The spring 2026 housing market will not be the chaotic seller’s market that it has been in recent memory. It’s more complicated than that. Despite buyers having more influence in the market than in years, more deals are falling apart, real estate fraud is accelerating and half of prospective sellers are still locked into low-interest mortgages they don’t want to part with.
In a word: bizarre.
That’s the picture painted in HomeLight’s latest Top Agent Insights report, which surveyed 950 top real estate agents nationwide from April 7th to 14th.
The findings revealed a market defined by fragmentation. Some homes sell in a few days, while others don’t sell for months. Some regions favor sellers, but most regions favor buyers. And the gap between well-prepared and poorly prepared lists is rapidly widening.
Monthly payments are now a key decision-making factor
When you ask agents what buyers care most about, the answer is almost unanimous. It’s a monthly payment. 61% of agents surveyed said monthly payment affordability is now the number one factor buyers consider. This far outweighs the requirements for occupancy, the quality of schools, and the safety of commuting and neighborhoods.
“In this market, the winning home isn’t necessarily the most beautiful, it’s the one that makes the most economic sense,” said Kent Roderhaber, a top agent with Next Home serving Tampa and St. Paul. St. Petersburg region.
This shift reflects how rising interest rates, insurance premiums, and property taxes have thoroughly recalibrated buyer psychology. Buyers underwrite the purchase just like lenders do, paying full carrying costs before falling in love with a floor plan.
This calculus causes significant behavioral changes.
According to agent responses, Millennial and Gen Z buyers are adapting in three main ways. 29 percent are postponing their purchase and continuing to rent. 25% are moving away from city centres. and 15% rely on family members to help with the down payment. In the Pacific region, this last figure rises to 45 percent, three times the national average.
Multi-generational housing is also attracting attention. 60% of agents report an increase in demand for homes that can accommodate multiple generations under one roof, such as adult children or elderly parents living together. In the Pacific and Mountain regions, the numbers rise to 75% and 68%, respectively.
More and more deals are disappearing before they are completed
One of the most striking data points in the report: Agents say 9% of pending home sales have fallen through so far this year, higher than the 5% reported by the National Association of Realtors. This gap may seem small, but overall it means a significant increase in trading uncertainty.
Testing issues are the main cause. Foundation and structural issues, roof damage, mold and moisture issues are the most common deal breakers. These are all expensive repairs that buyers on a tight budget are increasingly reluctant to shoulder.
Unforeseen circumstances are compounding the problem. Home inspection contingencies are the most likely to derail a deal, cited by 41 percent of agents, followed closely by home sale contingencies at 38 percent.
“More sellers are not willing to make repairs or concessions, and buyers are also not willing to do it because the cost of repairs is going up,” said Carly Sablotny, a principal agent with Keller Williams in Cleveland. “Insurance is becoming more difficult due to stricter guidelines and testing.”
To stay in business, sellers rely on concessions. The most common is covering the buyer’s agent’s fees, cited by 57% of agents. Many sellers try to rack up concessions with a combination of commission protection, closing cost assistance, and repair credits to preserve deals that might otherwise fall apart.
Real estate fraud is becoming more sophisticated
Beyond normal transactional frictions, agents are sounding the alarm about a more serious threat. 63% report an increase in fraud, much of which is becoming harder to detect thanks to AI-powered impersonation and increasingly sophisticated communications.
According to the report, the five most common scams agents see are:
Seller impersonation. Scammers use fake IDs and stolen public records to pose as property owners, list homes they don’t own, and specifically target vacant lots and vacant lots. “Scammers are now using AI to imitate property owners and professionals,” said Matthew Gibbs, a top agent in Middletown, New York.
Transfer fraud. Cybercriminals compromise email threads involving agents, title companies, and financiers and insert fake transfer instructions at the most vulnerable moment of a transaction, just before it closes. “It looks like it’s legit – the same logo, similar email, correct name – but it’s not. And once that money is sent, it’s gone,” said Jennifer Hapke, a top agent at REMAX Forward in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Fake rental property. Scammers pull photos from current or past properties, re-advertise the properties as rentals, and collect deposits from out-of-area tenants who show up on move-in day to find the home occupied or unavailable.
