New population estimates from the Census Bureau released in May show Americans are leaving large coastal cities and moving to mid-rise Sunbelt suburbs. Brokers and real estate agents across the country say the data is consistent with what they’ve seen over the past few years.
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Mid-tier suburbs in markets like Raleigh, North Carolina, and Dallas are growing faster than central cities. Meanwhile, in the Northeast (New York City and urban areas across the region), population is flat to declining as inventories remain tight.
Suburbs have long been the mainstream for home purchases in the United States, and that hasn’t changed. According to the National Association of Realtors’ 2025 Home Buyer and Seller Profile, 44% of buyers purchased in a suburb or subdivision between July 2024 and June 2025, and an additional 24% chose a small town. Just 14% of purchases were made in urban or central cities, down from 16% the previous year, which was the highest percentage in urban areas since 2014.
The pandemic temporarily changed where Americans buy homes. By 2022, the suburbs will account for less than 40 percent of purchases, as buyers skip the suburbs entirely for small towns and rural areas, seeking the space and freedom suddenly available with full-time remote work. However, 2022 has proven to be an abnormal situation. The share of suburban home purchases jumped the following year, but is now below its 2017 peak of 51%.
According to real estate agents Inman spoke with, the common thread for all moves and purchases in 2026, whether in the suburbs, exurbs, small towns or rural areas, is not necessarily lifestyle preferences, but monthly payment calculations.
Financing favors “suburbs”
Cody Scheidboer, president and CEO of Best Interest Financial, a Michigan-based mortgage brokerage, made this statement. A buyer who can afford a $380,000 to $420,000 home in Celina, Texas, or Anna, Texas (a suburb north of Dallas) may only be able to afford a $280,000 to $300,000 home in central Dallas for the same income. This is due to how debt-to-income limits affect house prices.
“The issue is about house prices and debt-to-income ratio limits set by banks, not about salaries,” Scheiteboer said. “People may be willing to accept a longer commute when it comes to larger areas, newer buildings, and the same mortgage payment each month.”
Remote work makes that deal even better. Buyers who are stationed in a downtown office two days a week instead of five can absorb long commutes at a fraction of the cost. Those buyers can then use salaries tied to more expensive cities to buy homes in cheaper markets.
Scheiteboer said this dynamic is one of the clearest structural forces driving census patterns, and he expects it to continue for at least the next 24 months unless there is a significant adjustment in Sunbelt home prices.
buy in the suburbs
Ryan Fitzgerald, owner of Raleigh Realty in North Carolina, said the Raleigh Metro is living its story in real time. Suburbs that would have been considered too far five years ago – Fuquay-Varina, Clayton, Garner and Wendell – are now attracting serious buyer interest from remote and hybrid workers, primarily from the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
“They figured out they could sell a two-bedroom condo in Northern Virginia or New Jersey for the price they could buy a four-bedroom home in one of the suburban communities around Raleigh, and still have a lot of money left over to put in their bank account after the purchase,” Fitzgerald said.
The buyer profile has also changed. Mr Fitzgerald said panic offers and waived contingency fees were gone for 2021, but affordable properties in attractive suburbs were still quickly going into contract. Prices remain stable even as interest rates rise because there is a shortage of inventory relative to demand. Raleigh-area builders are moving quickly, but not fast enough, he said.
Reynaldo Gonzalez, founder and broker at Investteam Realty in South Florida, a team of more than 120 agents who complete more than 400 transactions a year in Miami-Dade and Broward counties, said the same dynamic is playing out in his market.
Gonzalez noted that Doral offers a significant price advantage over Coral Gables. In Coral Gables, he noted, the median price for a single-family home is between $1.9 million and $2.3 million in 2025, while Doral’s median price is closer to $590,000, and the difference can be more than 60 percent depending on the specific properties you compare.
The discount is narrower versus wider Miami. Located 21 miles west of downtown Miami, Doral is home to new construction, a highly rated charter school, and an established logistics hub due to its proximity to Miami International Airport.
“Buyers who are relocating are not leaving the area,” Gonzalez said. “They’re moving laterally to find better value.”
New York City’s population is declining, but demand is not.
New York City is a remarkable rebuttal to the narrative of slowing demand simply due to population.
Jacob Wood, a broker at Coldwell Banker Warburg, said New York City’s population is recovering from its pandemic lows and is still below 2020 levels, at about 8.58 million people, but demand for housing is stronger than ever.
Household and unit mismatches are more important than raw head count. Changes in living conditions and work-from-home space requirements during the coronavirus era have increased the number of households even as the population has declined.
“We need to build more,” Wood said. “Although the population has declined slightly, the number of households has increased, and housing construction has not been able to keep pace.”
Maria Korepenos, also at Coldwell Banker Warburg, added that New York City’s market is buffered by demand forces that aren’t evident in national demographic data, such as international students, international workers and part-time residents seeking a foothold in the city. Affordable apartments are still moving quickly, she says.
Jonathan Ayala, a licensed agent at Compass who focuses on New Jersey’s condominium market, which borders New York City, said buyers who previously targeted Manhattan are increasingly landing in Hoboken and Jersey City.
Choosing financing rather than lifestyle
The bigger structural question for real estate agents operating in growing suburbs is whether local governments and builders can keep up. Fitzgerald said suburbs in the Raleigh, N.C., area that have implemented zoning reform, infrastructure investments and streamlined permitting are handling growth better than areas whose alignment is broken.
He also noted that builders in high-growth markets are changing their product mix. There are fewer run-of-the-mill subdivisions and more communities with amenity cores, greenways, and mixed-use elements designed to offer suburban value with urban character.
Mr. Scheidboer presented his views from the financing side. Affordability calculations still favor mid-tier Sunbelt and suburban markets over the Northeast, he said.
But the Sunbelt’s reputation for affordable housing is complicated by the region’s current rapid fragmentation. Coastal Florida cities like Miami and major Texas hubs like Austin have matched or exceeded the national average due to years of out-of-state demand. However, many mid-sized cities in the South continue to provide housing well below that standard.
The U.S. housing market is split along supply lines, according to the March S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index.
Sunbelt and Western cities like Dallas, Phoenix, Tampa and Seattle have seen year-over-year price declines, while inventory-constrained Northeast and Midwest markets such as Chicago (up 6.09%) and New York (up 4.02%) are driving national growth. Nationally, house prices rose by just 0.67% year-on-year, remaining roughly flat in real terms, reflecting a market defined more by regional differences than by broader momentum.
Sunbelt still offers relative value in many markets. It’s just that it’s no longer offered everywhere. Therefore, the trick for home buyers is finding the best deal in this fragmented market, which is usually far from city centers.
“When buyers move to the suburbs of Celina, Texas or Charlotte, they’re not primarily looking for lifestyle,” Scheiteboer said. “It’s a loan.”
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