POTUS Trump’s “indefinite” ceasefire held, with the exception of Iran seizing some ships and the ongoing Israeli destruction of Southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, inflation is hitting U.S. shores with more to come and more bad war news keeps hitting the MSM.
Oh, yea the US Senate voted down the 5th attempt to limit Trump’s war powers in a near-party line vote that swapped Rand Paul (R-KY) for John Fetterman (D-PA).
Iranians Shoot Some Ships
Per the NYT:
Iranian state media published a video released by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps that it said showed the interception of two cargo vessels, the Francesca and Epaminondas, on Wednesday. The Revolutionary Guards said it had seized both ships near the Strait of Hormuz. The New York Times verified that the vessels in the video were the Francesca and Epaminodas, which are seen being approached by a speedboat flying an Iranian flag. The video then shows armed forces scaling the vessels from the boat with a ladder. Footage of armed forces conducting operations in ship interiors could not be verified.
Tuomas Malinen posted that “Two of (the ships) are said to belong to MSC, a major European shipping company, while the third would be Greek-owned. One of the ships has reportedly suffered heavy damage.”
The NYT had a map too:
— Nat Wilson Turner (@natwilsonturner) April 23, 2026
Here’s the Iranian video (which the Times won’t link to, lames):
IRGC released footage of the interception of two vessels, MSC-FRANCESCA and EPAMINODES, after maritime violations in the Strait of Hormuz.
Follow: https://t.co/mLGcUTS2ei pic.twitter.com/ZUUBbzbA2N
— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) April 22, 2026
The NYT chided Trump for letting this slide:
on Wednesday, after Iran seized two ships near the Strait of Hormuz, the White House was quick to argue the action was not a deal breaker for potential peace negotiations.
About That Devastated Iranian Military
CBS (of all outlets) has some leaks from inside the Pentagon:
The Islamic Republic of Iran maintains more military capabilities than the White House or Pentagon has publicly admitted, according to multiple U.S. officials with knowledge of intelligence on the matter.
About half of Iran’s stockpile of ballistic missiles and its associated launch systems were still intact as of the start of the ceasefire in early April, three of the officials told CBS News.
Roughly 60% of the naval arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is still in existence, the officials said, including fast-attack speed boats. On Wednesday, Iranian gunboats attacked several commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, shortly after President Trump announced he was unilaterally extending a ceasefire to allow more time for peace talks.
Iranian air power has been significantly degraded but not erased, said the officials, who requested anonymity from CBS News because they were not authorized to discuss the matters publicly.
About two-thirds of Iran’s air force is still believed to be operational, the officials said, after an intensive U.S. and Israeli campaign that struck thousands of targets, including storage and production facilities.
I wonder if the leaking of the above has anything to do with the below.
Hegseth Fires US Secretary of the Navy
I’m pretty sure the DUI hire that is Greasy Pete Hegseth, US Secretary of Defense War is a lock for worst SoD of the 21st Century, surging past the old school insane-and-evil-but-able-to-playact-competent Don Rumsfeld only a little over a year into his tenure.
CBS got the scoop (note the link goes to MSN.com which is syndicating CBS’ content, the internet is so broken):
Navy Secretary John Phelan is leaving his role effective immediately, chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell said Wednesday.
A White House official told CBS News that President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth agreed on the need for new Navy leadership, and Hegseth informed Phelan of the decision before it was made public.
The Navy’s new acting civilian leader will be Undersecretary of the Navy Hung Cao, according to Parnell. Cao is a Navy veteran who ran for Senate in 2024 as the GOP’s nominee in Virginia, losing to Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine.
Phelan is the latest high-profile official to depart the federal government in recent months. Hegseth asked Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George to step down earlier this month, and the Army officers who led the Transportation and Training Command and the Chaplain Corps were removed from their roles. The head of the U.S. military’s Southern Command, Navy Adm. Alvin Holsey, also retired at the end of last year.
Hegseth vs. the courtier-class, ossified, completely politicized, sold-to-the-highest-bidding-contractor leadership at the Pentagon is one of those Godzilla vs. the Smog Monster deals where I can’t decide which side is doing more damage to the American war machine, but Hegseth is the more novel menace, and hence more frightening.
Regardless, Phelan presided over multiple debacles like 2025’s Operation Rough Rider, which is worth reviewing because the complete failure of US military is highly relevant, via Middle East Monitor:
This campaign—costing over $1 billion and involving aircraft carrier strike groups, B-2 bombers, and advanced missiles—was intended to cripple the Houthis’ military capabilities. However, just two months after the operation began, on May 6, 2025, Trump unexpectedly announced a ceasefire agreement with the Houthis…
The U.S. military operation, launched in March 2025, aimed to destroy the Houthis’ missile arsenal, drones, and military infrastructure. Yet despite massive spending and cutting-edge weapons, it failed to meet its strategic goals.
