Today’s Iran War update includes Netanyahu ordering strikes on Lebanon, Trump rug pulling “negotiations” in Pakistan, the MSM publishing more bad war news for the US, and some takes from the UAE and Israel.
First, some high weirdness in DC last night where shots were fired at the White House Press Correspondent’s Dinner which was immediately cancelled after Trump was evacuated.
It doesn’t have much bearing on our topic, so I’ll let UFC frontman, and Trump pal Dana White speak to it:
UFC CEO Dana White was in attendance during the alleged shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner and gave his reaction.
“It was f*cking awesome. I literally took every minute of it in. It was a pretty crazy, unique experience.”
(via @USATODAY) pic.twitter.com/FHRQVcmHgx
— MMA Junkie (@MMAJunkie) April 26, 2026
With a side of conspiracy theory fodder:
🚨 JUST NOW: Karoline Leavitt calls on everyone to watch tonight because Donald Trump will bring the heat and there will be “shots fired”
LET’S FREAKING GO 🔥 pic.twitter.com/GMkccJ7qvw
— MAGA Voice (@MAGAVoice) April 25, 2026
And now, on to business.
Oh Bibi
No surprise that Israel remains ceasefire incapable, via Haaretz:
IDF says it struck Hezbollah-linked structures in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military said Saturday it struck several buildings linked to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
According to the IDF, the strikes were carried out by the Israeli air force under orders from the political echelon.
Meanwhile, the IDF is “investigating” more war crimes committed against a Christian village in Lebanon,
The Lebanese account:
الجيش الاسرائيلي واصل عمليات الهدم والتخريب في بلدة دبل الحدودية حيث اقدم على جرف الواح الطاقات الشمسية التي تغذي البلدة بالكهرباء ومحطة المياه اضافة إلى بعض المنازل والطرقات وأشجار الزيتون pic.twitter.com/Etu9asXQGz
— LBCI Lebanon News (@LBCI_NEWS) April 25, 2026
Translated by Grok:
The Israeli army continued its demolition and sabotage operations in the border town of Dabl, where it proceeded to bulldoze the solar panels that supply the town with electricity and the water station, in addition to some homes and roads and olive trees.
The IDF responds, per Times of Israel:
The IDF says it is investigating after footage published by Lebanese media showed military excavators damaging solar panels in the Christian village of Debel in southern Lebanon.
“The actions seen in the video do not align with the values of the IDF and the conduct expected of its soldiers,” the military says in response to a query by The Times of Israel.
The IDF says the incident is under investigation, and according to the findings, actions will be taken against the troops involved.
It’s fascinating in a grim way which crimes the IDF “investigates” and which ones it completely ignores, like say, the mass murder of Lebanese journalists.
“I told her, ‘I’m next to you.’
She told me, ‘Don’t fall asleep and leave me.’ I said, ‘No, no.’ Then exhaustion took over. I closed my eyes for a moment. Then I heard Amal scream. They struck the room again. Amal was gone.”
Reporter Zeinab Faraj recounts the harrowing hours her… pic.twitter.com/O9X0d7sxJp
— Nada Maucourant Atallah (@MaucourantNada) April 25, 2026
Even the Guardian is on to their family blogging:
Israel denied that it targeted journalists or that it had prevented rescue teams from reaching the area, and said the incident was under review. Previous “reviews” have rarely if ever attached any blame to Israeli forces, who typically attempt to suggest killed journalists are members of armed groups.
The israeli who sent the death threat to Amal Khalil before her assassination calls himself a journalist. Much like Eitan Fischberger, who hides behind his media credentials to put together hit lists of Palestinian journalists in Gaza who then subsequently get assassinated.… https://t.co/i8qok3iCEw pic.twitter.com/YOX5a74J0R
— barry with the NED (@bonzerbarry) April 23, 2026
Drop Site News has another poignant report from Lebanon:
Displaced Lebanese Pool Money to Buy Satellite Images to See What Remains of their Homes.
For many residents unable to return to southern Lebanon amid Israel’s invasion and demolition campaign, satellite imagery has become the only way they can find out the state of their homes.
Alright, enough of that heartbreak, let’s look at some less grisly nonsense.
