On November 14, 2025, renovation work continues at the Federal Reserve Building in Washington, DC, USA.
Elizabeth Franz | Reuters
Prediction market traders believe consensus will return to the Federal Reserve’s policy-making committee when new Chairman Kevin Warsh presides over the June interest rate decision later Wednesday. At its last meeting under former Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in April, four members voted against the policy, the most in more than 30 years.
Traders at prediction market platform Kalsi put a 70% chance that the 12-member Federal Open Market Committee’s June vote will receive zero dissent. There is only a 3% chance that four members will vote against it, as they did in April.
The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at 3.75% from the current 3.50% on Wednesday as policymakers continue to assess the extent to which inflation will rise due to soaring oil prices stemming from the U.S.-Iran war.
The Fed also kept interest rates unchanged at its April meeting, with only one dissenter voting against the decision. The vote was taken by now former Federal Reserve Board member Stephen Millan, who has consistently advocated lower interest rates.
Three other opponents, Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neal Kashkari of Minneapolis, and Federal Reserve President Laurie Logan of Dallas, opposed language that suggested the central bank could cut rates in the future. This showed that some members were concerned that the committee’s outlook was too dovish and opposed hinting at a rate cut.
More than half (55%) of respondents to a Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey conducted in June said the Fed would implement a “hawkish hold” on Wednesday.
Traders believe that when Warsh holds his first news conference as chairman, there is a 73% chance that he will mention “uncertainty,” a 43% chance that he will mention “quantitative tightening,” and just a 20% chance that he will mention President Donald Trump by name.
Correction: This story has been revised to accurately reflect the title of Beth Hammack, Neal Kashkari and Laurie Logan. A previous version of this article incorrectly listed them as Fed governors.
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