Operation Rough Rider targeted over 800 locations but had limited impact on Houthi capabilities. Relying on underground facilities and Iranian support, the Houthis not only survived the assaults but escalated their attacks on commercial and military vessels. This situation posed the greatest challenge to U.S. maritime hegemony since World War II; the Houthis became bolder, repeatedly targeting even American warships.
I’ll get to the economy, I promise but I really do need to cover the horrors Israel is committing in Southern Lebanon.
Israel Remodels Southern Lebanon, Gaza-Style
Iranian media covers it like this:
“Peace with Israel will not happen”
This is one of latest reports of Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil whom Israel murdered a few hours ago.
Here, she reported on victims of recent Israeli offensive in Lebanon as Beirut prepared for talks with Israel; She is now a victim herself. https://t.co/sbjEYAnOtQ pic.twitter.com/FeszKN9XZf
— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) April 22, 2026
The NYT covers it like this:
The Lebanese Red Cross said its teams came under fire on Wednesday while trying to evacuate two journalists from the site of an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon, forcing them to withdraw. The rescue crews were targeted by a warning strike along with machine-gun fire, according to Alexi Nehme, a director with the organization. One journalist was rescued, but the other remained trapped under rubble, he said. The Israeli military denied in a statement that it was preventing rescuers from reaching the injured journalists, adding that the incident was under investigation.
“Investigation.” Reminds me of Biden spokescriminal Matt “Smirkula” Miller.
A little terrorizing to go with the murder:
I reached out on WhatsApp to the account that was sending death threats to Lebanese journalist Amal Khalil shortly before her death in an Israeli airstrike.
After telling him I’m a reporter, the man behind the account called me and identified himself as Gal Gideon Ben Avraham https://t.co/jEG5KI7s0V
— Noah Hurowitz (@NoahHurowitz) April 22, 2026
Check out the devastation:
The New Arab speaks to returnees in Nabatiyeh, southern Lebanon, as they cautiously return to their towns. Residents walk through damaged streets, inspect destroyed homes and shops, and begin rebuilding amid deep uncertainty.
[Video: Hussein Baydoun] pic.twitter.com/TjkxO922ML
— The New Arab (@The_NewArab) April 22, 2026
Here’s another media compare and contrast.
The New Arab:
“It’s a feeling that can’t be described,” she told The New Arab, her voice full of something that sounded closer to pride than grief. “As if our souls came back to us.”
The visit lasted only hours. The house that had sheltered them was gone.
But Zahraa was certain that the return itself carried meaning beyond the physical, a message, she said, that “the owner of the land does not abandon their right no matter the cost.
“Stones can be replaced,” she said. “Dignity, once broken, cannot be rebuilt.”
Before the family turned back toward Beirut, she took one last look at her village. She did not see death. She saw life waiting, quietly, under the ash.
L’Orient Today:
Widespread destruction forces displaced residents to turn back in south Lebanon.
In a reception center in Saida, many had set out for home at dawn on April 17, the day a truce began, only to turn back…
I highly recommend the Substack video interview linked below.
Why You MUST RESIST: Israel Is ERASING South Lebanon, While the World Looks Away by Fiorella Isabel
Dr. Marwa Osman is on the ground in Lebanon and reveals the ethnic cleansing, the betrayal of Lebanon’s government, and why the Resistance is the only thing standing between people and annihilation.
Read on Substack
Ok, let’s get to the economy because reality may be starting to kick in.
US Inflation Was Way Up in March
Here comes the food inflation
Costs for food companies jumped 7.9% yoy in March (vs. 4.2% in Feb.)
This is basically just from higher fuel costs – we’re still waiting for the impact of higher fertilizer, plastics, etc.
From the Odd Lots newsletter:https://t.co/y6NWptOKSD pic.twitter.com/0JbRYyth8W
— Tracy Alloway (@tracyalloway) April 22, 2026
More from the Odd Lots Newsletter (Bloomberg):
It should be obvious by now that the impact of the Iran War will take time to work its way through the global economy. Last week, we still had ships unloading barrels of oil that they had picked up in the Gulf before the conflict began. Many companies have stockpiles of critical chemicals and materials that act as a buffer to immediate price shocks. And in agriculture, the full effects of higher fertilizer costs won’t really be fully felt until harvest.
…
That jump (in food prices) was driven mostly by diesel and heating oil, meaning we haven’t even seen much impact from things like higher plastics prices or fertilizer just yet. There’s a sequencing at play here. There’s also a layering effect as higher fertilizer costs get added on top of fuel expenses etc.
Urea is a good example. On the podcast, we’ve talked about the surging cost of New Orleans (NOLA) urea, which is the main benchmark for wholesale nitrogen-based fertilizer coming into the US. Midwest or Corn Belt urea is the retail equivalent, or basically what farmers pay once you factor in the additional cost of transportation and storage (there’s that layering effect again).
