[Today’s Iran war post fired before finished. Please return at 8:00 AM EDT or refresh this page then for a final version]
It would be better if I were proven wrong, but it looks as if your humble blogger’s initial prediction that the Iran war would be a test to destruction is proving to be valid. Unfortunately, it is looking more and more like what will be destroyed is the global economy and with it, the living standards of billions.
We were confident that settlement talks would fail due to the Marianas-trench level distance between the negotiating positions of the two sides…even before getting to Israeli determination to scupper any nascent “deal”.
The latest dustup, of the US fabricating an excuse to attack Iran (and even worse, insultingly depicting the bombing as “self defense” and “proportional) and Iran promptly retaliating, shows that all of Trump’s talk about peace deals is merely to keep oil prices at a tolerably bad level. As much as some commentators, such as Robert Barnes, keep saying that Trump wants an exit, his actions scream otherwise, not just his backing of continued attacks on Iran but also his demonization and doubling down on unattainable negotiation positions, like not giving Iran any of its frozen assets at the outset, and demanding that Iran export its “nuclear dust”.
The reality is that Trump’s ego needs plus continued information pollution via Fox News and Zionist insiders plus the fact that the Israel Lobby would eat him alive if he put the choke chain on Israel confirms there will no negotiated settlement. That also means that Trump will not attempt to declare victory and throw up his hands and leave.
We had harbored a smidge of unwarranted hope that the Gulf states would vote for their economic survival and peel away from the US, which would considerably constrain US operations in the theater. Sadly, the latest unwarranted US attacks on Iran produced neither disapproving noises nor denial of use of their airspaces.
So the US plan seems to be to continue a low level of ongoing harassment of Iran, which amounts to extremely high cost political theater. It allow Trump to regularly generate news clips that show that yessiree, the US is in there regularly punching the nose of those bad and intransigent Iranians. It allows him to placate Zionists and Christian evangelicals by Doing Something.
Bizarrely, the US is choosing to wage the sort of conflict that suits Iran best. They have planned and even more important, built up weapons stockpiles based on their plan to wage a long war. Iran recognized decades ago that the US and Israel were not set up to conduct long campaigns. An additional factor operating in Iran’s favor is loss intolerance in the US and Israel.
Now admittedly, there is the not-inconsiderable risk of the current tit-for-tat and Iranian measured pacing of escalation to spiral out of control. Iran has promised ferocious punishment if the US or Israel meaningfully hits its energy infrastructure again, as in assuredly returning world development levels to before the 1930s by taking out Gulf State energy infrastructure and desalination plants.
We’ll unpack the foregoing in more depth soon. But one final concern: recall of late we have been trying to get a handle on when the oil cliff will hit the US, as in when inventories will no longer be able to make up for the loss of energy supplies from the Middle East, and gas and diesel prices in the US will rise suddenly. This cliff effect is important not simply for its impact on the economy and financial markets, but also for its potential to force Trump out of his too-comfortable stasis of not recognizing his monster loss in Iran.
However, seeing Trump use a ridiculous, bogus pretext to again attack Iran should demonstrate beyond all possible doubt that he has no interest in settling the conflict. And than means even if gas prices were to rise to $10.00 a gallon or the US economy were to start to break due to high diesel costs and/or shortages.
Recall that reader Ben Panga, who has a lot of experience with severe narcissists, said that they fear humiliation more than death.
Retreating from the Iran war would crystalize his humiliation. Or to put it in finance terms, it would mark his and the Zionists’ wildly inflated claims to market.
By contrast, continuing to fight allows Trump to pretend that victory can be achieved. I am told Fox News is still running that line, bigly.
Trump would also keep proclaiming that Iran will nuke the US and that he personally is the only one willing to prevent that, and that line that high prices are merely short term pain to achieve that essential end.