Trump Cancels Kushner, Witkoff Trip to Islamabad
This wasn’t a surprise to anyone paying attention, but Trump’s Truth Social postings remain eminently quotable:
I just cancelled the trip of my representatives going to Islamabad, Pakistan, to meet with the Iranians. Too much time wasted on traveling, too much work! Besides which, there is tremendous infighting and confusion within their “leadership.” Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards, they have none! If they want to talk, all they have to do is call!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Informal Iranian spokesman Mohammad Marandi told Lebanese network Al Mayadeen that, “Trump fabricated the news, and the Iranians from the outset have no intention of meeting with Whitakoff and Kushner. Washington and Netanyahu are violating the ceasefire, and negotiations cannot be held if this situation continues.”
Ryan Grim points out the no-good, very bad role played by Pakistan’s US-backed military coup installed government:
The erroneous news reports indicating that the U.S. and Iran would be restarting talks were produced because Pakistan’s ISPR sent the following incorrect update to many journalists. (They didn’t send it directly to me, but I was forwarded it.)
This was the message:
“Breaking…
— Ryan Grim (@ryangrim) April 25, 2026
Most NC readers won’t be surprised to see Trump’s narratives collapsing as fast as they’re spun, but it is kind of shocking the amount of attention western MSM pays to Trump’s nonsensical on-again-off-again claims about negotiations with Iran.
Saturday’s lengthy NYT piece on Iran’s enriched uranium stocks and the challenges in front of Trump’s “negotiating team” (Kushner and Witknoff) is a masterpiece of the genre.
The Times piece on Iran’s Lego video offensive is far more informative, if equally full of clangers and western agit-prop.
Now let’s look at some more bad news that the MSM is allowing to seep into their narrative.
NBC, CSIS Breaking Bad News Gently
NBC News dropped a banger of a report headlined, “Iran caused more extensive damage to U.S. military bases than publicly known” (paywalled and no archived version available yet):
American military bases and other equipment in the Persian Gulf region suffered extensive damage from Iranian strikes that is far worse than publicly acknowledged and is expected to cost billions of dollars to repair, according to three U.S. officials, two congressional aides and another person familiar with the damage.
The Iranian regime swiftly retaliated after the Trump administration attacked on Feb. 28, hitting dozens of targets across U.S. military bases in seven Middle East countries. Those attacks struck warehouses, command headquarters, aircraft hangars, satellite communications infrastructure, runways, high-end radar systems and dozens of aircraft, according to the U.S. officials and an assessment by the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, D.C.
In the initial days of the war, an Iranian F-5 fighter jet bombed the U.S. base Camp Buehring in Kuwait, despite the base having air defenses, a rare breach that marked the first time an enemy fixed-wing aircraft has struck an American military base in years, according to two of the U.S. officials.
The U.S. bases that came under attack are home to thousands of American troops, and in some cases their families, though they were largely cleared out in the days and hours before the U.S. and Israeli went to war with Iran.
Note the part about the US base in Kuwait being bombed by an F-5 (!) fighter jet.
Wow.
But that’s not all.
It’s not just US defense that lagged, US offense didn’t overperform either:
🚨 The US intel community just admitted they OVERESTIMATED damage to Iran’s underground missile cities by 50%.
Iran buried their arsenal under mountains of granite. We dropped 14 of our most powerful bunker-busters — and may have as few as 6 left.
Replacements won’t arrive… pic.twitter.com/eHBh4pAEBC
— Brandon Weichert (@WeTheBrandon) April 25, 2026
And speaking of bunker busters…
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) dropped a bunker buster of a report about the profligate use of munitions in the Ramadan War so far (archived).
Concern about the status of U.S. munitions inventories has intensified as reports emerge about high expenditures of Tomahawks, Patriots, and other missiles in the Iran war. As Operation Epic Fury remains paused in a shaky ceasefire, there is an opportunity to assess whether the U.S. military nears the point of going “Winchester”—or running out of ammunition.
