game odds
Note: All lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Moneyline: TCU -225; TTU+185
Spread: TCU -6
Total points: 66.5
TCU had a big road win last week, defeating Utah from a three-point deficit and improving to 2-5 on the season against the spread. Texas Tech entered this year as a 4.5-point favorite to win the championship after suffering a heartbreaking home loss to Baylor, dropping to 3-3-1 against the spread. The Frogs have underperformed as the expected championship favorite this season, with TCU not only being the heavy favorite three times this year, but failing to cover the 7.5-point favorite against Stanford and being the 16.5-point home favorite. The team suffered a huge upset and fell down the rankings. The UCF and SMU games are short favorites. Bookmakers appear to be backing the Horned Frogs, regardless of the general public’s support. The game opened with TCU as just a 4-point favorite, but it rose to 7 points and settled at 6 or 6.5 points, depending on the book. This move against TCU comes despite a reported 86% of public funds going to the underdog Red Raiders.
The over/under point total is down slightly from 67.5, but 67 doesn’t tend to be a significant number, with less than 1% of games falling under this number. Both teams are 4-3 in total points, both featuring explosive offenses and shaky defenses, but this rivalry game is a rocky affair with at least one team struggling to score points. Expect it to be a battle of sorts.
Player predictions
Note: Player predictions are taken from PrizePicks and are subject to change.
TCU
Josh Hoover, passing yards: 323.5
Jack Beck, receiving yards: 85.5
JP Richardson, receiving yards: 55.5
Savion Williams, receiving yards: 66.5
Texas Tech is second worst in the nation in passing yards, averaging over 303 per game, allowing over 500 to Abilene Christian, over 400 to Cincinnati, and last week to Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson. They are allowing 5 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Josh Hoover ranks fifth in the nation in passing yards per game. Looking at the surface-level numbers, it appears to be a huge game for TCU’s passing game, but these projections are significantly inflated from last week, so the flow of the game could make the Frogs particularly strong. If you are a strong home favorite, your final total could end up being less than this, which can often lead to your team running out the clock to secure a win… However, we know that’s a skill this particular offense has never demonstrated.
Texas Tech University
Behren Morton, passing yards: 264.5
Caleb Douglas, receiving yards: 59.5
Coy Eakin, receiving yards: 32.5
Josh Kelley, receiving yards: 76.5
Taj Brooks, rushing yards: 125.5
Taj Brooks is a horror movie villain with an endless bloodlust that slaughters innocent and helpless defenders. All you can do is hope you survive long enough to be in the sequel. While 125.5 seems like a ridiculous number, it’s hard to imagine Brooks being shut out similarly on Saturday, even considering TCU’s improved defense to slow Utah’s rushing attack. He is both an explosive big play creator and a play-by-play grinder. Both thunder and lightning. He has gained 126 yards. As for this TTU passing game, TCU didn’t have an opposing QB even come close to those numbers, and it’s not like they had a Hall of Fame cast throwing it at the other end, but that’s where TCU’s defense was strongest. . While it’s possible for any of those individual receivers to hit that yardage projection, Morton has only hit that mark once this season in a P4 opponent game, playing from far behind last week against Baylor. There is.
