advancing towards Bab el Mandeb and the Al-Wazi’yah district.
Reliable sources reported confrontations around Camp Khalid, which if it fell, would mean this January map should be updated with more green. https://t.co/Acw4gyyZxA pic.twitter.com/j4QNOqKyCP
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) September 9, 2026
❗️ Saudi-backed Yemeni Defense Minister Taher al-Aqili’s convoy reportedly BLOWN UP during visit to Dhale Governorate — South24
Unconfirmed reports say one of his bodyguards was taken prisoner and minister is currently besieged pic.twitter.com/Ks7uXp2y4v
— RT (@RT_com) September 9, 2026
This is the first time we have seen Saudi-backed Yemen forces using full multidomain mobile warfare against the Houthi continuously and at scale.
This change in military-operational behavior means a whole lot of staff work and real time air-ground command and control here to… https://t.co/lfwp68O5Jn
— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) September 9, 2026
But on the narrative war front, Associated Press has taken note of the fact that Iran’s Resistance allies are cooperating more closely than before, as if that was unfair, as opposed to predictable. From Iran is forging a new ring of proxies to threaten US allies in the Gulf, officials say:
In July, Saudi Arabia and the United States bombed Iran-backed militias in Iraq after blaming them for drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities that had been claimed by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, another Iranian ally.
Now, regional officials tell The Associated Press that the Houthis helped the Iraqi militias plan and execute the two-day swarm attack, showing a new level of coordination.
Iran spent decades building up armed groups on Israel’s frontiers that suffered major losses in the wars following Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack out of Gaza. Israel battered the Palestinian militants as well as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which had been Iran’s most powerful ally.
Regional officials and experts say Iran is now using the Iraqi militias and the Houthis to threaten Saudi Arabia and other American allies in the Gulf in order to drive up the costs of the war launched by the U.S. and Israel in February.
It is a risky strategy. A wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities on Tuesday threatened to reignite full-scale war with the kingdom. Iraq has ordered militias to disarm by the end of this month, though powerful Iran-backed groups have refused to do so. A new American effort to economically isolate Iran could spark further escalation.
The Houthi involvement in the Iraqi drone attack was confirmed by two Saudi officials, citing intelligence, and a senior Iraqi security official. They said Houthi emissaries worked in an operations room run by Iraqi militias…
Two officials with the Popular Mobilization Forces, an umbrella group of militias that is officially part of Iraq’s security forces, denied involvement in the attack on Saudi Arabia and denied that the Houthis were operating under its auspices. The PMF includes powerful militias backed by Iran that sometimes act independently.
Other tidbits: The IAEA and per the wags, the US are engaging in a wet noodle lashing at the US. The IAEA has referred Iran to the UN Security Council for nuclear non-compliance. Iran is not happy about this move, as the PressTV landing page shows:
However, as MaxOsint Intel explains on Twitter, this is not a path to the one thing the UN could to to coerce Iran, which is to impose legal sanctions, unlike the US kind:
The IAEA Board of Governors adopted a resolution requesting the Director General to report Iran to the UN Security Council and General Assembly for failing to comply with its nuclear reporting obligations, passing by 23 votes in favor, three against, and eight abstentions — AFP.
➡️ Russia, China, and Niger voted against the resolution, which was submitted by Britain, France, Germany, and the United States, marking the first time Iran has been referred to the Security Council in 20 years, according to two diplomats who evaluated the move as largely symbolic because Moscow and Beijing hold veto power over any sanctions against Tehran.
Finally, there are reports (also discussed on several shows on Mario Nawfal’s channel, such as one between Brandon Weichert and Martin Armstrong) of Iran engaging in presumed nuclear related construction at Pickaxe Mountain and a resulting US (or US turning Israel loose) plan to use tactical nuclear bombs on it. Nevertheless:
Iran construction at the deeply buried Pickaxe Mountain facility is continuing despite U.S. threats.
The site is protected by solid granite deep underground, making it extremely difficult for conventional weapons to reach.
Iran’s strategic capabilities cannot be eliminated… pic.twitter.com/ZeTyQNwuf7
— Ebrahim Zolfaghari (@IranTimes72) September 9, 2026
⚡️BREAKING: The Pentagon has created a site to Simulate Strikes on Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain Nuclear Facility
The U.S. awarded an Emergency $1.2 Million contract for a Classified Weapon to strike the Pickaxe Mountain Nuclear Site
At the moment, only a Tactical Nuclear Weapon can… pic.twitter.com/L50XPHVFry
— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) September 9, 2026
Quite a few experts, such as Larry Wilkerson, have opined that even nukes were very unlikely to damage operations in the mountain. Weirdly, there is even an alternative media rumor that the date would be October 5 or 6; both Armstrong and Matthew Ho in an earlier talk presented it.
We have not reported on China’s return to oil purchases due to not seeing great data so far. And it is only now that some key outlets are describing how China contained the oil price surge…after China has stepped back into the market. While the story does acknowledge that at the top, this is yet one of too many instances of the financial media spinning reports to favor energy price containment. From CNBC in ‘Saved the day’: How China helped keep the lid on oil price surge as Iran war disrupted supplies:
“China kind of saved the day,” and helped the world avoid the “doomsday scenario” as the Strait of Hormuz closure choked off 20% of global energy supply, according to S&P Global Ratings.
Beijing slashed its imports after the war broke out and tapped into its stockpiles, keeping a lid on global oil prices and safeguarding its economy.
But signs are emerging that China’s crude imports may be gradually rebounding, posing a test for global oil markets and the economy.
Readers have to scroll down to find this section:
China’s crude imports rebounded 22% and 6.2% month on month in July and August, respectively, though still significantly below last year’s level, according to official trade data.
Should China resume importing at its pre-war pace, the drag on global growth from elevated oil prices would deepen well beyond current estimates, said Krishna Srinivasan, director for the Asia and Pacific Department at the International Monetary Fund.
But this is adding to oil price pressures. However, there are also signs of demand destruction:
#China’s private oil refiners may cut processing runs in the coming weeks as traditional sources of crude supply become scarcer and costs surge, potentially hurting demand in the biggest importer.
Teapots — as the companies are known — face a twin challenge, with shipments from…
— Giovanni Staunovo🛢 (@staunovo) September 9, 2026
Done for today! I am swamped tomorrow but Nat will be on!
