Connor here: discovers that the next climate change is exacerbating the troublesome Kashmir issue.
According to Fazlul Haq, a research scientist at Ohio State University, it focuses on human-environment interactions in mountainous regions, particularly in the Hindu Kshkarakolam Himalayan region. His current work sponsors glacial changes in transparency and social environment dynamics, with a specific interest in the water conflict in the Indus Basin between India and Pakistan. It was originally published in conversation.
In 1995, World Bank Vice President Ismail Serageldin warned that the conflict over the past 100 years had surpassed oil.
Thirty years later, the forecast is being tested in Kashmir, one of the most volatile regions in the world.
On April 24, 2025, the Indian government announced it was diplomatic ties with its neighbor Pakistan over attacks by Kashmir militants that killed 26 tourists. As part of cooling its connection, India said it had immediately halted the Indus Waters Treaty, a decades-old agreement that would allow both countries to share the use of water from rivers flowing from India to Pakistan. Pakistan You have promised mutual movements and warned that the disruption in the water supply would be considered an “act of war”.
The current flare-up was quickly escaped, but it has a long history. Ohio State University’s Indus Basin Water Project is hated by the Multi-Yar Project, which investigates the Transbroney water conflict between Pakistan and India.
I am currently in action fieldwork in Pakistan in Kashmir and the Indus Basin. Regional geopolitical tensions dragged by recent attacks in Pahargam, India-controlled Kashmir, pose a major threat to the water treaty. So are other factors that can help to separate tension. Climate change.
Fair solutions to water disputes
The Indus River, which you have held back lives for thousands of years from the Harappa civilization, flourished around 2600-1900 BC in what is now Pakistan and northwest India.
After India’s division in 1947, domination of the Indus River system became the main source of tension between the two countries that emerged from the division: India and Pakistan. The conflict occurred almost immediately, especially in 1948, when India temporarily halted the flow of water to Pakistan, prompting fears about the collapse of agriculture. These early conflicts led to the signing of the Indus Waters Treaty in 1960, leading to years of denial.
Fazlul Haq/Bryan Mark/Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center/Ohio State University, CC by
The Indus Waters Treaty, mediated by the World Bank, has long been Hyrad as one of the most successful tap water agreements.
The Indus Basin was divided between the two countries, giving India to the east rivers (Rabbi, Beads and Satrej), and ruled the western rivers of Pakistan, Indus, Jeram and Chenab.
At the time, this was a fair solution. However, the treaties were designed for a variety of different worlds. At the time, India and Pakistan were newly independent countries working to establish Teselbus in a world separated by the Cold War.
When it was signed, Pakistan had a population of 46 million and India had a population of 436 million. Today, these figures are above 240 million and above 1.4 billion.
Today, more than 300 million people rely on the Indus River Basin for survival.
This increases pressure on the water source between the two nuclear rivals. The effects of global warming and the continued fight over Kashmir’s conflict zones only add to those tensions.
The effects of melted glaciers
Much of today’s problems lie in things that were incompatible with the treaty, not the treaty.
At the time of the signing, there was a lack of comprehensive research into glacial mass balance. The assumption was that the Himalayan glacier fed into the Indus River system was relatively stable.
This lack of detailed measurement meant that climate change and future changes due to glacial melts were not factored into the design of the treaty, nor were they factors such as groundwater depletion, water pollution from pesisid, fertilizer use, industrial waste. Similarly, the possibility of large-scale hydrostatic development in the region via dams, reserves, canals and hydroelectric power was largely ignored by the treaty.
Reflecting modern assumptions about glacial stability, negotiators assumed that hydrological patterns were persistent in historical vein.
Interada, the glacier feeding the Indus Basin, began to meet. In fact, they are now melting at record rates.
Global weather organizations reported that 2023 was the driest year of over 30 years, with normal river flows destroying agriculture and ecosystems. Global Glacier also saw its largest mass in 50 years, releasing more than 600 water into rivers and oceans.
