A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is on display outside the Space Exploration Technologies Corp. facility on March 26, 2026 in Hawthorne, California.
Patrick T. Fallon | AFP | Getty Images
There are a number of tech blockbuster IPOs on the horizon that will displace Warren Buffett on the first day of trading.
SpaceX officially filed to list on the Nasdaq on Wednesday. On the same day, it was reported that OpenAI would secretly file for an IPO on Friday as well.
Following the OpenAI report, traders at prediction market platform Kalshi now see a 92% chance that ChatGPT owners will file for an IPO this year. Traders also believe there is a 69% chance that its biggest private rival, Anthropic, will formally go public this year.
And Polymarket traders say they are all expected to trade at a valuation of more than $1 trillion on the first day, a record for a public debut.
SpaceX was valued at $1.25 trillion in February, and PolyMarket traders believe there is a 56% chance the company will close its first trading day at more than $2.2 trillion. OpenAI was last valued at $852 billion, and traders believe there is a 65% chance that OpenAI will close its first public trading day at more than $1.4 trillion.
Meanwhile, traders put a 47% chance that Anthropic will close at more than $1.8 trillion on its first day of public trading. The company is reportedly in talks for a new funding round at a valuation of $900 billion.
These valuations would put both companies firmly in the $1 trillion range, likely surpassing Berkshire Hathaway’s market capitalization (currently $1.03 trillion). They will even challenge Meta and Tesla’s roughly $1.5 trillion market cap.
Deutsche Bank analyst Adrian Cox noted in a note Thursday that Berkshire Hathaway’s sales last year exceeded $350 billion. By comparison, SpaceX’s 2025 revenue is $18.67 billion. OpenAI reportedly generated $13.1 billion in revenue last year.
Anthropic’s 2025 earnings are less clear, but Wednesday’s report said the company is on track to reach nearly $11 billion in revenue in the second quarter and become Claude’s owner’s first profit. SpaceX and OpenAI are unprofitable companies despite huge valuations.
The large valuations come as companies remain private for longer periods of time, in part due to more ways to raise capital outside of the public markets. But the flurry of IPOs has raised concerns that there may not be enough buyers to sustain such high valuations.
Cox poured cold water on those concerns.
“While there may be concerns about the market’s ability to absorb a large number of IPOs worth hundreds of billions of dollars this year, they will collectively enter the U.S. stock market worth about $70 trillion,” he said. “This is five times the size in nominal terms even at the peak of the dot-com bubble in the late 1990s. Back then, there were an average of nearly 500 IPOs a year, compared to about 120 this decade.”
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalsi have a commercial relationship that includes a minority investment in CNBC.
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