Analysis of seven key munitions shows that the United States has enough missiles to continue fighting this war under any plausible scenario. The risk—which will persist for many years—lies in future wars.
https://t.co/miPWkJ9YlC pic.twitter.com/TdbXwcILwN
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 25, 2026
In the 39 days of the air and missile campaign before the ceasefire, U.S. forces heavily used the seven munitions in Table 1. For four of them, the United States may have expended more than half of the prewar inventory. Rebuilding to prewar levels for the seven munitions will take from one to four years as missiles in the pipeline are delivered. These missiles will also be critical for a potential Western Pacific conflict. Even before the Iran war, stockpiles were deemed insufficient for a peer competitor fight. That shortfall is now even more acute, and building stockpiles to levels adequate for a war with China will take additional time.
Diminished inventories will also affect the U.S. supply of Patriot, Terminal High Altitude Area Defenses (THAADs), and Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs) to Ukraine and other allies and partners that use them. The United States will compete with those countries that also want to replenish and expand inventories.
But the news isn’t all bad for aggro Uncle Sam:
For ground attack munitions, available alternatives are far cheaper but with the same explosive yield. To illustrate the cost difference, a BLU-110 bomb fitted with a Joint Direct Attack Munition guidance kit costs less than $100,000 while a Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM) costs $2.6 million. Both accurately deliver 1,000-pound payloads. These munitions, however, have a shorter range and, thereby, put launch platforms in more danger. Air superiority is required to use them extensively.
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 25, 2026
Fortune summarizes the report (archived):
The Pentagon has used at least 45% of its stockpile of Precision Strike Missiles; 50% of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defenses (THAAD) interceptors inventory; and almost half of its stockpile of Patriot ballistic interceptor missiles used for interception over the first seven weeks of war with Iran, according to an analysis published this week by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
…
Using data from the CSIS report, Fortune calculated the U.S. has so far spent about $24 billion on the seven major munitions used, but the cost of the Iran war is projected to far exceed that sum. Public policy expert and Harvard Kennedy School lecturer Linda Bilmes said the cost of the war is likely to exceed $1 trillion, as the administration underestimates the short-term costs of infrastructure damage, as well as long-term costs, such as lifetime disability benefits for thousands of veterans.
…
Of concern to experts like Bilmes is the U.S.’s disproportional spending on munitions compared to Iran. Iran’s Shahed drones each cost between $20,000 and $50,000 to produce, per Reuters, while a Patriot interceptor used to shoot down drones or more complex aerial threats could cost about $4 million, as it requires more sophisticated technology than a drone to function.
Maybe that’s why there’s a big shift toward drones and other automated weapons systems in the next Pentagon budget.
Drones! It’s All Drones These Days!
John Robb posts:
The massive bureaucracy of the US establishment went from a slow, timid exploration of autonomous warfare to a chaotic embrace of it nearly overnight.
FY 2026 funding for autonomous warfare: $225 million
(DAWG: Defense Autonomous Warfare Group)
Proposed FY2027 funding (submitted mid-April): $54.6 billion
That’s a ~24,000 % increase in a year.
After describing Pentagon reactions to his 2016 report for the the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Autonomous Warfare, Robb explains why the Pentagon is suddenly so interested in drones:
(Iran) proved that drones could serve as a deterrent in many of the same ways deterrence did during the Cold War (although with much more flexibility). Here’s what this means.
Iran’s ability to mount daily attacks using drones puts growing pressure on global energy markets (Strait closure and damage to Gulf oil assets) and the governments of US allies in the region. From now on, it’s a good assumption that any future attacks on Iran will result in extensive damage to the global economy.
This deterrent capability also allowed them to shape the war by exchanging attacks, tit for tat. For example, when the US or Israel expanded to a new target class, Iran immediately responded with similar attacks, forcing the US to avoid that target in the future. Additionally, they used this deterrent capability to erect barriers to entry and zones of control. The dual blockades (Iran and the US) of the Strait feel similar to the Berlin Wall.
Robb also drops this clanger that I just have to share, calling the Ramadan War “a remote military adventure of little consequence to US national security.” Whoo boy.
Armchair Warlord has some insights about US naval logistics and why we have been seeing such dire photos of the slop the sailors are being served:
Allow me to explain something about military logistics which may shed some light on what is occurring here.⬇️
The US military doesn’t ship food from CONUS to deployed forces if at all possible. It issues contracts to third party vendors to supply food in bulk for pickup or even… https://t.co/s626G0QUbG pic.twitter.com/P28BWVFgnd
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) April 26, 2026
I’ll have more about the “little” consequences below.
