If Trump was hoping his threats against Spain would trigger a shift in policy in Madrid towards the US-Israel war against Iran, he must be disappointed.
The Trump administration has issued a cacophony of threats against Spain since the Pedro Sánchez government refused to allow US forces to use Spanish military bases or airspace for its operations in the war against Iran. Pedro Sánchez has also been a rare, strident voice against Israel’s genocides in Gaza and southern Lebanon and other war crimes.
In response, Trump has repeatedly threatened to cut trade ties with Spain as well as remove US troops from Spanish bases, neither of which have (yet) come to pass. But arguably the biggest risk for Spain is that the US — and Israel — begin to foment trouble on Spain’s southern flanks, as we flagged in our March 24 post, “Spanish Government Intensifies Criticism of US-Israeli War on Iran As Trump Mulls Withdrawing US Troops from Spanish Bases“:
Some neo-cons in Washington have proposed that the US should move its troop presence in Spain to bases in Morocco, whose government is much closer to Israel. The US historian and former Pentagon adviser Michael Rubin has even suggested in a couple of articles for Middle East Forum that the US should recognise Spain’s two protectorates in Morocco, Ceuta and Melilla, as Moroccan, just as it has done with the disputed territory of Western Sahara.
We expanded on that danger in our April 10 post, US Considers Withdrawing Joint Military Base(s) in Spain As “Punishment” for Its Non-Cooperation in Iran War: WSJ
The US — and Israel — could also retaliate by stoking tensions on Spain’s southernmost border, by supporting the independence efforts of the two Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, which sit on the northern shores of Morocco’s Mediterranean coast. Morocco is closely allied with the US and Israel, both of which supported Morocco’s territorial claims over Western Sahara — in return for Rabat’s official recognition of Israel, in late 2020, as part of the Abraham Accords.
Michael Rubin, an influential neo-con analyst and former Pentagon advisor, recently urged Morocco to launch a civil march on Ceuta and Melilla similar to the one that took place in 1975, which triggered the ultimate withdrawal of Spanish forces from Western Sahara. Those forces were quickly supplanted by Moroccan occupying forces.
In an interview with El Español, the Republican congressman Mario Díaz-Balart, a gusano hawk closely tied to Marco Rubio, made some veiled threats in that direction.
“We have seen that [Sánchez] is a president who acts aggressively and I would not be surprised if the US administration is looking for alternative options that are different from those we have had with Spain for many decades.
…
[I]t seems that Mr. Sánchez values the relationship with the dictators of Iran, Cuba and Venezuela more than with the United States…
QUESTION: Does the United States consider Morocco as an alternative where to take the military bases if Spain continues with its ‘no to war’ position?
ANSWER.– It is interesting, because Ceuta and Melilla are in Moroccan territory. The attitude of the King of Morocco has been positive.
It is always interesting to see what the geopolitical and geographical reality of Morocco is, these are important issues for this country.
The relationship between the US and the Alawite country has remained consistent, it is very important, there is an alliance that has remained even in difficult times.
And those are questions that exist: the attitude of Ceuta and Melilla and whether they are part of Spain or should be part of Morocco are issues that are always open and are resolved through alliances and friendship.
But it is very sad that this individual [Sánchez] is jeopardizing that alliance between the United States and Spain, something that the Kingdom of Morocco has not done.
Now Díaz-Balart, who chairs the US House of Representative’s subcommittee on Homeland Security, has taken this debate to the floor of the US Congress. A one paragraph section of a report by the Appropriations Committee describes Ceuta and Melilla as “Spanish-administered” but “located on Moroccan territory”. It also encourages the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, to mediate on the future status of both autonomous cities.
The paragraph in question does not appear in the legislative text itself, but in the explanatory memorandum that accompanies House Bill 8595, which must still be approved in plenary before reaching the Senate and the Oval Office, reports El Pais‘ Washington correspondent Macarena Vidal Liy. It reads as follows:
“The Committee notes the historic alliance between the United States and Morocco, as formalized in 1786 by the Moroccan-American Treaty of Peace and Friendship. The Committee notes that the Spanish-administered cities of Ceuta and Melilla are located on Moroccan territory and are the subject of Morocco’s long-standing claim. The Committee supports efforts by the Secretary of State to encourage diplomatic engagement between Morocco and Spain on the future status of Ceuta and Melilla.”
This is the first time a body of the lower house of the US Congress has questioned the Spanishness of the two autonomous cities, notes El Confidencial‘s North African correspondent, Ignacio Cembrero, who was first to break the story.
A Little Background
For readers who are not familiar with the finer details of Spanish geography, below is a map of Spain’s territory (courtesy of El Orden Mundial). The position of the two enclaves/exclaves is depicted in the bottom right-hand circle.
¿Cuáles son las disputas fronterizas de España?⚔️
👉🇲🇦 Ceuta y Melilla.
👉🇲🇦 Islas Chafarinas.
👉🇲🇦 Peñón de Vélez de la Gomera.
