Today’s Iran War update starts with a thousand words worth of NY Times front page from Thursday evening. Not a good day for the Empire and its fortunes.
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) September 11, 2026
Ansar Allah On a Roll
Yesterday, Yves left us with Ansar Allah “on the front foot” at Camp Khalid and the Taizz–Mokha road, and flagged the Bab el-Mandeb advance as reported-but-unconfirmed.
Ansar Allah continued its roll Thursday, seizing what Al Jazeera called the “strategic Red Sea city of Mocha” . They also explained why Mocha matters in a separate piece:
Mocha’s geography makes its capture a global concern. The city sits approximately 75km (47 miles) north of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
Known as the Gate of Tears, this narrow passage is a critical artery for crude oil and fuel travelling from the Gulf to the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal, as well as for Asian commodities and Russian oil.
Al Jazeera’s Yousef Mawry explained that controlling Mocha could give the Houthis a “stranglehold along the Bab al-Mandeb”.
Furthermore, it severs critical anti-Houthi supply lines, including “the road linking Mocha with Taiz” running south from Mocha, and supply lines through Mocha’s port.
“This is a turning point right now in the war,” defence policy analyst Wolfgang Pusztai told Al Jazeera. “This might lead to a breakdown of the government forces in the southern part of Yemen.”
“The port of Mocha was the last harbour fully under control of the internationally recognised government,” Pusztai said.
Al Jazeera also had a cool map (keep in mind the Ansar Allah-controlled parts of Yemen contain a large majority of the population):
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) September 11, 2026
YNet reported that Ansar Allah also grabbed some key islands in the Strait:
Two military sources in the Yemeni government told Reuters that the Houthis have reached the Hanish Islands in the Red Sea, and AFP reported they seized Zuqar Island. Additionally, local sources confirmed to the Qatari Al-Araby channel that the Houthis took control of the strategic island of Mayun in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Another nifty map:
⭕️ Confirmed by pro-Saudi sources, Mayun (Perim) Island was captured by Yemen’s Ansarallah.
The situation as i understand it: https://t.co/z090wYHqPM pic.twitter.com/CwmkTGoPkt
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) September 10, 2026
Saudis: Pakistan and Turkiye Are Gonna Beat Ansar Allah Up
As their proxy forces in Yemen melt away from the critical Red Sea coastline, the Saudis are looking to tag in their newly bribed big bros Mecca Accords partners Pakistan and Turkiye, but it’s not looking like that card will play, per Reuters, via Yemen Monitor:
Reuters reported, citing a Pakistani source, that Saudi officials held a meeting in Riyadh with senior military representatives from Pakistan and Turkey to discuss coordinating a response to the recent escalation linked to Houthi attacks.
The source said the three countries agreed that their forces would not enter Yemeni territory, and that any potential military response would instead be launched from within Saudi territory.
Reuters quoted a second Pakistani source as saying that no decision has yet been made on Pakistan’s participation in any retaliatory strikes. The source stressed that the military agreement between Islamabad and Riyadh is defensive in nature and is limited to protecting Saudi territory.
The source explained that Pakistani forces could provide military and technical support, as well as ground or air support inside Saudi Arabia, but would not participate in combat operations outside the Kingdom.
The Reuters headline seems less optimism inspiring for the Saudi side:
Pakistan turns down Saudi request to strike Houthis.
Pakistan says the Mecca Pact of mutual defense “doesn’t cover a pre-existing condition,” so it only covers wars started after the pact was signed. It also covers only state actors, not non-state actors (and perhaps preferably… https://t.co/oUbLwEFguY
— Hussain Abdul-Hussain (@hahussain) September 10, 2026
Looks like nobody is keen to tag in and bail the Saudis out in their failed campaign against Yemen. It’s worth noting that the Wiki page on the Mecca Accords between the three countries says “(the Accords) enable Saudi Arabia to finance and fund defence projects; Turkey to provide deep tech defence equipment; and Pakistan to provide manpower at the frontline.”
