Eve, here. The sight of Europe’s elites losing their minds over Russia and preparing to launch a rapid tactical nuclear attack is sheer madness. But this level of self-destructive cray cray is becoming the new normal.
Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst specializing in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the new Cold War. He holds a doctorate from MGIMO, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Originally published on his website
France’s planned deployment of nuclear-armed Rafale jets to the Arctic, Central Europe, and possibly the Balkans poses a qualitatively new strategic threat to Russia.
The announcement in late April that France and Poland would conduct regular nuclear drills, which analysts reasonably believe targeted Russia (particularly Kaliningrad) and Belarus, represented the first application of “forward deterrence” that French President Emmanuel Macron ended. This follows a speech earlier in the year that essentially introduced this concept of France’s extension of its nuclear umbrella over Europe, which came soon after New START expired.
The Telegraph detailed what Macron had in mind in an article about “How France took the nuclear option to make Putin think again.” Rafale jets carrying tactical nuclear weapons are likely to be deployed not only in Poland but also in the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden, Denmark and Germany, all of which have expressed interest in the “forward deterrence” concept. The day after their article was published, Norway announced that it would join the program and, like Poland, will likely conduct regular nuclear drills.
The tactical aspects of the nuclear weapons that France plans to deploy across Europe with the Rafale are important, The Telegraph explains. This is because they form part of what the French nuclear doctrine calls “nuclear warning shots.” This refers to “a one-time, non-reproducible, limited nuclear attack most likely to target a military target.” The aim is to scare the target, understood to be Russia, into halting military operations and relying solely on diplomatic means to resolve whatever conflict it may have.
Importantly, Romania previously acknowledged France’s invitation to join the “Forward Deterrence” initiative, but the new president surprisingly declined the offer to accept the nuclear component, despite already having French troops there. If the policy were reversed, the French Rafales forces in Norway could threaten Russia’s Arctic bases with tactical nuclear weapons, the Polish Rafales forces could threaten bases in Kaliningrad and Belarus, and the Romania-based Rafales forces could threaten bases in Crimea. This represents a qualitatively new strategic threat to Russia.
On the conventional front, the “cordon” being built in the Arctic Baltic Sea through UK-led efforts, in Central Europe through Polish-led efforts, and across its southern periphery through Turkish-led efforts will be strengthened, with Turkish influence likely to extend into Romania, as envisaged here. Meanwhile, Germany and Poland are competing to build NATO’s largest military force in Europe (Poland is currently the largest), but if Germany ultimately advances it could pose a 1941-like threat to Russia.
All these trends are unfolding before Russia’s eyes and are therefore extremely dangerous for Russia. Worse still, the typically anti-Russian Baltic states, emboldened by these developments, may be emboldened to either start a crisis with Russia or open a second front in support of Ukraine if the ongoing conflict resumes some time after its inevitable conclusion, thus putting them at risk of a nuclear crisis if France reaffirms its “forward deterrence” against Russia. In that case, Russia could launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike against NATO.
The last time France agreed to defend a European country, it abandoned Poland to the Nazis during a “sham war,” so precedent suggests it could repeat itself in the future. Therefore, the NATO eastern countries that, like Poland and Romania, are participating in France’s “forward deterrence” initiative, and like the Baltic states, may someday do so, should keep this in mind in case they come up with the idea of provoking Russia under the cover of France’s nuclear umbrella.