…
The key thing is that we’re still pretty early in this process. We started with oil (which, per the BoA chart, is already showing up in higher costs for food companies). Rising fertilizer prices are now hitting farmers, and eventually those will translate into higher wholesale food prices which will (assuming higher costs are passed onto consumers) eventually land at grocery stores too. The inflationary impulse doesn’t arrive all at once, it builds.
Source: Bloomberg
I hope this isn’t upsetting Mr. Market.
What, Mr Market Worry?
Let’s take a trip through the magic mirror with CNBC:
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite finished at record levels on Wednesday after President Donald Trump extended the U.S. ceasefire with Iran, while upbeat earnings reports also lifted sentiment.
The broad market index added 1.05% to finish at 7,137.90, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 1.64% to settle at 24,657.57. The latter had hit a new all-time intraday high in the session. The S&P 500 had erased all of its Iran war losses last week. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 340.65 points, or 0.69%, to end the day at 49,490.03.
Shortly after Tuesday’s close, Trump extended a two-week U.S. ceasefire, saying it was warranted due to Tehran’s “seriously fractured” government.
They then spend six paragraphs quoting Trump Truth Social posts and discussing the not-happening peace talks, I’ll spare you all that but the rest is plenty um, interesting
But with the Nasdaq trading at all-time high levels, Ben Fulton of WEBs Investments believes investors are officially starting to look past the developments in the Middle East. Indeed, U.S. equities are going to be able to more easily move higher than international markets from here on out, especially given the expected tail wind from earnings, he said.
“A week ago, I said, ‘The risk was on the upside.’ The market moves so much that now I look and go, ‘No, the risk is on the downside,’” the firm’s CEO said in an interview. “It’s time to put it in the rearview mirror. They got to stay the course.”
This nonsense is so palpable that the NYT does some finger wagging and attempts to explain WTF:
The stock market has been trying to ignore the war in Iran. That’s been true over weeks of escalation and de-escalation, cease-fires, a blockade, and a blockade of a blockade (now just a U.S. blockade). Markets have barely flinched, even as crude oil prices swing wildly each day and the world’s supply chains begin to shake.
The word to describe what is happening is “shrug.” The problem is not a lack of information. There is too much information, arriving in late-night social media posts and endless push notifications. These days when I see “Breaking News,” it feels like there’s an emphasis on “breaking,” in the sense of “Things are broken.”
The stock market has decided this available information is not relevant. That is a problem for all of us. President Trump deeply cares about the stock market, and if the stock market had been selling off, there is a good chance that this war would have been over a while ago. More broadly, the markets are showing the single lesson that the past 40 years have taught them.
It will always be saved.
Markets are not properly pricing risk, because they really don’t have to. They have assumed that the U.S. government will not allow them to implode, and that assumption is putting the world economy at stake. What’s more, the new rescuer investors are counting on — artificial intelligence — is vulnerable to the exact risks markets are ignoring.
This has huge consequences.
Veteran Democratic operative Roger Alan Stone (not to be confused with the infamous GOP operative) considers an additional factor:
The Trump stock market seems to defy comprehension. I’m not the only one who’s noticed that it’s completely untethered from the reality of the economy. Consumer sentiment is at an all-time low. The S&P 500 is at an all-time high. The market gets pushed up by Trump statements about the war that no rational human being would believe. Every day I expect the crash that brings this house of cards down.
…
It’s the Algorithms, Stupid. Or It’s the Stupid Algorithms.
An offhand comment the other night by an MSNow commentator gives us the first insight. He mentioned that a lot of trading isn’t being done by humans but by algorithms that search the news and what’s trending on the web for clues about how the market will move the next day.
So when Trump Truths that the war with Iran is over — they’re opening the strait and have agreed to all his terms and are becoming the 51st state — the algorithm doesn’t need to believe him. It just needs to see that true or not, this statement will move stocks up and oil down. With so much trading done by algorithms, each algorithm knows stocks will rise because the other algorithms will move them.
With 70% of daily trading done by algorithms, humans have become largely irrelevant to the stock market. So it isn’t people at all moving the market.
But what happens when the algorithm shows that all the algorithms say sell instead of buy and foreign investors have lost their interest in buying Treasuries.
Look out below.
Indeed, in the meantime, we can all share the Wile E. Coyote midair moment.
Let’s check in on the antics of the Mad King real quick:
Trump negotiating the release of eight AI-generated Iranian women with himself on his private social media site has to be a new low in the history of relations between different factions of the Human species. https://t.co/fMBHXVvue8
— Armchair Warlord (@ArmchairW) April 23, 2026
I’ll close with the latest Lego Iranian agit-prop video “We Love Americans”:
NEW IRAN LEGO VIDEO: “We love Americans. We’re not your enemy, we’re prisoners of the same cause.” pic.twitter.com/WVMvElVDep
— Stew Peters (@realstewpeters) April 22, 2026
Stay safe, y’all!
