Rhetoric or reality?
President Trump has given no details on how his proposed “whole-of-government” effort to deport up to 20 million people, far more than those in the country illegally, would work, but he has called it a “whole-of-government” effort to deport up to 20 million people, far more than those in the country illegally. It is placed at the center of related advertising. Republican candidates argue that mass deportation would free up housing for Americans and lower prices, but few economists agree. The idea has also been met with skepticism from a logistical standpoint, with some analysts saying the cost would be “astronomical.”
There are also growing doubts among home builders that President Trump will fulfill his promise.
You won’t be able to recruit people to build houses because you’ll lose so many people.
Stan Marek, CEO of Marek Family Company
“They don’t think it’s going to happen,” said Stan Marek, CEO of Texas-based specialty subcontractor Marek Family of Companies. “We won’t be able to get the staff to build the homes because we’re going to lose so many people.”
“The idea that we could actually move that many people out of the country is almost laughable,” said Brian Dunn, senior vice president of Arizona-based Big D Construction, a large Southwest firm. He said the proposal has industry players “trying to understand the extent to which it is stirring up political fear.”
But while Mr. Trump has a history of floating outlandish ideas without seriously pursuing them, such as buying Greenland, he has a history of resetting the terms of political debate despite fierce criticism and lawsuits. has also embraced other policies that were radical. This is especially true on immigration, where the administration has diverted Pentagon funds to build a border wall, banned travel from several Muslim-majority countries, and separated migrant children from their parents.
President Trump has used racist rhetoric, emphasizing deportation pitches on stumps and at times claiming that thousands of immigrants commit murder because it’s “in their genes.” It is expanding. This month, he accused immigrant gangs of “invading and conquering” cities such as Aurora, Colorado, a charge he denied, saying local authorities needed federal help but didn’t want to engage in mass deportations. are. Still, recent polls have found widespread support for deporting people who entered the United States illegally.
“President Trump’s mass deportation of illegal immigrants will not only make our communities safer, but will also protect the American people in the years to come,” Republican National Committee campaign spokesperson Taylor Rogers said in a statement. They will no longer have to pay for it,” he said, referring to illegal immigrants staying in the country illegally. Access to taxpayer-funded social services and other federal programs.
Trump campaign spokeswoman Caroline Levitt said in a statement that the former president’s comments about genetics “clearly point to murderers, not immigrants.”
Tobin said NAHB has great concerns about the deportation proposal, but is working on both movements. The government is calling on policymakers to “let builders build” by easing zoning and other regulatory hurdles and improving developers’ access to financing.
We need to have a serious conversation about immigration policy and reform in this country, and we cannot delay it any longer.
Jim Tobin, CEO, National Association of Home Builders
“Rhetoric on immigration is at the 11th hour,” Tobin said. “We need to have a serious conversation about immigration policy and reform in this country, and we cannot delay it any longer.”
Malek, who has long advocated for more ways for undocumented immigrants to legally work in the construction industry, said reforms are decades overdue. Even though the industry’s thirst for low-wage labor has created a shadow economy and dependent undocumented workers are often exploited, as an employer “I want to make sure everyone is legal. “We are doing our best to help,” he said.
“We need them. They’re building our homes – and have been for 30 years,” he said. “The loss of our workers will devastate our companies, our industries, and our economies.”
“The math isn’t there.”
There is evidence that foreign-born construction workers are contributing to suppressing the housing market. An analysis published in December 2022 by the George W. Bush Institute and Southern Methodist University found that U.S. metropolitan areas with the fastest growing immigrant populations have the lowest construction costs.
“Immigrant construction workers in Sunbelt metropolitan areas such as Raleigh, Nashville, Houston, and San Antonio continue to struggle with the housing cost advantages these cities have over coastal cities, despite rapid growth in demand for housing. ”, the authors write.
Construction workers work at a site in the Tampa, Florida area on Friday. Bob Croslin of NBC News
However, construction companies currently need more workers. Ron Hetrick, senior labor economist at workforce analysis firm Rightcast, said it would be “incalculable” to withstand the blow from mass deportations. “It would be incredibly disruptive” and cause “a very significant hit to housing construction,” he said.
Private employers in the sector have increased hiring over the past decade, with employment levels now exceeding 8 million, an increase of more than 1 million since the pandemic, according to payroll processor ADP. But, as Hetrick pointed out, “the average high school student doesn’t want to go into this job,” and the existing workforce is aging, with the average home builder being 57 years old. be.
Hetrick said that even though many undocumented workers have been in the United States for more than 10 years, they are likely to flee ahead of national deportation. He predicts such policies will cause an exodus of people with legal powers.
“That’s exactly what happened in Florida,” he said.
The past as a prologue
Last year, the state’s Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, enacted a series of restrictions and penalties to discourage the hiring of undocumented workers. Videos on social media show many migrant workers leaving the state in a hurry even before the policy took effect, leaving some construction sites empty.
“These laws show they don’t understand what we’re doing,” says Luciano, a Mexican-born carpenter who has spent the past 10 years building homes throughout South Florida. .
The 40-year-old man, who has lived in the United States for more than 20 years but does not have legal immigration status, asked to be identified by name, saying, “There are no other people working in conditions like ours.” There won’t be anyone,” he said in Spanish. He said workers at the site often work 70-hour weeks in rain and heat because they “have time to get in, but not time to get out.”
Taylor said he recalled the panic among his fellow Florida contractors during the statewide crackdown, but reassured them, “Hey, just hold on for six months.” They keep coming back because there aren’t enough people to police it. ”
Although immigration policy affects his business, Taylor said, “I’m not one to vote for just one policy.” Bob Croslin of NBC News
Republican state Rep. Rick Ross, who voted in favor of the bill, later acknowledged that Florida was unprepared for the destabilization it would cause, saying the law was a “It’s not that bad,” he said, urging immigrant residents not to evacuate.
Some employees returned after realizing the policy was not strictly enforced, Taylor said, adding: “Certainly things are more normal now.”
Mr. DeSantis’ office did not respond to a request for comment.
Dunn was working in Tempe as an executive for a construction management company in 2010 when Arizona enacted the nation’s strictest immigration restrictions at the time. As the bill takes effect, “a lot of people move away and never come back,” he said.
By the time most of the law was overturned in 2012, “Arizona had a bad reputation” compared to other states that were “much more open and less onerous to go to work,” he said. spoke.
Dunn, a Democrat, said he “absolutely” supports Vice President Kamala Harris, but other construction industry executives appear to be more divided. Malek, a “lifelong Republican,” declined to say how he voted, but noted that “many Republicans did not vote for Trump.”
Taylor also praised President Trump’s ability to “get things done,” although he did not say which candidate he supported.
“There are many other economic issues that we fight every day that are unrelated to immigration reform,” he said. “I’m not one to vote for a single policy.”