I don’t see how anyone can stop Trump if he persists in his present course. America is too geographically and politically fragmented to allow for organized opposition, even before getting to the massive growth of surveillance and Trump building up his ICE brownshirts.
Now to the latest kinetic war events. We had not bothered flagging the downing of an Apache helicopter in the Strait of Hormuz environs since it was not clear how the incident happened and both its operators were unharmed. Trump initially seemed inclined to minimize it (US birds falling into the drink, potentially as a result of friendly fire or mechanical failures, is not a good look).
That did not last long:1
Mind you, this is one friggin’ helicopter and no one died, which given how fragile helicopters are, seems like a vanishingly unlikely outcome if Iran had intended to destroy it.
The IRCG has denied that it attacked the Apache. Professor Mohammed Marandi, at the top of a talk with Daniel Davis, said he had asked two top military officials about the incident. Both said Iran had nothing to do with it. He reaffirmed that position on Twitter:
For the record, Iran did not shoot down the helicopter, and Trump is lying, but the Islamic Republic is more than prepared to teach the Epstein Coalition a lesson. pic.twitter.com/mb5sG4x24c
— Seyed Mohammad Marandi (@s_m_marandi) June 9, 2026
Davis separately debunked the US claims as implausible:
Plus, if a Shahid drone hit a helicopter, it would’ve blown it into a massive fireball, and no one would’ve survived. That both Pilots allegedly walked away without serious injury, implies this was a mechanical failure, or accident, not a shootdown. It is nearly impossible to…
— Daniel Davis Deep Dive (@DanielLDavis1) June 9, 2026
And Davis elaborated further in a stand-alone talk:
From a lightly cleaned-up machine transcript:
On our show early this morning said that CENTCOM was not responding to anything…But then then things started getting a little bit more strange…..right before one of our shows earlier today and President Trump said that he was informed by the military that the Iranians shot down one of our sophisticated Apache helicopters while patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz. There were two pilots involved…. So first of all, the president was not clear on what shot it down. Was it small arms fire, machine guns, uh was it in anti-aircraft missile of some sort?…
Well, subsequent in the day, apparently citing sources in the Pentagon, you had CNN and CBS both reporting that it was a Shahed drone. Now, that got my alarm bells flowing because I’m saying it, hang on a second. First of all, a Shahed drone is a point-to-point target. It it you launch it from wherever your origin point is and then it lands at the target it’s sent to. It flies from point A to point B. It doesn’t have any kind of internal navigation that can allow it to go in different directions other than to follow a course…Not designed to hit a moving target. It’s designed to hit a ground target.
And so the idea that these this that a drone that drone in particular is going to be able to hit an AH64 which is one of our most sophisticated helicopters. So one can wonder how is it that they didn’t even know that there was another aircraft in the area. That’s another part that just doesn’t quite add up.
But that this enemy aircraft that can’t maneuver was able to apparently sneak up on an AH64 and then hit it. But then even that doesn’t pass a common sense test. An a Shahed drone has a large warhead on its nose. That’s the whole point of it. It’s a it’s a suicide drone….They have a large explosive warhead in the front. And so if it had hit a helicopter, I promise you the p the pilots would not be safe and unharmed….And even if you just accidentally flew into the flight path, then it’s going to destroy the thing entirely. It’s a huge explosion.
Larry Johnson was similarly skeptical. From Battle of the Missiles — The Apache Scam:
A truly bizarre series of events off the coast of Iran today that in my opinion were entirely provoked, if not staged, by the US. It started with multiple news reports that a US Army Apache helicopter had been shot down in the Persian Gulf but the two pilots emerged unscathed. What the hell was an Apache helicopter doing? The AH-64 Apache is a twin-engine attack helicopter primarily designed for anti-armor warfare, close air support, and armed reconnaissance. Apparently it was conducting reconnaissance. The US claims that Iran shot it down, but Iran insists it did no such thing.