Fake Zoom and Google Meet links. Scammers posing as buyers or sellers encourage listing agents (and sometimes home sellers) to click on malicious video call links designed to install malware or steal credentials.
Deed and title fraud. Forged signatures and fake IDs are used to fraudulently transfer ownership of real estate (usually vacant lots, rental homes, vacation homes, etc.), allowing fraudsters to sell them and walk away with the proceeds. Both the true owner and the unsuspecting purchaser are left as victims.
The common thread, says Amanda Stanford, a San Antonio agent with 30 years of experience, is that “all scams rely on urgency, emotion, and confusion. Most people lose money not because they’re careless. They lose money because the scam looks just like a normal transaction, at the exact moment they’re least likely to question it.”
Here’s her advice: “Trust the process, not the message. Take your time and call your trusted partner or agent to confirm everything.”
Buyer has an advantage, except when
On a national level, 41 percent of agents say buyers currently have more negotiating power. This marks a clear shift from the seller-dominated market of recent years, with fewer agents reporting a seller advantage today.
Two regional exceptions stand out. The Midwest and the Northeast. In these regions, sellers continue to hold greater bargaining power. While its dominance has weakened somewhat in the Midwest over the past year, it remains relatively strong in the Northeast.
The overall shift towards buyer leverage can be seen in the market day and markdown data. According to the National Association of Realtors, real estate agents report that properties spend an average of 54 days on the market, up from 51 days during the same period in 2025 and 45 days in 2024. Additionally, 82% of agents say they’ve seen price reductions on at least some of their listings in the past 90 days.
However, the market is fragmented. Move-in-ready homes are still selling fast, with 84 percent of agents saying turnkey features like new paint and updated kitchens and bathrooms help sell a home. The gap between well-provisioned homes and those that are poorly priced and conditioned is widening, creating a two-speed market that is disorienting for both buyers and sellers who expect uniform conditions.
Inventories are increasing but unevenly
While 55% of agents are reporting an increase in inventory in the market, it’s actually less than the increase in inventory reported a year ago, and more agents are now experiencing inventory declines in their territories. The national situation masks important regional differences.
Homes are selling much faster in the Midwest and Northeast. Sales schedules are significantly longer in the southern and mountainous regions. According to one report, homes in Austin sit on the market for an average of 108 days in February.
Lock-in effects remain the dominant force constraining supply. The agency estimates that 49% of homeowners looking to move are actively delaying selling to avoid lower mortgage rates. High prices and economic uncertainty are secondary factors.
Still, life intervenes. When it comes to sellers listing, the top reason cited by 44 percent of agents is relocation for lifestyle reasons such as family, climate or cost of living. Nationally, downsizing is followed by upsizing and financial needs, but the order varies by region. The data suggests that most sellers today are moving out of necessity rather than market timing.
When selling, most people use that equity to lower the monthly costs of their next home. 47% are using the proceeds to pay for a larger down payment on their next home. 19% are buying their next home with cash. 15% are downsizing their operations and keeping the rest of their revenue.
What agents are looking forward to for the rest of 2026
Opinions among distributors are widely divided on price, but they place emphasis on stability. 44% expect prices to remain stable for the remainder of this year, 37% expect prices to rise at a slower pace and 18% expect prices to fall. The Midwest and Northeast are trending toward higher prices, while the Mountains and Pacific regions are trending toward flat prices.
Perhaps the most interesting forward-looking finding is that agents are warning that even small changes in interest rates can quickly drive buyers away. Pent-up demand means that a significant drop in interest rates can cause sudden competition and multiple offers, causing an acceleration in sales even after a long period of weak sales.
“If rates are lowered even a little bit, there will be a rush of buyers, more competition, and sellers who have waited too long may realize they missed their chance to stand out,” said Daniel Padilla, a top agent in Colorado Springs.
For sellers, the strategic implications are clear.
“Today’s sellers don’t win by aiming high; they win by doing the right thing,” said Los Angeles agent Anthony Getzoan. “If you price it right and present it right, you control the outcome. If you miss that moment, the market controls you.”
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