After a year of weak home sales, Tampa Bay’s housing market could decline further in the coming months as consumers deal with damage from back-to-back hurricanes, the city’s housing market said. Real estate experts are watching.
Darryl Fairweather, chief economist at real estate firm Redfin, said that until recently, the Tampa Bay market had been relatively strong compared to other parts of the country. But high prices have finally put an end to the breakneck growth the region saw during the peak of the coronavirus pandemic.
Median single-family home prices in the Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater metropolitan areas fell 1.4% from the same month last year, according to September data from Greater Tampa Realtors. But over the past five years, its price has increased nearly 65%, from $248,000 to $408,990.
Home sales are down 17% year over year and 33% over the past five years.
“Florida is no longer the same deal it once was, especially with rising costs of insurance and property taxes,” Fairweather said. “So we don’t have a lot of out-of-state buyers.”
Damage from this hurricane season could give buyers from places like New York and California another reason not to settle here.
One of the biggest challenges for the market is the lack of available housing.
As of September, the Tampa Bay area had about a four-month supply of housing. In a normal market, this would take closer to six months.
Hurricanes Helen and Milton left so many homes uninhabitable that “we’re now experiencing even more severe inventory shortages,” said Craig, president and CEO of Century 21 Begins Enterprises.・Mr. Begins said.
Even sellers whose homes did not suffer major damage are considering listing their homes. Some fear it will be difficult to find a place to move. Some people, like local real estate investor Josh Streeter, worry about getting the best price for their property.
Mr. Streeter had been planning to sell two rental homes he owned in St. Petersburg. Now he is holding back.
The home is located in a floodplain, but there was no damage.
Still, “if someone hears they have to pay flood insurance right now…I don’t know how that’s going to affect their value,” Streeter said. “This storm will remain in people’s minds for a long time.”
Locally, storm-damaged homes are already listed for sale “as is” or “at land value.” In some cases, the property may be sold at a loss.
For example, take a look at 1843 Oregon Avenue, a four-bedroom, two-bathroom home in St. Petersburg’s Shore Acres neighborhood. The owner paid $511,000 in 2022. It was previously listed for sale in September, before the hurricane hit, with an asking price of $535,000. That list has been removed. It has now been back on the market for about two weeks, and the asking price is $385,000.
Streeter said this is the first time he’s hearing about off-market short sales since the 2008 housing market crash.
Doing a cash deal with an investor may be a good option for some homeowners who want to exit quickly. But Mr Begins said the market was full of unscrupulous traders making low-level offers.
Damaged homes are seen weeks after Hurricanes Milton and Helen devastated Shore Acres. [ LUIS SANTANA | Times ]
“Some people are so scared that they’ll accept anything,” he says. “We don’t want our customers to fall victim to that.”
Jennifer Zales, a real estate agent with Coldwell Banker who specializes in luxury waterfront properties, said she doesn’t think this storm season will cause a mass exodus from coastal areas. Instead, people will choose newer, high-rise housing and pay more for that peace of mind.
“The builders I work with already have a huge number of new construction requests,” she said.
Although there may be some disruption to the market in the coming months, Fairweather said it usually doesn’t take long for home sales to recover after a natural disaster.
In many cases, prices actually rise as cities work to rebuild.
The Tampa Bay Times analyzed real estate data for Lee County, which was affected by Hurricane Ian in 2022. By the following year, homes in areas with the highest flood insurance claims were selling for 9% more than those in areas with less damage.
Biggins’ advice to anyone considering selling is to hold off until you get more information from your insurance company.
Some homeowners may qualify for mortgage forgiveness. This allows you to temporarily defer payments until you resolve the issue.
“Within three months, consumers with damaged properties will know whether they can afford to build on lot one, whether they want to replace lot two, and whether they can afford to rebuild lot three. “Deaf,” he said.
