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Existing home sales fell 3.6% in March to an annualized rate of 3.98 million units, down 1% year over year, despite the median price hitting a record high of $408,800 and the 33rd straight month of increases, according to NAR. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, blamed weak sales on weak consumer confidence, slowing job growth and an inventory of 1.36 million homes, equivalent to 4.1 months of supply, below historical norms. Yun points out that an additional 300,000 to 500,000 homes are needed to normalize the market and ease pressure on buyers. The typical homeowner gained $128,100 in home equity over six years. NAR lowered its 2026 home sales forecast to 4% growth due to rising mortgage rates, currently averaging 6.18% in March, but prices are still expected to rise 4% as inventory increases are kept to a minimum.
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NAR’s latest existing home sales report shows that although sales declined in every region of the country in March, the median existing home price rose to a record high for the month, marking the 33rd straight month of year-over-year increases.
Although existing home sales decreased in every region of the country in March, home prices hit record highs.
This contradiction is at the heart of the National Association of Realtors’ March Existing Home Sales Report. Sales fell 3.6% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.98 million units, a 1% year-over-year decline, while the median existing home price rose to $408,800, a record high for March and the 33rd consecutive month of year-over-year increases.
“Home sales continued to be weak in March, falling below last year’s pace,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Weak consumer confidence and slowing job growth continue to weigh on buyers.”
Lawrence Yun | Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors
The driving force behind both trends is the same: inventory. With just 1.36 million homes on the market and a supply of 4.1 months, competition for available properties has kept prices rising even as buyer demand has slowed. Yun said the market is still well short of the level needed to function properly.
“The inventory-to-sales ratio, or the ratio of supply and demand, is below historical norms,” Yun said. “Once another 300,000 to 500,000 homes are sold, the market will return to normal conditions and consumers will be able to make purchasing decisions without rushing.”
Price records are not independent data points. This is the result of years of cumulative supply constraints. Yun noted that the typical homeowner has accumulated $128,100 in home equity over the past six years, and that this wealth is built on the same scarcity that is keeping buyers out.
“Median home prices rose to record highs in March as inventory remains limited,” Yun said. “This price increase has allowed the typical homeowner to accumulate $128,100 in home equity over the past six years.”
In response to market trends, NAR has revised its 2026 forecast. Existing home sales are expected to increase by 4% this year, a slight downward revision from the previous forecast. New home sales were previously expected to increase by 5%, but are now expected to be flat. The median price forecast remains unchanged, with prices still expected to rise by 4%.
“Due to the rise in mortgage interest rates, we have decided to downwardly revise our home sales forecast for this year,” Yun said. “Even with sales growth at a slower pace, home prices continue to rise steadily as inventory increases are kept to a minimum.”
The average interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.18% in March from 6.05% in February, according to Freddie Mac.
The Northeast absorbed the steepest decline. Sales in the region were down 8.5% month over month and 12.2% year over year, with a median price of $494,500, up 5.7% from March 2025. Only two regions, the South and West, saw sales increase compared to the previous year. The Western region also stood out in terms of price, with a median price of $613,400, down 1.3% year-over-year, making it the only region to record year-over-year price declines, even though sales were stronger than the rest of the country.
Buyer demographic data reflects who is finding their way into the market and who is not. First-time buyers accounted for 32% of sales in March, down from 34% in February. Investors and second home buyers accounted for 18% of transactions, up from 16% the previous month. Cash sales fell to 27% from 31% in February.
The median time properties were on the market in March was 41 days, down from 47 days in February but up from 36 days in March 2025.
Affordability improved year-on-year in all four regions, even though prices rose due to higher mortgage rates a year ago. The West recorded the highest affordability growth at 12.7 percent, followed by the South at 10 percent.
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