The American Immigration Council does not endorse or oppose candidates for elected office. We aim to provide an analysis of the election’s impact on the U.S. immigration system.
In less than two months, President-elect Donald Trump will begin his second term in office. A flurry of immigration-related executive actions are expected in the coming days, including dramatic changes to immigration enforcement in the interior of the United States. On the campaign trail, Trump promised that on “Day 1,” he would “launch the largest criminal deportation program in American history.” But we know that his plan extends far beyond those who have been involved in the criminal legal system, including nearly 80% of undocumented immigrants who have been in this country for more than 15 years. I know.
Specific details have not been made public, but the incoming administration plans to expand the federal government’s ability to arrest and deport more people, including collaboration with state and local law enforcement and expedited removals. It is understood that there will be a move towards expanding existing powers. Below, we examine who is most likely to be targeted and the potential obstacles to the Trump administration’s tightening of domestic immigration enforcement next year.
Who is most likely to be arrested?
Tom Homan, Trump’s next “border czar” and senior adviser on mass deportations, said anyone in the country is at risk of being illegally arrested, which poses a “public safety and national security threat.” He made it clear that those who were not involved would be first on the list. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is giving state and local law enforcement authorities a greater ability to identify and target people suspected of being in the country illegally because it is less costly than going into communities and making “massive” arrests. dependent.
Since 2015, 82% of ICE arrests have occurred inside local, state, or federal prisons. The incoming administration is exploring ways to expand the powers of local police to make it easier to arrest people suspected of being in the country illegally during routine traffic stops. This means that if an illegal alien comes into contact with local police officers or other local law enforcement, that person and those around them may be arrested, detained, and deported. .
Other people likely to be targeted by the incoming administration are the approximately 1.3 million people who have received final deportation orders, many of whom are currently being monitored by ICE. Because they already have a deportation order in place, these people are not automatically given the opportunity to appear before an immigration judge. During President Trump’s first term, many people in these situations were cited by ICE, arrested with little notice, and rapidly deported. Although ICE agents are not subject to surveillance, it also targets people who live or work near people currently under surveillance, potentially putting their loved ones at risk of arrest as well. . These “collateral arrests” can occur where people work or at home.
The Trump administration is likely to target some of the 863,000 people under Temporary Protected Status (TPS) who are from countries the federal government has deemed too dangerous to return to. There are currently 16 countries under the TPS, 13 of which will expire in 2025. During his first term, President Trump sought to end TPS for more than 400,000 people in countries including El Salvador, Honduras, Haiti, Nicaragua and Sudan. Without TPS, these people could face the risk of deportation under a mass deportation campaign.
What constraints will be placed on President Trump’s mass deportation campaign?
It is clear that the government currently does not have the resources needed for a large-scale deportation campaign. A study by the American Immigration Council on the costs of mass deportation found that the government would need to spend at least $88 billion a year to dramatically expand its detention and deportation infrastructure to deport 1 million people a year. It turned out that. Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham recently offered President Trump land to expand the immigration detention center, but that 1,400 acres is likely just a drop in the bucket needed for expansion. For ICE to engage in operations of that scale, it would need to increase its current capabilities by a factor of 24.
Republican leaders plan to advance a spending bill in early 2025 that could include billions of dollars for border wall construction, ICE, and more detention beds. This new funding is more likely to be approved because Republicans control both houses of Congress. Given that 90% of immigration detention centers are owned or operated by private prison companies, the expected increase in detention numbers has already sent those companies’ stock prices soaring.
Even with this money, the Trump administration will face other hurdles in its planned campaign. There are currently 3.7 million cases pending before just 735 immigration judges, and these cases can take years to resolve.
During his first term, President Trump attempted to expand the expedited deportation process, known as immediate removal, which currently applies to people arrested within 160 miles of the border and within 14 days of entering the country. The expansion will include people from all parts of the United States who entered the country in the past two years. But this process will face obstacles because the overwhelming majority of illegal aliens have been in the United States for more than 10 years.
Several countries, including Russia, Venezuela and China, either refuse to accept deportees altogether or limit the number of people they can accept. President Trump is reportedly drawing up a list of countries to which he would deport citizens if their country of citizenship does not accept them, but some are already rejecting the idea. This means that while the number of arrests will increase, the number of deportations will not necessarily increase as well.
What impact will it have on American society?
The council’s research estimates that expulsion can cause irreparable harm to families, reducing household income by an average of 62.7% ($51,200 per year). Overall, U.S. GDP could shrink by a larger percentage than during the Great Recession of 2007-2009, when 15 million people lost their jobs.
But beyond the budget and economic costs, the increase in arrests and deportations next year (and in the years to come) will have a devastating and lasting impact for generations. There are approximately 8.5 million American citizens in this country, who belong to 4 million families, including 5.1 million American children. FWD, a bipartisan political group, estimates that an additional 28 million people are members of undocumented mixed-status families, the latter of which include not only U.S. citizens but also green card holders and temporary residents. It is estimated that this includes people who are US
Parental deportation has long-term traumatic mental and physical health effects on children. It can affect a child’s brain development and cause depression, anxiety, isolation, and other behavioral problems. It also has a negative impact on children’s access to medical care, increases the likelihood that they will be placed in foster care, and may lead to educational problems such as failing school or dropping out due to the financial stress of losing a parent. performance is likely to decline. Given that ICE relies heavily on the use of local law enforcement to identify and apprehend people suspected of being in the country illegally, members of the immigrant community, including those who are victims of crime, , are less likely to trust local law enforcement.
Where do we go from here?
In an interview with 60 Minutes, Mr Homan refused to say he had any intention of arresting “Grandma” and said family separation policies should “absolutely” be considered. But despite the election results, Trump received no orders for the atrocities.
Public opinion polls suggest increasing support for deporting illegal aliens, but the level of support varies widely depending on how the question is framed. Perhaps voters would oppose mass deportations if they understood the context of their impact on long-term residents, family separation, and the economy. Another poll found that 61% of potential voters thought offering a path to citizenship was a better option than participating in a mass deportation campaign, with 39% supporting it. These reports give us a glimmer of hope that a rational and fair immigration policy in the United States is possible in the future.
Contact Person: Donald Trump, Immigration and Customs Enforcement