👉🇲🇦 Peñón de Alhucemas.
👉🇲🇦 Isla de Perejil.
👉🇲🇦 Isla de Alborán.
👉🇬🇧 Gibraltar.
👉🇵🇹 Olivenza y Táliga.@Alvaro_Merino_ lo plasma en este mapa👇 pic.twitter.com/15ZH8Mr367
— El Orden Mundial (@elOrdenMundial) March 12, 2024
Both Ceuta and Melilla are semi-autonomous cities, with their own statutes that grant them administrative powers similar to those of Spain’s 17 “Autonomous Communities”, but without full legislative capacity.
More background from the business intelligence website Investment Monitor:
The coastal cities of Ceuta and Melilla are both located within Morocco yet have been Spanish territories since the 17th and 15th centuries, respectively, making them home to the only European land borders on the continent of Africa.
The government of Morocco has repeatedly contested Spain’s sovereignty over the territories, though they were initially designated as Spanish and not a vestige of colonialism to be relinquished when Morocco’s independence was recognised in 1956. It was in 1956 that both France and Spain gave up their Protectorates in Morocco which they had had since the signing of the Treaty of Fez in 1912.
Spain highlights that the territories of Ceuta and Melilla, which also include three uninhabited islets (the Alhucemas Islands, the rock of Vélez de la Gomera and the Perejil Island) had preceded the creation of the Protectorates. Instead they date from the time of the Reconquista, the centuries-long series of battles by Christian states (today’s Portugal and Spain) to expel the Muslims from the Iberian Peninsula.
In fact, Ceuta was conquered by the Portuguese first, in 1415, but then ceded to Spain in 1668 after the Iberian Union (formed by the Kingdoms of Aragon and Castille in today’s Spain and the Kingdom of Portugal) ended.
Melilla was occupied and conquered by Spain in 1497.
That is one of Spain’s main arguments for its ongoing sovereignty over the territories, pointing out that its rule over Ceuta and Melilla preceded its rule over some regions in mainland Spain. This includes parts of the north of the country, for example, but also cities in southern Spain such as Granada, the last Muslim enclave, which was conquered at roughly the same time (1492).
Conversely, Morocco argues that Spain’s territories within its kingdom are a remnant of colonialism and should be given back. However, the UN does not include these exclaves in its list of non-self-governing territories, defined as territories “whose people have not yet attained a full measure of self-government”. Both Ceuta and Melilla have a similar semi-autonomous status as that enjoyed by all other regions of mainland Spain…
Why Do Ceuta and Melilla Matter So Much?
Similarly to Gibraltar, Ceuta and Melilla’s historic importance stems from their strategic geographic location. Ceuta sits right on the Strait of Gibraltar, directly across the sea from the British territory.
In fact, both cities have served over the years as military and trade enclaves for Spain, linking Africa to Europe, and with sizeable military populations. Ceuta expands over 20 square kilometres and has a population of over 82,500, while Melilla’s size is 12 square kilometres and its population is about 83,190.
The two cities both lay at the bottom of Spain’s regions socioeconomically. They have the lowest levels of GDP per capita, as well as the highest levels of unemployment.
Exploiting Spain’s Weak Link
The House of Representatives’ Appropriations Committee is not alone in suddenly questioning the Spanishness of Ceuta and Melilla. Amine Ayoub, a Morocco-based fellow at the Washington-based, pro-Israel Middle East Forum, wrote in Israel’s Y Net Global that tensions between the US and Spain over Iran and NATO “create an opening for Morocco to press its claims on Ceuta and Melilla, with Israel positioned to back Rabat diplomatically within a US-led alliance”.
Similar articles have been published in the American Enterprise Institute as well as in several Israeli newspapers (Times of Israel, Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel Hayom and Jerusalem Post), notes Cembrero:
“´[T]hese articles, as well as the paragraph penned by the Appropriations Committee, are interpreted as a desire to punish Pedro Sánchez’s government for its criticism of Israel and the war waged by President Donald Trump against Iran…
In the eyes of Díaz-Balart and these polemicists, Ceuta and Melilla are a weak link for Spain, all the more so since they are claimed by a country like Morocco, with which the Republican Administration has forged both a bilateral partnership and a broader alliance within the framework of the Abraham Accords. Rabat joined that pact in December 2020.
In signing that pact, Morocco became one of four Arab nations (alongside the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan) to normalise diplomatic, economic, and security relations with Israel.
The Accords have already paid off handsomely for Rabat. Almost immediately afterwards, Trump recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. In doing so, he abandoned the decades-long calculated ambiguity the US had held over the disputed territory and began openly supporting Morocco’s claims. The Biden administration did nothing to change that.
Israel was next to recognise Moroccan “autonomy” over Western Sahara, in 2023. Two years later, the United Nations described Morocco’s autonomy plan as the “most feasible solution” to the 50-year-old conflict over the disputed territory. In April 2026, the EU lent its backing.
