Eve, here. I haven’t followed the story of the Azerbaijan airline crash closely, precisely because speculation has been so far ahead of information. But claims by Western officials that a Russian air defense missile shot down the plane have many trying to connect the dots.
What’s missing here is Qui Bono’s question of whether this was intentional…as some commentators are saying or at least hinting at.
Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst specializing in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the new Cold War. He holds a doctorate from MGIMO, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Originally published on his website
The Pandora’s box of speculation has already been opened by the US and Ukraine, so Russia needs to refrain from injecting its own speculation into the world discussion, even if it is a far more reasonable one. do not have.
CNN cited unnamed US officials as saying that Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243 crashed in Kazakhstan, heading from Baku to Grozny before suddenly veering off course towards the Caspian Sea, where Russian air defenses accidentally opened fire. It was reported that this may be the cause. . Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned people to refrain from speculation and wait until the investigation is complete, but the United States, which has an interest in shaping the narrative, apparently did not heed his advice.
In this case, after it was revealed that Ukraine had launched a long-range drone attack on Grozny around the time of the incident, the government said it wanted to absolve Ukraine of responsibility, but this did not allow Russian air defense forces to attack the aircraft. It is possible that the gun was accidentally fired at the shrapnel. The destroyed drone may have crashed instead. RT reported that preliminary investigations had hypothesized that a bird strike was the cause, but pockmarked footage of the crashed plane suggested speculation that something else happened.
Despite Peskov’s warnings against any speculation, the CNN report has gone viral and appears authoritative to some because it quotes anonymous US officials. This creates an atmosphere in which there is a need to raise objections. The sequence of events that unfolded suggests that indeed something happened in the sky on the way to Grozny, resulting in the plane suddenly veering off course towards the Caspian Sea, but footage from the aftermath of the crash shows that the plane This suggests that the aircraft may have been struck by debris from the drone. The impact of a direct hit from air defense.
Regardless of which explanation you consider more credible, the important thing is that both were caused by reckless Ukrainian drone attacks on Grozny, far from the special operations zone. This week’s attack is not the first and the reason the city was targeted is likely because these attacks sparked political unrest in the former separatist region, which could open up a so-called “second front” for fun. It probably has something to do with what Ukraine thinks is sexual. Russian attention and primary power.
The complementary objectives are intuitive from what Ukrainian government officials told CNN in the report. “Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny, but they failed to do so,” said Andrei Kovalenko, head of the Center for Counter-Disinformation, part of the National Security and Defense Council. In other words, these drone strikes were intended to force Russia to close its airspace or to intentionally create a dangerous environment that would lead to tragedy.
The indefinite closure of the entire southern airspace as a precautionary measure, citing the long range of Ukrainian drones, comes after the United States did the same earlier this month in response to mysterious drone sightings on the East Coast. It would have been an overreaction with objectively immeasurable financial costs. But precisely because Russia did not do so, Ukraine and its media allies will predictably claim that this was irresponsible after the fact, even though Kiev is responsible as described.
What Russia must do as soon as possible is to emphasize to the utmost how reckless it is for Ukraine to carry out drone strikes so far from special operations zones, let alone against civilian infrastructure such as local airports. The goal is to counter this new information warfare narrative by emphasizing as much as possible how reckless it is to do so. The Pandora’s box of speculation has already been opened by the US and Ukraine, so Russia needs to refrain from injecting its own speculation into the world discussion, even if it is a far more reasonable one. do not have.