I am bothered by the claim it was shot down… If the rocket or bullets had hit the cockpit or damaged the main rotor, the craft would have plunged into the water and the pilots would not have survived. So what happened? Was one of the twin engines damaged but still able to function? Was the rear rotor damaged? Those are the only two scenarios I can imagine that would not have caused a catastrophic crash. Once the helo landed in the water, the pilots had to open the canopy and jump into the water. Hopefully the main rotor — assuming it was intact when the copter hit the water — shattered on impact. Otherwise, the pilots would have been shredded trying to escape.
But Trump’s obviously thin pretext was done one better by CENTCOM:
Indeed, the response was proportional with Israeli characteristics:
United States central command claimed that this attack was “proportional“ to the allegation that Iran took down a single Apache helicopter. And yet here we are, 20 targets attacked.
In what universe is that “proportional“?
And then the idea “if Iran retaliates…“ I doubt… https://t.co/wnGviDGaIS
— Daniel Davis Deep Dive (@DanielLDavis1) June 10, 2026
More on the US strikes:
🇮🇷🇺🇸Middle East war update
– American attacks today 6/9/2026
– In response to the IRGC shooting down a US AH- 64 Apache Helicopter the Americans have struck the following towns/ cities of Bandar Abbas, Ahvaz, Sirik, Bandar-e- Jansk, Jam, Nahavand, and they also carried out… pic.twitter.com/jOVkcNOppd
— WarMapper🇺🇸 (@CKMapss) June 10, 2026
And self-defense? Puhleeze.
Some unconfirmed reports on the Iranian response. Taking out two Reapers would be a meaningful cost to the US:
During the US attack on Iran tonight, the United States lost 2 highly sophisticated MQ-9 Reaper drones over Iranian airspace, with their combined value estimated $80 million. pic.twitter.com/nHf7HRGKxw
— Current Report (@Currentreport1) June 10, 2026
And:
The New York Times reports that “nearly all” Iranian missiles and drones were intercepted, suggesting there were some impacts. pic.twitter.com/QCZyRbocy3
— AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_) June 10, 2026
More detail from Aljazeera’s live feed on the US attacks and the Iran response:
Iran warns of more attacks if US strikes continue
President Donald Trump spoke about Iranians shooting down an Apache helicopter. The Iranian deputy foreign minister denied that the attack on the helicopter was deliberate.
The IRGC has published several statements confirming that Jask and Sirik have been targeted by the US, with a telecommunications tower in Sirik among the sites impacted.
In response, the IRGC says it has conducted drone attacks on US assets and bases across the region, with naval forces also reported to have carried out attacks on US assets.
The IRGC has spoken about additional attacks, including on four significant targets, among them F-35 fighter jet hangars at a US base and a command and control centre in Jordan.
Overall, the message from Iran is twofold: First, condemning the US attacks, and second, warning that if the attacks continue, further responses will follow.
Nevertheless, most experts assessed the speedy Iran punch back as proportional rather than escalatory.
Some readers yesterday expressed their frustration as to why Iran was participating in negotiations and not hitting the US and Israel much harder. First, as we indicated above, a slower, longer war will bleed out US and Israel will and materiel must more cost effectively than a hotter war. If the talks serve as a device for Trump and his allies to grift massively via market manipulation2 and thus incentivize them to keep the conflict at a lower level of intensity, so be it. There is no cost to Iran as long as it is not lulled into a sense of complacency.
Second, a slower pace, which the negotiation theater facilitates, also lowers the odds of extremely bad outcomes like the US attacking Iran energy infrastructure (as in move to one of its few remaining higher rungs on the escalation ladder) which would lead Iran to destroy most Gulf state energy assets, either directly or by destroying desalination plants. It also should reduce the likelihood of escalation to nuclear attacks. Experts have repeatedly said that any use of nuclear weapons, even the much-ballyhooed tactical nuke, quickly becomes a global conflagration.