With the Saudis under immense financial pressure and seeking to borrow $8 billion, I’m curious if the Turkish and Pakistani contributions won’t be just as ephemeral as the Saud family’s credit rating.
And with Saudi oil production at its lowest level since 1990…all I can say is I bet some Sheiks aren’t upset about oil futures prices breaking over $100 for the first time since July.
And things aren’t looking good for Saudi finances if the reports below prove true.
Might be a good idea to fill your vehicles up now.
Taking this pipeline out removes 5M barrels per day from global supply. Saudi Arabia produced just under 6.25M barrels per day in August. https://t.co/C3lFpMPJCh
— TheIntelFrog (@TheIntelFrog) September 10, 2026
Investing Live warns that “no official confirmation from Aramco or Saudi authorities has emerged, and the claim should be treated as unverified market chatter for now.”
Iran Debuts Electro-Optical Missiles
This next bit is a couple of days old, but Yves had plenty to cover and didn’t get to it.
Let’s hop over to another Strait where Iran is reported to have unveiled a new weapon, per The Telegraph (archived) a couple of days back:
Iran has fired electro-optical missiles at American warships for the first time.
Iranian officials have claimed they are using new missiles with advanced features to target the warships.
However, Centcom said on Wednesday that all attempted attacks had failed.
The missiles are likely to include electro-optical seekers, which use cameras and light sensors to see, track, and hit targets with high precision.
Tehran unveiled the Qassem Bassir, a new medium-range ballistic missile with this technology, last year. It is unclear whether this was the specific type launched at the US ships.
The solid-fuel missile has a roughly half-ton warhead, built for precision and for penetrating layered air defences rather than for sheer explosive weight.
Haig Hovaness has been warning that the collapse in the cost of precision guidance was possibly the most important development in modern warfare in his March piece “Cheap Guidance and Big Consequences” (also see his May piece “Endangered Warships“).
Iran probably used more conventional weapons to hit two more tankers Thursday.
Also we’ve gotten some confirmation from MSM sources that the Iranian attack on the US base in Jordan did some serious damage.
Per CBS:
One A-10 Thunderbolt, an attack aircraft known as the Warthog, was struck and lost a wing, the sources said.
Roughly eight F-15s sustained light damage and were put back into service, according to the people familiar with the damage, who spoke to CBS News under the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.
No U.S. deaths have been reported in the strikes on Jordan.
Aerotime has some serious details for nerds to geek out over.
Global Security’s Iran War day 195 update has some important correctives to US government spokespeople who underplay casualties and damage to US facilities.
And speaking of underplayed damage, this Military Times piece confirms the strongest claims about damage inflicted on the 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain:
The Navy’s highest-ranking officer told sailors during a town hall on Monday that it would be a while before the service would return to its main logistics hub in the Middle East after it was heavily damaged early in the Iran war.
Answering a displaced service member’s question about retrieving personal goods from the base they previously called home, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle said the Navy would not be using Naval Support Activity Bahrain for the foreseeable future.
“We’re not getting back in there anytime soon,” Caudle said. “I just want to be completely honest with that.”
On Feb. 28, Iran struck NSA Bahrain with missiles and one-way attack drones after the U.S. and Israeli militaries launched strikes on the Islamic Republic.
The Pentagon initially reported zero fatalities and said the strikes did not significantly impact military operations.
Lying, liars and all that.
That’s enough kino for this post, let’s talk some oil export numbers.
Regarding Those US Claims About Oil Leaving The Persian Gulf
Tanker Trackers doesn’t exactly agree with US Energy Secretary Wright about oil flows:
Countries covered in these numbers are:
Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, UAE and Qatar.
Although most may recover in the coming months, Iran’s exports of 1.68 Mbpd (baseline number) may likely remain at zero for the foreseeable future; depending on any agreement.
— TankerTrackers.com, Inc. (@TankerTrackers) September 6, 2026
Now that we’ve gotten the consensus reality part of the war update out of the way, let’s put the waders on and dive into what the Trump 2.0 Regime has been saying.
