Although the volatile homebuyer clientele has stabilized, agents now see a tougher path to revenue growth than in February.
After a slow start to the spring housing market, it appears to have found its footing, according to several key indicators.
Pending sales increased in April. The number of mortgage loan applications increased in May. And real estate agents have told Intel in recent days that some of their buyer clients, once spooked by rising interest rates and gas prices, are coming back to the negotiating table.
But in their view, the damage has already been done.
According to the latest results from the Inman Intel Index survey, agents’ sentiment regarding their business prospects for the year ahead continued to deteriorate at the end of May, even though agents’ current customer pool has stabilized significantly.
These developments pushed Intel’s Client Pipeline Tracker metric to its lowest level since November.
May Client Pipeline Tracker Score: -0.5
Previous high: +13 in January 12 months ago: +2 in May 2025
daniel houston charts
These competing influences have once again pushed the securities industry into a downturn, but it is neither getting worse nor progressing as quickly as once hoped.
Read a complete breakdown of the four components of the score in this week’s report.
too little, too late
Our Client Pipeline Tracker summarizes how agents feel about their buyer and seller pipeline over the past year and in the near future.
Intel explained the methodology in this post, but here’s a quick refresher on how to interpret the scores.
A score of 0 represents a neutral period in which the client pipeline is neither improving nor deteriorating. A positive score reflects a market where client pipelines are improving or are widely expected to improve within the next 12 months. The higher the rating, the more confident the agent is that things are progressing in the right direction. A negative score indicates that the client’s pipeline situation is deteriorating or is widely expected to deteriorate further next year.
A significantly positive total score falls around the +20 mark. This type of score means that much of the industry agrees that the pipeline is improving and will continue to improve.
On the other hand, a significantly negative total score is closer to -20. This is slightly lower than where the industry was in September 2023, when Intel first surveyed distributors about its pipeline.
Results as high as +50 or as low as -50 can be observed for each of the four separate components included in the score.
Below are the component scores for the latest survey and how each sentiment category has changed since the last survey.
Tracker component score
April→May
Current buyer pipeline: -20 → -19 Future buyer pipeline: +9 → +3 Current seller pipeline: -5 → -6 Future seller pipeline: +13 → +8
Taking a closer look at the numbers that provide scores for these components, the first thing that stands out is how early signs that buyers may exit the market in the near term appear to have dissipated.
The percentage of agent respondents who said their buyer pipeline had deteriorated “significantly” in the past year fell to 14% in May. That same percentage rose to 21% in April from 15% in February, before the US and Israel attacked Iran and closed the Strait of Hormuz.
But the stabilization of the buyer-side pipeline appears to be cold comfort for many agents.
In May, just 27% of agency respondents said they expected the buyer pipeline to be healthier in a year’s time, down from 34% the previous month and 51% in January. Agents’ outlook on their future listing pipeline followed much the same pattern, dropping from 51% in the first month of the year to 33% in recent weeks.
This is a complete reassessment of what agents believe is possible in the year ahead. And, at least for now, it’s not primarily driven by short-term business prospects.
new landscape
It can be difficult to predict where things are going. But real estate agents and their clients now face a very different situation than they faced before spring.
Before the Iran war began, 30-year mortgage rates had fallen to 5.99%. Freddie Mac says it has now recovered to 6.53%. Consumer goods prices in February rose 2.4% compared to the same month last year. Through April, it rose 3.8% year-on-year, mainly due to higher gasoline prices.
Even if the Iran conflict ends with a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, there could be a lasting impact on prices as energy supply chains continue to function for months without access to one of the world’s most important trade gateways.
And as the effects spill over into other sectors, from food to plastics, policymakers are signaling they are more likely to consider raising rates again to nip a potential inflation cycle in the bud.
Whatever happened next, these developments ended up wiping out much of the affordability gains that the agency had hoped would lead to significant business growth.
Intel will continue to closely track client pipelines in the coming months.
Methodology note: This month’s Inman Intel Index survey was conducted May 19-28 and had 446 preliminary responses as of Thursday morning. The entire Inman reader community was invited to participate, and a rotating selection of randomly selected community members were encouraged to participate via email. Users answered a series of questions about their self-proclaimed niche in the real estate industry, including real estate agents, brokers, financiers, and proptech entrepreneurs. Results reflect the views of our passionate Inman community, but do not necessarily align with the views of the broader real estate industry. This survey is conducted monthly.
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