A merchant ship spotted off the coast of Dubai on April 20, 2026.
– | AFP | Getty Images
Bettors on prediction market platform Karshi do not believe the Strait of Hormuz will be open to normal traffic flow for several months.
The probability that traffic will return to normal by June 1 fell below 50% on Wednesday after the United States and Iran extended their ceasefire, but neither side announced a new deal to open Iran’s Strait of Hormuz or end the U.S. naval blockade.
On Thursday, President Donald Trump threatened to “shoot” ships laying mines in the Strait, but oil prices rose, with Brent crude once again above $100 a barrel.
Karshi bettors say there is only a 42% chance that normal traffic will pass through the Strait by June 1. They assign a 59% probability of normal traffic flow by July 1st and a 61% probability by August 1st. Kalsi defines contractual normal traffic flow as a seven-day rolling average of transit calls through the Strait, based on data from IMF Portwatch.
At Polymarket, bettors see a 45% chance that traffic in the Channel will return to normal by the end of May and a 67% chance of a return to normal by the end of June. Polymarket uses the same regular traffic definition as Kalshi.
Strait crossings remain low. According to LSEG data, eight vessels, including three oil tankers, crossed the strait on Wednesday, the same day Iran announced it had seized two vessels sailing through the strait without permission. Before the war, more than 100 ships typically passed through the strait each day.
Ulrike Hoffman Burchardi, chief investment officer for the Americas at UBS, said in a note Thursday that reopening the strait “remains uncertain.”
He pointed to comments Wednesday by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Berger Ghalibaf, who said the strait would not reopen as long as the U.S. naval blockade remained in place.
“These developments demonstrate the challenges of resolving the conflict and reopening the strait to allow energy flows and production to normalize,” she wrote. “Prolonged high energy prices could weigh on growth,” Hoffman Burchardi added.
Kalsi bettors say the platform traditionally defines the probability of the U.S. going into recession in 2026 as just under 26%, a significant drop from the near 37% at the end of March early in the war.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes a minority investment in CNBC.
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