Windermere Chief Economist Jeff Tucker looks at the factors affecting the overall economy and local markets.
Here are the numbers you need to know this month.
$115: price of one barrel of oil
First number we found this month: $115. This is the level the price of a barrel of oil reached on April 7th, which happens to be exactly double the price of oil at the beginning of 2026.
The war in Iran has entered its second month and continues to cause an energy crisis that spills over into the global economy. The longer this goes on, the more inflationary pain this year will cause, because such an energy shock will raise the cost of producing and transporting almost everything.
178,000 jobs added
The second number we know this month is 178,000. That’s the number of jobs the economy added in March, which, if it survives normal revisions, would be the highest single month of job growth since late 2024.
However, looking at trends over the past 15 months, we have now oscillated between employment gains and employment declines for 11 consecutive months, indicating both slower employment growth and increased month-to-month volatility. One consequence of this strong jobs report is that it provides further assurance that the Federal Reserve will hold off on cutting interest rates for the time being. If the labor market wasn’t in such dire straits, the Fed wouldn’t have to rush to the rescue.
6.5%: Mortgage interest rate
Third number we know this month: 6.5 percent. That’s the measure of where 30-year mortgage rates are now bouncing back after rising nearly half a point from a multi-year low in late February.
The combination of high inflation caused by the Iran war and tight monetary policy has pushed interest rates back to last summer’s levels, and frankly into the range of last spring’s levels. This has hurt homebuyer demand during what should be a busy spring season, and has instead resulted in a more balanced housing market.
964,000 active listings
Finally, looking at the housing market, there were 964,000 active listings at the end of March, which is slightly more than at this point in 2020 and about 8 percent more than last year.
This 8% year-over-year increase is essentially in line with the numbers I reported in February, ending the slowing trend in inventory growth since May of last year. It’s a little early to call this a turning point, but it may be a sign that inventory profits are recovering.
If this situation continues, buyers could see a huge number of options on the market this summer. In the meantime, sellers need to be aware that buyers are comparison shopping, so even though it’s a busy spring selling season, it’s still beneficial to list with a trusted agent and hope for the best.
Jeff Tucker is principal economist at Windermere Real Estate in Seattle, Washington. Connect with him on X or Facebook.
