[Today’s Iran war update fired before complete because an overly dynamic situation today as some tech glitches slowed your humble blogger down. Forgive this post being over-reliant on videos, since they can provide good breaking news overviews. Please return or refresh this page at 8:00 AM EDT for a final version]
While it had briefly looked like the US was attempting to slow-walk escalation with Iran so as to better husband limited resources and reduce the level of Iran war coverage in the US in the runup to the midterms, the wildly erratic and impulsive Trump Administration predictably fell prey to its own desperate need to dominate. The US fired on five Iran tankers. in effect trying to use kinetic action to inflict economic damage short of the old US threat, to attack the Iran grid and other energy infrastructure. Iran launched large-scale missile attacks at US bases, which look to be the biggest since April. Iran also warned that if the US keeps hitting Iranian tankers, it will destroy Gulf State energy infrastructure.
This happened as Iran scored a big PR and not-trivial military score in capturing what it said was a state of the art Arundil sea drone, this with its supposedly destroyed navy. CENTCOM conceded the loss but tried to minimize it by saying the drone was defective and an older model. Given CENTCOM’s record for credibility, one would tend to give Iran the benefit of the doubt.
Yemen is also continuing to escalate against the Saudis. And in a very much overdue development, the UK is sanctioning Israeli business in the West Bank and entities that support them. Eleven countries joined the UK, which means this action was well coordianted. Critically, JAxios reports that Trump did not oppose them. Israel is throwing a monster hissy but that is not likely to change much.
First to some overviews of the latest US-Iran exchanges. From Aljazeera’s landing page:
From its live feed:
The US military says it destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers following Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) ballistic missile attacks on a US Navy warship.
In response, IRGC says its forces targeted two American vessels and eight oil tankers, along with 10 additional “violating ships” accused of attempting to pass a “prohibited and unsafe zone” in the Strait of Hormuz.
From NO1:
Iran fired 30–50 ballistic missiles at US bases in Jordan, its largest salvo in five months. Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Azraq was the main target, with Ghadr cluster-warhead, Kheibar Shekan and Emad missiles fired from Yazd, Isfahan and Lorestan (war_noir, Def_Century, DD_Geopolitics, zerohedge). Multiple confirmed impacts on aircraft shelters and maintenance areas. Confidence: HIGH
Salvo counts diverge and both are on the record – treat the range as the story.AMK_Mapping_ counts ~30 missiles vs close to 100 PAC-2/3 interceptors; HormuzReport says 50+ interceptors against ~13 MRBMs; Osinttechnical says 60+ interceptors. Photographers on the ground counted 71 (Ahmed175143). Confidence: HIGH
CENTCOM destroyed five Iranian crude oil carriers; IRGC retaliated against ten vessels. CENTCOM’s own statement frames it as a response to two IRGC ballistic-missile attacks on a US warship, and claims no American personnel harmed (CENTCOM). The IRGC says it hit eight tankers in the Strait plus two named US destroyers – with the ratio now established: US hit 3 on Sept 5, Iran answered with 6; US hit 5, Iran answered with 10 (HormuzLetter). Confidence: HIGH
We have noted before that Hormuz Letter often posts unverified rumors or Iran claims as fact (Hormuz Report is more cautious). And note the big divergence in the estimates of US interceptor burn. Nevertheless, it looks like a lot!
However, NO1 repeatedly over-egged the pudding by depicting the IRGC attacks on destroyers as “hits”. For Iran to strike, as opposed to shoot uncomfortably close to, a US Navy vessel would be a massive escalation. Contrast NO1 with the PressTV landing page:
From the lead story, IRGC targets 2 US naval vessels, 8 tankers and 10 ships in retaliatory strikes:
Two US vessels, eight oil tankers, and 10 other ships attempting to pass through the prohibited zone of the Strait of Hormuz have been targeted in the latest wave of Iran’s retaliatory operations amid the war of aggression against the country, according to the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC).
In a statement issued at dawn on Wednesday, the IRGC said the attacks were carried out in response to the US terrorist military’s attack on five Iranian oil tankers in the Persian Gulf region….
Earlier in the night, the IRGC said its Aerospace Force had struck the US’s al-Azraq Airbase in Jordan with a missile barrage, inflicting “heavy damage on the hostile forces.”
According to the statement, the strike involved both solid- and liquid-fueled ballistic missiles and targeted maintenance and repair hangars, aircraft preparation facilities, and shelters housing F-35, F-16, and F-15 warplanes.