Spain, Western Sahara’s former colonial power, also ended up backing Morocco’s plan, much to the chagrin of some of Sánchez’s coalition partners. A recent report by the Royal Elcano Institute found that public opinion in Spain continues to strongly support Western Sahara’s right to self-determination.
The Sánchez government chose to prioritise other concerns such as safeguarding its strategic interests (e.g., by appeasing Morocco at a time when migrant pressures from the Maghreb are building as well as keeping the US and Israel happy) and maintaining stability along Spain’s southern border. The problem is that the US and Israel seem intent on upending that stability — and not just because of the recent rift with the Sánchez government.
Morocco has been a key piece for the US in the region since the days of the Cold War, due to its strategic location astride the Strait of Gibraltar and Atlantic Africa. It is also situated next to Algeria, Africa’s largest country which has long been a close ally of Russia’s. For decades both the US and Israel have worked to buttress Morocco territorially, militarily and diplomatically. That trend seems set to intensify.
So, should Spain be worrying even more about its southern flank?
According to Cembreno, perhaps not just yet. The Kingdom of Morocco apparently has bigger fish to fry, for now (machine translation)…
Although Moroccan diplomacy is emboldened by the close relationship established by the White House and the successes achieved in relation to Western Sahara, Ceuta and Melilla are not priorities for now… Amid the profusion of op-eds peppered with threats towards [Ceuta and Melilla], Morocco is silent on the issue.
“To imagine that Rabat can involve its ally, the US, in the Ceuta and Melilla affair is, for the moment, a baseless fantasy,” writes journalist Wissam El Bouzdaini in the Moroccan online newspaper Media 24, which in a rare move also published his article in English. El Bouzdaini, the son of a senior official in Morocco’s Ministry of Communication, expresses the opinion, never openly formulated, of his country’s authorities.
The Spanish-Moroccan relationship is going through “a historic moment”, thanks, firstly, to President Pedro Sánchez’s support for the autonomy plan proposed by Morocco to resolve the Sahara conflict…
Secondly, Morocco is set to host the 2030 World Cup alongside Spain and Portugal, an event of the first magnitude. Morocco is so determined to host the event that it submitted its candidacy six times between 1994 and 2026. Now that it has finally got its prize, with Sánchez’s help, nothing should derail preparations for the event, which Morocco hopes will culminate in a final held in the stadium under construction in Benslimane, near Casablanca.
That, however, is over four years from now and a lot can happen in the interim. It’s far from clear what will happen with this year’s World Cup let alone the 2030 edition, what with the re-escalating wars in the Gulf and Ukraine, the US planning to use ICE as a key part of its security apparatus for the tournament, and Trump constantly threatening to attack fellow host nation, Mexico, and Cuba. Let’s not even get on to the looming economic crisis.
Meanwhile, if Trump was hoping that his threats against Spain would trigger a shift in policy in Madrid, he must be disappointed. In recent weeks, the Spanish government has confirmed it will not be participating in or broadcasting the Eurovision Song contest due to Israel’s participation. Spain is one of only five countries (out of 35) to boycott the event, which incidentally is sponsored by Israeli beauty brand, Moroccanoil.
This week, Sánchez raised the stakes further by asking the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to protect the UN special rapporteur for the Palestinian territories, Francesca Albanese, and other “prominent figures defending international law” from US sanctions. To this end, his government has called for the implementation of the so-called “Blocking Statute”, which allows for the repeal of third-country rules that affect the interests of the EU 27.
Fat chance of that. Von der Leyen, Europe’s “American president,” as Politico EUROPE once dubbed her, never does anything that could displease Washington or Tel Aviv. Also, the VdL Commission is as enthusiastic about sanctioning prominent public figures that go off script as the Trump administration is, even while claiming to be protecting Europe’s free speech.
It’s hard to believe now, but not too many years ago, the EU quite successfully sold itself as an advocate for the rights of its people, and an EU condemnation held political weight on the other side of the planet.
Today the world knows that when the EU says “free speech,” they… https://t.co/bWEwEiR2Xg
— Lina Seiche (@LinaSeiche) May 3, 2026
As for Sánchez, he appears to revel in his newfound role as the US’ biggest antagonist in Europe. Yesterday, he presented Albanese with the Order of Civil Merit for her advocacy throughout Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.
Spain’s PM Pedro Sanchez has awarded the Order of Civil Merit to Francesca Albanese, the UN’s special rapporteur on Palestine, for her advocacy throughout Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.
🔴 LIVE updates: https://t.co/jFRC2Pbzip pic.twitter.com/7lBwqiIVEQ
— Al Jazeera English (@AJEnglish) May 7, 2026
As mentioned in previous posts, this is primarily a matter of political survival for Sánchez. As the corruption scandals involving senior figures in his party, including family members, have multiplied, he has decided, quite astutely, that his best form of defence is to pursue policies that are broadly popular with voters. And there are few policies more popular in Spain — and presumably most other countries in Europe — than opposing genocide and war.
If only other senior members of Europe’s corrupt political class would take note.