Third, both the Aljazeera and Guardian live feeds featured statements from Russia and China urging the combatants to exercise restraint. So it is not hard to imagine that both of Iran’s important backers want Iran to keep up with the largely fictional talks in the remote hope that something breaks on the US side.3
Several commentators, such as Matthew Hoh and Robert Pape, have argued that the US and Iran could continue in a moderately intense tit-for-tat on an extended basis. Both Hoh and Pape peculiarly overlooked that the global economy would fall apart if that continued for all that long, since Strait of Hormuz traffic would remain chocked.
Douglas Macgregor, who knows Trump personally, made similar observations in a new talk with Glenn Diesen.
From a lightly cleaned-up machine transcript:
We have an insoluble problem in the Persian Gulf. There’s no easy way for Donald Trump and his administration and Washington to escape from the trap of self-destruction.
We started this. We can’t win it, so we’re leaving. Well, that means you lost. Yes, we lost. But it’s better to lose now than drag this tragedy out for many more months. But that’s exactly what we are positioned to do.
And you have the same group of people that want to maintain this blockade and keep the war with Iran at a low boil in Washington and in Israel. And they are the same people that want to keep things going in Ukraine. Even if it means no real change, no real reversal of any kind, because they all know the war, as far as Ukraine is concerned, is lost militarily. They’re just banking that Putin will sit there and simmer. So they’ll sit and simmer. So we’re simmering quietly in Ukraine, simmering quietly, not so quietly, but we’re simmering in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Oman. And things just get worse.
You know, the Houthis just said that the Red Sea is now blocked to Israel and all friends of Israel. That helps the the global economy enormously, doesn’t it?
So, you know, there’s no end in sight.
There’s no imminent agreement because President Trump and his friends cannot back down…
And what have we heard from President Trump? When someone brings up the economy and the impact on the American, I don’t care about that.
He was very, very straightforward. He didn’t hesitate. He came back later and said, well, that’s not really what I meant.
He said exactly what he meant.
And while you were busy watching the US and Iran exchange blows, the Lebanon front remains hot. Iran may have held back its fire with the US because it intends to smite Israel again, which is something neither the US nor Israel cope with well. Again from the Aljazeera live feed:
Heavy fighting between Hezbollah and Israeli forces in Lebanon
The early morning hours were very intense in terms of the number of Israeli air strikes around the city of Tyre that resulted in deaths.
A wave of missile strikes targeted the town of Tayr, which is just outside of Tyre city, and there was another strike on the Palestinian refugee camp al-Bas.
Here in Tyre artillery shelling hasn’t stopped throughout the night. We’ve also heard exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and Israeli troops.
Hezbollah said targeted Israeli soldiers in the town of Bayada in the southwestern front. The Lebanese armed group also targeted troops in the town of Khiam just in the past hour or so.
Hezbollah also announced a new operation against Israeli forces in the Nabatieh district where the fighting continues after Israeli troops took the high ground around Beaufort Castle.
Israel’s military is also intensifying attacks on Niha, north of the Litani River, trying to take more ground in eastern of Lebanon.
And more seems likely to come:
The war between Iran and Israel is coming soon. Nothing to do with the US helicopter downing. Israel rejects the Iranian ROE and will attack the suburb of Beirut soon to trigger Iran’s retaliation.
All in my latest article.
— Elijah J. Magnier 🇪🇺 (@ejmalrai) June 9, 2026
This ought to be comic relief save for the stakes in lives and infrastructure:
🇺🇸🇮🇱⚔️🇱🇧🇮🇷 Israeli media: “The stubbornness of the Iranians and Hezbollah has indeed proven to us last year that we are facing unexpecting enemies.”
“It is difficult to subdue the Iranians and Hezbollah as they possess a very high capacity for endurance.”
