The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its economic growth forecasts for several major countries, suggesting a mixed outlook for the global economy in 2024. Growth forecasts for the US, Brazil and the UK have improved, while those for China and Japan have improved. And the eurozone was downgraded.
The IMF now expects the U.S. economy to grow 2.8% in 2024, slightly more than previously expected, adjusted for higher consumer spending due to higher wages and asset prices. The outlook for the United States in 2025 was also raised to 2.2%. Brazil’s 2024 growth forecast has increased significantly to 3.0% thanks to strong consumer spending and investment.
Meanwhile, China’s growth rate in 2024 has slowed to 4.8%, with challenges in the real estate sector and consumer confidence clouding the outlook. The euro zone’s 2024 outlook has been cut slightly to 0.8%, with Germany’s growth expected to drop to zero due to manufacturing woes. Japan’s growth forecast for 2024 has been revised downward to 0.3% to reflect continued supply chain disruptions.
In contrast, India continues to perform well, maintaining its position as the fastest-growing major economy, with steady growth of 7.0% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025. The UK’s 2024 forecast has been revised upward by the IMF to 1.1%. He cited lower inflation rates and lower interest rates as the main factors supporting consumer demand.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Grinchat highlighted the resilience of the United States, India and Brazil, pointing to a “soft landing” in which inflation cools without significant job losses. However, Grinchas also expressed concern that if central banks do not adjust interest rates in response to falling inflation, monetary policy could become too tight, potentially hurting growth and employment.
The World Financial Institution’s report, in preparation for the IMF and World Bank’s annual meetings in Washington this week, predicts that global GDP growth will remain flat at 3.2% by 2024 and slightly rise to 3.2% in 2025. It is predicted that it will decline. The IMF expects global economic growth to slow to 3.1% after 2018, below pre-pandemic trends.
The IMF warned of several risks to the economic outlook, including armed conflict, new trade wars, and the continued impact of tight monetary policy. He also warned against protectionist industrial policies and instead advocated domestic reforms that foster technology, innovation and competition to foster sustainable growth.
Trade tensions remain a concern, with the IMF outlining a hypothetical scenario in which global GDP could contract by 0.8% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026 if significant tariffs were imposed between major countries. I am doing it.
Although the report did not specifically mention the tariffs proposed by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, it modeled the impact that widespread tariff increases and lower immigration would have on the global economy. Further risks include the potential for higher commodity prices due to conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
Reuters contributed to this article.
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