Next we’ll try to get inside some Israeli and Emirate heads, a kind of psychic sewer scuba diving.
The View from Inside the Axis
Let’s start with Daniel Levy, a former Israeli “peace negotiator” and J Street co-founder:
Former advisor to the Israeli government Daniel Levy on the “Greater Israel” plan:
“Israel wants to be surrounded by failed, fragmenting, or co-opted states. Its goal in Iran is regime and state collapse, not regime change.”
He then says Israel wants to weaken the Gulf States… pic.twitter.com/h1p9HWSUXr
— Ben Swann (@BenSwann_) April 25, 2026
Levy is on the bleeding edge of sanity for committed zionists. Let’s hear from another who’s making his way to the fringes of Israeli discourse.
Israeli security analyst Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz has quite a tweet from the perspective of the one of the last reality connected, but nonetheless ill-intentioned, talking head allowed on Israeli TV responding to massive criticism that has come his way from his fellow zionist occupiers following his appearance on Raviv Drucker’s popular program on Israeli Channel 13:
My analyses were based on my familiarity with a complex system like the Islamic Republic, and primarily on the understanding that this campaign was built, at least in part, on a mistaken understanding of the enemy.
To my surprise, there were those who claimed that I was “weakening Israel” or “undermining the system,” simply because I described reality also through Iranian eyes. For me, as someone who has devoted years of his life, both in regular service and in reserves, to trying to weaken Iran in every possible way—out of the understanding that there is no greater enemy to Israel—it was criticism that was hard for me to accept. It seems I was “punished” only because I chose to present a professional and objective analysis of the adversary.
Like any researcher, I’m glad when my assessments come true. But more than that, I’m troubled by the fact that we’re not drawing the necessary lessons. The statement that Iran emerges from this campaign strengthened—even if it challenges existing perceptions—does not express support for Iran. It’s a realistic analysis, not a value-based position that seeks to challenge the existing strategy, which in my view brought Iran closer to nuclear weapons and did not distance it. The fact that some interpret it otherwise strikes me as strange and concerning.
I know there are those who struggle to understand this, but my professional assessment is that the recent developments are actually bringing Iran closer to crossing the nuclear Rubicon, not the opposite.
In the bottom line, it seems that in Israel 2026, even a professional, realistic, and uncompromising analysis may become a target for attack when various actors misuse it. But what concerns me even more is the question of whether other voices were heard within the system itself. I very much hope so.
The problem is not with me or any other researcher who thought this campaign was headed for failure. The problem is with those who planned this campaign and built it on a highly shaky database, and it’s a shame that people don’t know how to separate between the things.
I intend to continue challenging foundational assumptions in the future as well. With all my heart, I want this regime to fall, but if the path chosen by the US and Israel strengthens it—that is my duty to say so.
Now let’s hear from inside the UAE. Might want to indulge in your drug of choice for this head spinner from the UAE controlled Arab Gulf States Institute:
Since Iran began its campaign of strikes against the Gulf Arab states on February 28, the United Arab Emirates has absorbed the majority of Iranian attacks – at least 2,583. As allies from Europe, Oceania, and Asia moved quickly to support Gulf air defenses, the Arab world issued statements condemning Iran. The crisis, the region’s largest since the 1990 invasion of Kuwait, is not only testing the Gulf’s air defenses, it is exposing the hollowness of Arab solidarity, and the Gulf states are taking note.
The UAE has so far resisted calls for retaliation, choosing instead to reinforce its defenses and maintain normalcy by reopening its airspace and keeping businesses running. Its multilayered defenses have successfully blocked 95% of attacks, and it is adapting its defensive strategies to sustain operations for the long run – for example, deploying Apache helicopters to use their guns against drones.
That the Iranian attacks have focused largely on the UAE suggests two things: that Tehran’s long-range capabilities have potentially been degraded and that Iran feels more threatened by the UAE than any other Gulf Arab state. In leaked screenshots of Telegram messages, former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that the UAE is equal to Israel, and Iran must focus on attacking it as Iran continues to strike at Israeli and U.S. interests.
