CNN —
Ten days before the US presidential election, an out-of-control war in the Middle East appears to have been averted for now, much to the relief of President Joe Biden’s aides in the White House and Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign team in Delaware.
“It doesn’t look like they’re hitting anything other than military targets. I hope this is the end of it,” Biden said early Saturday after receiving an update on Israel’s attack on Iran from an intelligence analyst.
Earlier this month, Iran fired a massive barrage of ballistic missiles toward Israel, raising concerns of large-scale and escalating retaliation that could target Iranian nuclear and oil facilities. Such a result was not a foreseen conclusion. Still, even if the worst-case scenario can be avoided in Biden’s mind, the larger knot of Middle East conflict remains as tightly knotted as ever.
A direct attack on Iranian soil would take the region to a new and more dangerous location, and the Iranian government is now considering its own response.
Biden and Harris participated in a call with their national security team on Saturday and were briefed on the latest developments in the region, the White House said.
“We remain committed to supporting Israel’s right to self-defense,” Harris told reporters shortly after the briefing. ”
Asked for a message to Iran, Harris said: “As the United States, we feel very strongly that Iran must stop its actions regarding the threat it poses to the region, and we will always defend Israel from any attack by Iran.” ” he said. Like that. ”
But beyond Iran’s actions, the region remains at a standstill.
Israel continues to expand its operations in Lebanon, which have killed hundreds of women and children and tested the patience of the United States, but so far there has been no significant de-escalation.
And while the Gaza conflict appears to be as close to an end as it was before Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death this month, Biden’s death has prompted renewed efforts to reach a hostage ceasefire. I expected it to move on.
That window of opportunity remains cracked, at least in the minds of top Western diplomats, and negotiations are scheduled to resume this week in Qatar.
However, few believe there will be any solution before the US presidential election on November 5th, and Biden and Harris’ inability to bring stability to the region is a major political liability. This means that
Even if a full-scale war is not currently breaking out between Iran and Israel, this is not the situation the United States was hoping to find just before Election Day.
American officials believe that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not feel much incentive to end the multi-pronged operation before the election.
And there is little doubt in their minds that Netanyahu considers former President Donald Trump, whom he called repeatedly in the weeks before election day, a close ally.
While campaigning in Michigan on Saturday, President Trump brought a group of imams to the stage after what he said was a private meeting behind the scenes.
“Michigan Muslim and Arab voters across the country want to see an end to endless wars and a return to peace in the Middle East, just as they did during the Donald J. Trump era. Have you ever?” Trump said. “They want strength in the Oval Office, in law and order, and in common sense.”
Biden, speaking before setting off on a rare campaign trail on Saturday, declared he was “not surprised” that Trump was in regular contact with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He acknowledged concerns that Republican candidates are not representing the United States in these conversations.
Harris has shown little evidence that she would adopt a different approach if elected. Asked by voters at a recent CNN town hall in Pennsylvania about how to “never again cause a Palestinian death from a bomb funded by U.S. taxpayers,” Harris again called for a truce in its infancy. He pointed to the agreement, but did not say where or how it would be successful. Biden failed.
But when asked by CNN’s Anderson Cooper what she would say to voters who won’t vote for her out of outrage over the Gaza regime’s response, she said — in short — that President Trump will only make things worse. said.
“Listen, I’m not denying the strong feelings people have. I don’t think there’s anyone who watched this video who didn’t have strong feelings about what happened,” Harris said. . “But I also know that many people who care about this issue also care about lowering food prices. I am also concerned that there is no U.S. president who praises the United States and is a fascist.
Those responses did little to persuade Arab American voters to support Harris, who gave little indication that she did not intend to act simply as an extension of the Biden administration on the issue. .
Abdullah Hammoud, the Democratic mayor of Dearborn, Michigan, a city with one of the highest concentrations of Arab Americans, refused this week to endorse any candidate and instead urged residents to “vote their moral conscience.” He encouraged them to do so.
“I am looking forward to President Biden finding candidates, particularly candidates from my own party, who are willing to deviate from the current course that has defeated us on the genocide in the Gaza Strip and the broader conflict that is currently taking place. No mention of Lebanon,” he told The Hill in an interview Wednesday.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s tour of the region this week has provided little clear evidence that Hamas intends to renew its demand for the hostages to be released or that Israel has expressed renewed interest in forging a deal. There wasn’t.
The main focus of his interest was planning for post-war Gaza, but steps to reach that day remain elusive.
Biden has been trying for months to pressure Netanyahu into a deal to end the fighting in Gaza, without success. In his mind, that could bring down temperatures across the region and bring about a widespread and transformative normalization across the Middle East.
He was rejected almost every time, resulting in great frustration and long silences between the two.
This pattern has created some uncertainty over the past few weeks, as Mr. Biden and his aides tried to determine how Israel would retaliate in response to Iran’s Oct. 1 ballistic missile attack.
Biden had initially signaled a different approach from April, when he urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to “score a victory” and forego the response after Israel successfully intercepted Iranian rockets and drones.
Biden aides said the scale of the ballistic missile attack was different and action was needed.
But in a series of notable and candid public comments, the president made it clear that he opposed attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities and recommended against attacking the country’s oil reserves.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on October 9, in his first telephone conversation in about two months, that despite pressure from some conservatives within his own government to strike at Iran’s weaknesses, the target was not in Israel’s sights. I reassured her that it wasn’t.
Even if Netanyahu has his own reasons for avoiding Iran’s most sensitive targets and has made it clear that his country’s decision-making is independent of Washington’s guidance, Biden’s advice may not be enough for his Israeli counterpart. This is a rare case in the past year.
“It was extensive. It was targeted. It was precise. It was against military targets across Iran. It was very carefully prepared in many ways. Again, , I think it was designed to be effective,” a senior US administration official said late Friday.
“As far as we are concerned, this should end direct exchanges between Israel and Iran,” the official continued.
Of course, whether that ultimately happens is an outcome entirely out of Biden’s hands.
This article has been updated with additional reporting.
CNN’s Betsy Klein and Samantha Waldenberg contributed to this report.