Malcolm Nance, in a fresh talk with Mario Nawfal, provides more detail on the strikes on the US bases and Iran tankers.
From a lightly-edited machine transcript:
First thing I want to put into context for your guests. There is a new US policy happening in the Persian Gulf and it is not just let’s tap a tanker, hit a tanker, disable a tanker.
They are now sinking Iranian tankers.
That’s the mission. They are not using like small hellfire missiles. They’re using thousand poung bombs. They are destroying these vessels. We know that one of them went down completely today or yesterday based on its oil slick. The others are completely destroyed and on fire.
They probably decided they were going to destroy these tankers off of Bandar Abbas and more significantly hit that one off of Kharg Island that apparently they are hitting Iranian-owned tankers, part of the Iranian shadow fleet, to get rid of the shadow fleet. Now don’t forget there’s about 20 vessels sitting southwest of India, off Sri Lanka right now. And it remains to be seen whether we’re putting torpedoes into those things from submarines.
But the Iranians are making it clear there’s going to be a price to pay now and what we’re watching is you know in your video a massive amount of interceptors coming going up to challenge these Iranian uh ballistic missiles people have been counting all over Iran. How many were going in the air and they were coming from everywhere from as far south as Bushear all the way up near Tehran, all the ballistic missile cities….From the first report of this, that we were attacking the tankers, to the first Iranian attack was about an hour, hour and a quarter based on what I could calculate. Let’s give it hour and a half. They had a nationally coordinated ballistic missile launch at US forces pre-planned, large numbers, missiles ready, launched in mass, right? Anyone that tells you that the Iranians don’t have capability doesn’t know what they’re talking about….
Another cautionary note:
Trump is such a bad ally, he knew targeting Iranian Oil Tankers would result in retaliation against US Allies’ Oil Tankers (US oil tankers are all thousanes miles away), he still went ahead and now 18 Oil Tankers were allegedly struck.
What’s next ? https://t.co/bVENptbBgT
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) September 9, 2026
Nance on Iran’s use of cluster munitions in these strikes:
We know that the Cororum Shar 4 [sp?}, the large missiles they were using on Tel Aviv, are generally the ones that carry these cluster bomb warheads. And the one intercept that I saw of a Patriot coming off, sure, it went after the primary warhead. But don’t forget, they’re dumping over 40 of these, between 40 and 70, depending on who you want to believe, , which intelligence agency you want to believe, of these basketball-sized explosives, which means they’re going for area denial. Any aircraft that are on the runway, any aircraft that are not in a hardened shelter, it’s going to be a lot of fragmentation….
But this is a massive attack. And you know, Iran, they love multi-phase attacks. They just won’t do one.
Now to the fun Iran is having with its capture of a US sea drone:
⚡️BREAKING: The IRGC has released Footage of the Seizure of US Navy’s Advanced Dive-LD Autonomous Underwater Vehicle
The United States was using it to Detect Mines in the Strait of Hormuz
The Dive-LD contains Classified Technology and Iran will likely Share it with Russia and… pic.twitter.com/JznS0A2C7T
— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) September 8, 2026
B-R-E-A-K-I-N-G:
The US built the most advanced ghost sub ever. Cutting-edge underwater AI, classified tech, the whole brochure. Smart.
Then they sent it to a strait controlled by people who can hear a shrimp sneeze in that channel. Not smart.
It came in cocky, like a tourist…
— Iran in Ghana (@IRAN_GHANA) September 8, 2026
Additional information below on the U.S. AUV captured by Iran. Per a CENTCOM official speaking to @KellieMeyerNews, “The defective drone was an older model that neither collected sensitive data nor carried any classified sonar or radar equipment. U.S. operations in area waters… https://t.co/9FVVmHbR4W pic.twitter.com/M8NNPBVbkd
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) September 8, 2026
Versus:
CENTCOM Spokesperson claims the underwater drone was an older model… despite photos proving that it’s a new Dive-LD model.
This is such a significant loss of technology to their enemy, they just can’t admit it.. https://t.co/rFjaupDZJf pic.twitter.com/ilaQCpiMdj
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) September 8, 2026
Nance in his interview above also contends that the Iran approach to sea drones is far more productive. Looks like the Navy was sold yet another over-priced, unduly feature heavy device:
Iran has vessels that have this capability. They have UUVs, but they’re UUV suicide torpedoes, right? Which to tell you the truth, between the two vessels, Iran’s got a better capability, right? Because their things aren’t there to, you know, go out and do a multi-phase, go out, search the bottom, tow a mine hunting sonar, bring down divers, or do whatever these little things you’re doing. Iran’s UUVs kill things. All right? They go out into the ocean. You don’t know they’re there. Ship blows up, right? Torpedoes that think and hunt. Now, which one of these two would you rather have to encounter? Something that looks like a Beluga whale that has all these multi-mission capabilities. Iran will quickly reverse engineer this.
