Eve, here. By the standards of world leaders, Putin is upbeat, makes every effort to explain his position, and rarely makes statements that deny reality. So it’s generally best to start by taking him at his word and questioning lies of omission as opposed to positive misrepresentations.
And as we have seen with President Putin’s very cautious approach to the special military operation, which now worries not only members of the Security Council but even ordinary Russians who want to impose large-scale sanctions on Ukraine, he is wary of conflict. At first, Putin’s attitude reminded me of the scene in the movie “Elizabeth,” where the queen’s advisers try to persuade her to attack Spain.
Actress Cate Blanchett said, “I don’t like war. The outcome is uncertain.”
To be clear, this is not to say that deranged European countries cannot take steps like the Kaliningrad attack to force Putin to take action. But in his latest report from Moscow, Alexander Mercouris said that not only does the city seem peaceful and prosperous, but he is literally the only one of the many people he has interacted with to bring up the drone attacks.
Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst specializing in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the new Cold War. He holds a doctorate from MGIMO, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Originally published on his website
In his words, talk of Russia attacking NATO is “not just nonsense, it’s a provocation.”
Last month, several top influencers of the Non-Pro-Russian Party (NRPR) sounded the alarm about Russia’s alleged plans to attack NATO, inspired by ominous statements made by hawkish Sergei Karaganov and Dmitry Polyansky, then Russia’s ambassador to the OSCE. Readers can see examples of warnings here, here, here, here, and here. The casual NRPR thus braced itself for a scenario that, if it materialized, would almost certainly start World War III.
But judging by Putin’s reaction when asked about these alleged plans during a recent meeting with foreign journalists, that clearly hasn’t happened and probably never will. In his words: “Why would Russia attack Europe or go to war with NATO? What is its purpose? As I have said before, these claims are not just nonsense. In my view, they are deliberate provocations aimed at creating the impression of a threat that does not actually exist.”
Putin then said: “The aim is to convince the people to increase defense spending and, as a first step, to pay the money to the regime that took power in Kiev. I think that is the real explanation. This is not just nonsense, it is a provocation. “And what amazes me is that some people in European countries seem to believe that. I find it surprising that this whole concept is simply ridiculous. It would be funny if it weren’t so sad.”
It is not just “some people in European countries” who “seem to believe” it, but his own top hawks have defended the policy, which has recently been amplified to the fullest by NRPR’s top influencers, many of whom can be described as “state-adjacent” because they are supported by publicly funded media, attend government-sponsored conferences, or participate in state-backed tours of Donbas. Casual NRPR fans are therefore left to wonder whether Putin is telling the truth or is “exciting the West.”
In such cases, whenever confusion arises, it is always best to follow what President Putin himself says. This is due to top NRPR influencers’ so-called “Potemkinism,” or creating “alternative realities” regarding Russia’s national interests and policies for “strategic purposes” (whatever that may be). The most notorious example is that Putin is an anti-Zionist who is secretly allied with Iran against Israel, even though he is proud to be a lifelong philosophical Jew, as evidenced by his many quotes from the Kremlin’s official website.
So while it would be inaccurate to describe the fiercely loyal Mr. Karaganov as a “provocateur” in the spirit of Putin’s condemnation of those advocating a Russian attack on NATO, he nonetheless strongly rejected hawks like him and the top NRPR influencers who hyped his rhetoric. That said, Russia’s foreign spy agency did indeed warn last month that Russia could launch retaliatory strikes against Latvia if Ukraine launches drones from Latvia, and this should be taken seriously.
It is important for ordinary NRPRs to understand that this is very different from what Mr. Karaganov has been advocating, which is a pre-emptive strike against NATO that could easily lead to World War III. As Putin himself said, such talk is “not just nonsense, it’s a provocation.” When people on the Russian side do that, they inadvertently “persuade” whatever their intentions are. [Westerners] The first step is to increase defense spending and make payments to the regime that took power in Kiev. ”