In the face of Iranian aggression, several states have stepped up to provide real assistance to the UAE. Primarily, the United States and Israel have proved to be true allies by offering support through extensive military aid, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic backing. Further afield, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Australia deployed early warning systems, air defenses, and fighters to support Emirati interception efforts. Greece offered munitions from its sovereign stockpiles. South Korea sped up the exportation of its Cheongong (KM-SAM Block II) air defense systems and also sent equipment from its stockpiles. And Ukraine has offered inexpensive drone-interception systems and experts with experience countering Russian and Iranian drones.
The same support has not come from the Arab world.
At least they’re showing some signs of figuring out who their friends are, but otherwise not a lot of contact with consensus reality.
And about that consensus reality…
Consensus Reality Bites
Craig Tindale has a piece on X.com called “Famine: The Coming Shock to Global Food Supplies.”
Some quotes:
The global agricultural and industrial complex is heading into a poly shock, with an upstream sulphuric acid and Naphtha supply crisis colliding directly with a forecasted severe El Niño, generating generational system risks for 2026–2027.
Sulphuric acid is a critical upstream chokepoint; approximately 45% of global consumption is dedicated to the wet-process production of phosphoric acid for phosphate fertilisers.
This chemical bottleneck is currently being compressed by the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for approximately 49% to 50% of sulphur & Naphtha flows, and by China’s unprecedented mandate to halt all smelter-by-product sulphuric acid exports from May 2026 to protect its domestic agriculture.
…
This input-side supply collapse coincides with strong atmospheric teleconnections: meteorological consensus (NOAA CPC, IRI, ECMWF) confirms ENSO-neutral conditions will persist through June 2026, transitioning to an El Niño event by May–July 2026 with a 75% probability.
…
The convergence of higher nutrient application costs and climatic stress guarantees widespread yield destruction, forcing global agribusiness and sovereign risk systems into a cascading polycrisis spanning food security, delays in the green-energy transition, and severe macro-financial spillovers.
Significant declines in crop yields are shaping up to be severe.
Mr. Tindale also has a report on Substack called, “The Four Horsemen of the PolyCrisis: Sulphur, Naphtha, El Niño & Central Bank Amplification.” Subtitled: “The Petrochemical Stack Enables Global Agriculture , Shortages During What Could Strongest El Nino in Our Lifetimes Puts Famine in the Forecast for 2026-2027”
Here’s a couple of charts from the piece:
Craig has a whole lot more at his Substack. Recommended.
Around the YouTubes
Patrick Boyle is one of the biggest popularizers of economic and business news on YouTube with almost 2 million subscribers.
Boyle’s piece above grapples with the disturbing break between Mr. Market and consensus reality.
Investors seem to be suffering from a bad case of muscle memory. They’re sitting at comfortable desks in New York and London, assuming that the administration will eventually experience what investors have been calling a TACO moment, where taco stands for Trump Always Chickens Out.
They expect the president to look at the upcoming midterm elections, look at the rising price of gasoline, and simply walk away from the conflict, much like he did when he retreated on his liberation day tariffs last year.
The fatal flaw in this assumption is that a trade war is fought with administrative inc. You can cancel a tariff with a weekend post on Truth Social. A shooting war in the straight of Hormuz is fought with drones, naval barricades, and anti-ship missiles.
You cannot unilaterally back down from a conflict where the other side has their own agenda.
The Iranian regime has survived the initial strikes and discovered that holding the global economy hostage is an incredibly powerful piece of leverage.
And unlike a nuclear weapon, it’s one that they can actually use. As I’ve said before, it takes two to TACO.
And right now, the other side of the table is busy seizing container ships.
For the commercial ships currently trapped in the Persian Gulf, the situation has devolved into something resembling a high stakes maritime prison break.
This next one is a recommended supplement to the dominant alt-media crew on YouTube.
What Tucker Carlson and John Mearsheimer Get Wrong About Empire | Prof. Joseph Massad & Ajamu Baraka by BettBeat Media
Joseph Massad and Ajamu Baraka clear up some misconceptions existing in both the right-wing ‘anti-imperialist’ and liberal scene.
Read on Substack
Stay safe, y’all!