We will be terse in our coverage of the latest on the Ansar Allah-Saudi front:
Iranian-backed Houthi rebels launched a wave of attacks on some cities in Saudi Arabia, wounding 73 people and leaving extensive structural damage, according to video released by the Saudi Press Agency https://t.co/QhnOs42fEc pic.twitter.com/ojpd3nHiD3
— Reuters (@Reuters) September 9, 2026
The conflict in Yemen has once again spilled beyond its borders, with Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia and fierce ground battles across multiple fronts.
The UN is warning of the potential for a full-scale war.
Al Jazeera’s Yousef Mawry reports. pic.twitter.com/60Ez0F0HUc
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) September 9, 2026
Will more intense action lead to an effort to get Saudi Arabia’s Mecca Accords partners to man up?
🇵🇰 Joint defense clause ‘will become operational’ if Saudi Arabia attacked
Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif stated that any aggression against one signatory of the joint defense pact will trigger a collective response from Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan.
Earlier,… pic.twitter.com/tMINJkS3y3
— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) September 9, 2026
Experts have doubted how effective this triumvirate would be given the lack of prior coordination and an integrated command structure.
Now to the UK-led sanctions on West Bank settlements. From the New York Times in Israeli Allies Ban Trade With Settlements as U.K. Cites ‘Ethnic Cleansing.’ Oddly the article does not include the full list of nations that followed the UK initiative:
Britain, Canada and France on Tuesday announced sanctions on Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, a symbolic step by three once-staunch allies illustrating Israel’s deepening isolation after the devastating war in Gaza and settler violence in the West Bank.
Israel has been increasingly ostracized over its conduct of the war in Gaza, in which tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed. International attention is now focused on its tightening grip on the West Bank and its expansion of illegal settlements there. In recent weeks, Israeli extremist settlers have repeatedly attacked Palestinians as the military has stood by.
Israel responded to Britain’s announcement with fury and indignation and announced countermeasures. Israel said it would close the British Consulate General in East Jerusalem….
Britain’s package of measures was announced on Tuesday in Parliament by Ed Miliband, who became foreign secretary in July. It represents the clearest shift in British foreign policy since Andy Burnham became prime minister that month.
“Today marks the beginning of a new approach,” Mr. Miliband told lawmakers. He said that the British government “agrees that there is ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in areas of the West Bank — perpetrated by settler terrorists.” All too often, he added, “the Israeli government has turned a blind eye to this and worse.”
In a speech with an often deeply personal tone, Mr. Miliband said that he had made his announcement as a “proud British Jew” who was “unwavering” in his support for the state of Israel. He added, however, that Britain had concluded that the occupation was unlawful in line with a ruling by the International Court of Justice.
If you go to Twitter and put in “Miliband”
As indicated at the top of the post, Axios broke the story that Trump did not oppose the UK sanctions. Ynet provides the full list of states joining the UK. From Twelve countries announce sanctions against West Bank settlements, Israel threatens response:
British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband announced Tuesday that the United Kingdom would impose economic sanctions on Israeli settlements in the West Bank, after saying in recent weeks that London intended to “reset” its policy toward Israel.
Meanwhile, the foreign ministers of Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and Britain issued a joint statement on the two-state solution…
The countries said they intended to “impose restrictions on trade with settlements considered illegal under international law.”
Janta Ka, even though it does not headline it, includes the key presentations by Foreign Minister Miliband, highlighting that he depicted the settler conduct as ethnic cleansing, terrorism, and violations of international law. The segment also includes the incandescent Israel reaction to this move. See staring at 7:00:
So far, Miliband seems to be parrying the predictable attacks well:
Ed Miliband: “I obviously don’t agree with [the chief Rabbi]. I speak as a British Jew. I don’t believe it was a dark day for British Jews. I actually think that standing up for our values, of freedom, rule of law, and end to suffering, is the right thing to do” pic.twitter.com/Vu0nY5lt94
— Saul Staniforth (@SaulStaniforth) September 9, 2026
Briefly, on the economic front. The lead story at the Financial Times now:
From the article:
Oil prices rose above $100 a barrel for the first time since July on Wednesday as an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East raised fears over global supplies.
Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, rose as much as 3.1 per cent to $100.95 a barrel, topping $100 for the first time since July 24.
The rise comes as the US and Iran battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passed before the war, with the warring parties locked in a cycle of tit-for-tat strikes.
Note that the prior peak took place during the 13 days when the US restarted a intense combat phase, after it decided to renege on the MOU.
From the Wall Street Journal in its lead article, Oil Hits $100 for First Time Since July:
Traders have become accustomed to hundred-dollar oil since Washington’s conflict with Tehran started, but it has been a while. The last time Brent crude futures hit $100 was in July, before slipping below $80 in early August. Today’s spike puts prices about $20 higher in just a few weeks.
European natural gas prices are also jumping this morning, rising nearly 4% to trade close to 79 euros a megawatt-hour—on pace for their highest close since late 2022.
U.S. stock futures are inching lower, led by tech-focused Nasdaq-100 contracts. Overseas stocks are mixed.
Treasury yields are also edging higher as traders await details from the Treasury Department later today on the size of tomorrow’s buyback operation for longer-term bonds.
Further commentary:
Before the Iran war, many forecasters predicted oil prices in the $50’s
Today, crude is near $99 — and $120 is plausible
Getting there would require 3 conditions:
1. Military escalation
2. Hormuz closure
3. Disruption to alternative export routes
Let’s take them in turn
1/5 pic.twitter.com/tqRewGXxtB
— Ziad Daoud (@ZiadMDaoud) September 8, 2026
Even if though oil prices are not terrible in inflation-adjusted terms, this rise comes as households and businesses have been hit by other cost increases:
Price increases since start of the Iran war…
European Natural Gas: +143%
Sulfur: +110%
Heating Oil: +78%
Jet Fuel: +62%
Diesel: +57%
Rice: +49%
WTI Crude Oil: +41%
Gasoline: +39%
Cotton: +32%
Sugar: +30%
Wheat: +23%
Palm Oil: +23%
Corn: +16% pic.twitter.com/ZXQSGbN2rQ
— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) September 8, 2026
The Financial Times also describes how Iran is using crypto to evade US sanctions. Hardly a surprise, but this is another “hoist on their own petard” result. A big reason the US was keen to back crypto was for the covert funding of regime change operations. From Iran turns to crypto to shore up economy:
Iran is turning to cryptocurrencies to try and keep trade flowing during the US war and blockade, relaxing its strict foreign currency controls in order to counter tightening sanctions.
Long cut out of the global financial system, Iran has for years imposed onerous hurdles on importers and exporters in order to control the supply of foreign currency, prompting businesses to build up what the judiciary estimates is more than $100bn in undeclared earnings at home and overseas.
But Iranian businesses, regime insiders and analysts say the central bank has in recent months quietly encouraged traders to repatriate funds by whatever means necessary to help sustain the battered economy.
This includes using cryptocurrencies, notably Tether but also bitcoin, to settle cross-border transactions through Iranian crypto exchanges, the people said.
Under this more relaxed system, traders can also exchange foreign currency through the country’s large open market rather than using government-approved rates, and can use export proceeds to finance imports directly, without having to channel their earnings through the official foreign-exchange system….
Iran has spent years building a system designed to circumvent sanctions, including with the help of cryptocurrencies, but its efforts to find alternative means to sustain cross-border transactions have taken on added urgency during the war….
Before the war, Iranian exporters of oil and other goods were required to return a large proportion of their earnings to Iran in foreign currency and sell them through a designated government-run platform at official exchange rates, which were often far below the market price.
This unpopular system led many exporters to park funds overseas or bring them back without declaring them. Zabihollah Khodaian, head of Iran’s General Inspection Organisation, said last month that more than 20,000 individuals and companies had failed to meet commitments to return the equivalent of €94bn.
Khodaian said that among them were state-owned oil and gas companies, including the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company, the National Iranian Gas Company and the Iranian Offshore Oil Company, which he said had “chaotic accounts”.
While foreign currency exchange houses in neighbouring countries remain the main channel for businesses to repatriate funds, the central bank’s recent relaxation is designed to give them more options for settling at least part of those obligations, the people said…
In 2025, nearly $10bn worth of crypto was moved through Iran, according to data group TRM Labs.
Done for today! See you tomorrow!