The Himalayan glacier, which supplies 60-70% of the summer flows of the Indus River, is shrinking rapidly. A 2019 survey estimated that it is 8 billion tonnes of ice per year.
Also, a study by the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development found that Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan glacier melted 65% faster in the past decade between 2011 and 2020.
The velocity of glacial melt poses a major challenge to the long-term effectiveness of the treaty to surround water essential to all who rely on the Indus River Basin. It may temporarily increase river flow, but it threatens the long-term availability of water.
Certainly, if this trend continues, we will be aware of water shortages, especially for Pakistan. This is highly dependent on the dry, arid season of Indus.
Another failure of the Indus Waters Treaty is that it only addresses the distribution of surface waters and does not include provisions to manage groundwater extraction.
In the Punjab region, the offer known as the Bleed Basket of Bush – a heavy dependence on groundwater – leads to excessive excerpts and depletion.
Groundwater currently contributes to approximately 48% water withdrawals, mostly during the Indus Basin, particularly during the arid season. However, as reported by the World Bank, there is no bounded framework for overseeing the sharing management of this resource.
Disputed Areas
Climate change and groundwater were not the only ones ignored by the drafters of the Indus Waters Treaty. Negotiators in India and Pakistani also ignored the issues and status of Kashmir.
Kashmir You have been at the heart of India and Pakistan’s tensions since the division of 1947. At the time of independence, the princely nations of Jammu and Kashmir were given the option to access Eisha India or Pakistan. Although there was a Muslim majority in the region, the Hindu rulers chose to indict India, causing the first Indian-Pakistan war.
This led to the creation of a ceasefire via A and the line of control in 1949, effectively splitting the territory between India-controlled Kashmir and Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. Since then, Kashmir has resumed its territory of conflict, claiming full money from both countries, serving as flashpoints for two additional wars in 1965 and 1999, serving as numerous skirmishes.
Kasimiris, the main source of the basin, played no role in negotiations or decision-making M-Manss.
The agricultural area and the potential for hydroelectric power generation are limited by restrictions on water resource use, with only 19.8% of the potential for hydroelectric power generation being used. This means that the Kasimiris in the rooms on both sides, living in water-rich areas, have not been able to fully benefit from the resources flowing through the land, as water infrastructure, which has mainly served downstream users and wider national interests, has served local developments rather than local developments.
Sub-scholars argue that the treaty has promoted hydraulic development in Jammu and Kashmir, but is not in a way that would serve local interests.
India’s hydroelectric projects in Kashmir – such as the Bagrihar and Kishan Ganganda dams were major issues. Pakistan has repeatedly raised concerts that could also change the flow of water.
However, the Indus Waters Convention does not provide an explicit mechanism for resolving local conflicts and disproves Kashmir’s hydrological and political concerns.
Tensions over Kashmir’s hydroelectric project had set India and Pakistan at a diplomatic impasse long before the recent attacks.
The Kishanganga and Ratldam dispute, currently under arbitration in the Hague, exposed the ingriculture of the treaty to manage boundary water disputes.
In the 2024 Septent, India was formally negotiated for a review of the Indus Waters Convention, citing demographic changes, energy needs and security concerns for Kashmir.
The treaty currently exists in the state of Limbo. Although technically valid, the formal notice of the Indian review introduces uncertainty, halts key collaboration mechanisms and raises doubts on the long-term durability of the treaty.
A fair and proofable treaty?
From now on, we argue that reform or reintroduction of the Indus Water Treaty should be recognized for the hydrological supply of Kashmir if it has been enduringly successful.
Excluding Kashmir from future debates, neither India nor Pokistan suggest that Kashmir stakeholders are being abused simply for strengthening long-standing patterns of alienation.
As a discussion
Nicholas Brayfogle, Madumita Dutta, Alexander Thompson and Brian G. Mark contributed to this article on the Indus Basin Water Project at Ohio State University.