“The Israeli Army…
— dana (@dana916) June 10, 2026
On the real economy front, warnings keep coming in on the further draining of reserves:
This puts Cushing right around 21k with operational limit claimed to be at 20k, so 1 week left. https://t.co/luEbpbj4rx
— 471TO (@TOzgokmen) June 9, 2026
From the largest oil trader in the world. https://t.co/fHLbsWIeA8
— HFI Research (@HFI_Research) June 10, 2026
Oil strategists keep raising alarms over shrinking oil reserves. Carlyle’s Jeff Currie: “It is robbing Peter to pay Paul -liquidating the buffer built over decades to suppress the very price signal that would trigger the investment response the mkt needs” https://t.co/tXF2pWyUo6 https://t.co/whq2xJKnKK
— Lisa Abramowicz (@lisaabramowicz1) June 10, 2026
However, again confirming the difficulty of getting a good reading, some sources claim that more fuel is getting out of the Persian Gulf than the reported movement of ships would lead you to believe. From Gulf News in Oil holds near $92: ‘Ghost’ tankers ease nerves amid rising US-Iran military clashes
Global oil prices remained elevated but relatively stable on Wednesday after fresh US military strikes on Iran heightened tensions in the Middle East, suggesting traders remain cautious but are not yet pricing in a worst-case disruption to global energy supplies….
Recent research from JPMorgan suggests visible commercial traffic through the strait remains far below pre-war levels, yet significant volumes of oil continue moving through “ghost” ships, unofficial channels and alternative export routes, helping prevent a severe supply shock.
Energy markets appeared to reflect that assessment Wednesday.
Gasoline futures climbed 0.51% and heating oil gained 0.24%, while US natural gas slipped 0.73%.
Among regional crude benchmarks, Murban crude, a key Middle Eastern grade exported from the United Arab Emirates, fell nearly 4% to $88.24 per barrel, while Mars crude, a major US Gulf Coast benchmark, dropped more than 3% to $110.04.
By contrast, there are still many many vessels still bottled up in the Gulf, when to get adequate energy and cargo shipments, there needs to be a good level of two-way traffic. From Lloyd’s List in Quarter of mainstream tankers have exited Gulf but over 160 ships still marooned:
More than 160 mainstream tankers have remained stranded in the Middle East Gulf for over 100 days since hostilities began in late February
While some 25% of the tankers present at the start of the crisis have managed to leave, departures have slowed significantly of late
_____
1 Guardian’s live feed:
The Wall Street Journal has reported that Donald Trump was not convinced of the need to retaliate against Iran after the Apache Helicopter went down earlier on Tuesday. He spent much of the day playing down the incident, telling reporters that it wasn’t a big deal.
But according to the WSJ, his mind was changed after a briefing from defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, and chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Dan Caine.
The Associated Press has reported that the Apache helicopter that crashed went down after colliding with an Iranian drone. It is not clear whether the collision was intentional, but US officials reportedly told the president that the attack merited a response nonetheless.
Trump would then go on to say that Iran shot down the helicopter, in a post on Truth Social, and declared that the US must “respond to this attack.” Hours later the US began the strikes on Iran.
2 The financial press is still selling settlement hopium hard, as this Bloomberg landing page screenshot illustrates:
3 I know for someone like me, well removed from the front row, to question reporters like Jeremy Scahill, who speaks directly to Iranian official, may seem presumptuous. But I am at a loss to understand how he cannot see that these negotiators who keep regularly telling him that a deal is near do not see that they are pulling on levers that are not connected to anything. Or perhaps at best they do not want to be accused of spiking a “deal” by getting Trump pissed off via contradicting his patter. See the first half of this show for a long-form illustration.
Having said that, the second part of this show is very informative. The two guests are experts on maritime law and treaties and explain long-form that Iran is seeking to rely on transit rules it has consistently advocated for and existed before UNCLOS was “innocent passage” which gives state like Iran some ability to regulate, particularly in the name of security, as opposed to the UNCLOS regime of “transit passage,” which does not.
Done for today! See you tomorrow!