Vance and Rubio Not So Sure About Trump’s Midterms Claim
Yves posted yesterday about Trump’s claim that the war would end after the midterms.
According to the WSJ (archived), Vance and Rubio see this dragging on a bit longer:
In the Oval Office and Situation Room, Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and others have discussed with the president that Tehran could continue to resist U.S. pressure under the blockade and other military tactics, potentially extending the conflict past Inauguration Day in January 2029, the officials said.
The closed-door discussions come as Trump told reporters Wednesday that the war will end “immediately” after the midterm elections in November “because they can’t hold out any longer.”
Global Security had the White House spokesweasel’s response and some commentary:
A White House spokesperson responded that “President Trump has destroyed Iran’s military capabilities and is crippling what’s left of its abysmal economy with the most powerful naval blockade in world history and crushing sanctions.” The two statements are not a dispute about facts but about duration, and the gap between them — eight weeks against 28 months — is the widest between a stated American war aim and a privately assessed American war timeline that the open record has carried in this conflict.
Meanwhile Trump’s smack talk about Pickaxe Mountain which has had some of us worried that nukes might be involved, has gotten some more coverage. Turns out the Iranians might have been hearing similar things too.
Per CNN:
A suspected Iranian nuclear site buried under granite has seen a flurry of construction work this year as the war with the US has transpired, according to a group of analysts who reviewed six years of satellite imagery.
According to a new satellite imagery analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, shared exclusively with CNN ahead of its publication, there has been “a clear surge in construction activity” this year.
The underground facility is “likely” designed to be a safe haven for Iran’s nuclear program, according to the CSIS analysts.
Al Jazeera pulls a variation on Mallory’s “because it’s there” rationale for attempting to climb Everest in its piece “Why is Trump threatening to strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain again, now?”
Why does Pickaxe Mountain matter?
Because it is intact.
Pickaxe Mountain was left alone during the US’s June 2025 strikes on Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan at the end of the 12-day Israel war on Iran, and has escaped the current war almost entirely; the Institute for Science and International Security has recorded only the destruction of a vehicle on a nearby spoil pile.
With Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing base and enrichment halls at other sites damaged in the war, analysts see the tunnels as the most obvious place for Tehran to rebuild: For component production, assembly or enrichment of uranium.
The piece also has some interesting claims regarding how badly Iran’s nuclear facilities have been damaged:
The European Council on Foreign Relations estimates that the 2025 strikes likely destroyed many of the roughly 18,000 centrifuges then operating at Iran’s Natanz and Fordow facilities, along with several centrifuge production sites and Ardakan, Iran’s only yellowcake milling plant. Yellowcake is powdered uranium concentrate obtained from milled uranium ore.
Nearly 4,000 additional centrifuges were installed but idle at the time; however, they may have survived the strikes.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed further damage to the entrance buildings of Natanz’s underground enrichment plant in March 2026, although it detected no additional impact on the plant itself.
The Institute for Science and International Security reported in June that tunnel entrances at all three main sites remain sealed, that there is no evidence of any enrichment taking place, and that the centrifuge programme still appears to have been destroyed.
And a nifty map of Iranian nuclear sites:
Now let’s talk about domestic consequences of Trump’s war.
Diesel Costs What?!?
Oil heads have been warning that diesel was going to be a pain point of the Persian Gulf being shut down for a long time and now it’s hitting hard.
Quick round up of headlines and links:
Let’s close with a couple videos.
YouTube Roundup
Jon Elmer, Electronic Intifada contributing editor, reports on the tanker war developing in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian missile attacks on US warships in the Arabian Sea and strikes on US airbases in Jordan.
Nima Alkhorshid of Dialogue Work hosts Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar.
Historian Gerald Horne and investigative journalist Kit Klarenberg join the BettBeat crew for a panel on what may be the three most underreported fronts of US foreign policy right now: the expansion of AFRICOM and Western covert operations across Africa, Ukraine’s shadow war in the Sahel in coordination with jihadist forces, and the ongoing US–Israeli war on Iran.
That’s all I got for today. Hang tough, y’all!
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