I had intended to set down an Iran war marker publicly today but Trump on CBS News got there first. I had told some contacts privately that if Trump did not make his threatened massive strikes over this upcoming weekend, he would not make them. The reasons include:
Dissent within the Trump inner circle on what to do next. The Wall Street Journal reported that there are three camps, only one of which, led by Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and CENTCOM’s Brad Cooper, favors kinetic escalation.1
Rising risk of a financial meltdown. Even though Mr. Market recovered his footing on Friday, if Trump were to launch a big conventional attack, the additional shock of a sudden oil price rise would increase the intensity of a securities selloff
Rising odds of stealth or even overt opposition in the Department of Defense. Even though Trump is still backing Hegseth, Axios reports that some insiders are calling for his head. And every company defends an embattled executive right up to his ouster.
The House reconvenes on Monday. Thomas Massie has promised to re-introduce his impeachment resolution against Hegseth as one of the very first items of new business. CNN and other outlets have reported that Massie now has the votes to secure its passage. Not only do traditional Republicans in the House see it as in their long-term interest to put some distance between themselves and Trump, but Hegseth’s arrogant performance in hearing earned him a lot of enemies, who are now freer to exact revenge with Trump bloodied.
Some experts say Hegseth will be out by end of November; others argue by year end. Either way, it is the incoming Senate that would take up any impeachment trial. It is hard to see how Hegseth survives that.
On top of that, with the Democrats soon to be in charge of all key military and oversight committees, they can and pretty surely would haul key military officials before them in investigations to ‘splain exactly how a decision to escalate majorly was made and implemented, and even more so if it did not go well.
That plays into what happens at the Department of Defense. Recall that the Pentagon refused to implement Trump’s order at the end of his first term to leave Afghanistan. The anti-Iran war vote and Hegseth’s embattled status could produce bureaucratic sabotage, like slow-walking key measures.
Adequate narcissistic supply from Trump’s regular threats of Iran destruction followed by TACO. Military experts have commented that it is very hard on the armed forces, operationally and psychologically, to have Trump repeatedly get the troops in immediate attack mode, and even in at least one case, have a set go live time, only to pull back from the brink at the very last minute.
The fact that Trump has done this again and again says he is getting something out of it.
Trump may still fantasize that one of these repeated threat displays will finally cow Trump, particularly since he is almost certainly getting bogus intel about how, yessirree bob, Iran is on the verge of economic collapse.
But separate from Trump fantasies of Iran capitulation, fed by toadies on his staff, is that Trump has a desperate need to dominate, to see himself as the driver of events. Even if he has yet to dominate Iran, look at how many jump when he plays this game:
The media, particularly the US business press, runs big headlines about the latest Trump belligerent noises. Mr. Market may not hop to as crisply as he once did, but asset prices nevertheless respond
Gulf State leaders call to beg his to hold his fire. Recall how much pleasure Trump got during the tariff wars from foreign nations pleading for relief:
And a fresh display of Trump enjoying pushing powerful people around:
Based on Trump description (wife, with kids and executive of a big AI company) these are the only people who fit it:
– Jensen Huang (NVIDIA CEO)
– Mark Zuckerberg (Meta CEO)
– Sundar Pichai (Alphabet/Google CEO)
– Demis Hassabis (Google DeepMind chair/chief scientist)
— JustDario (@DarioCpx) November 9, 2026
Pakistan and Qatar run around trying to gin up yet another peace scheme that will go nowhere. This process has become so discredited in Iran that even the very measured Professor Marandi has taken to trash talking Qatar for not bringing anything useful, along with outlet like Al Arabiya and Aljazeera that routinely tell false tales of negotiation progress
The podcast/YouTube universe goes into overdrive
Add to those issues that more Administration bandwidth is already consumed by post-election cat fights, such as one reported on the front page of the Wall Street Journal, Former Trump Aides Feud Online, Trade Legal Threats in Bitter Election Fallout. This article covers a very visible social media row between former deputy chief of staff James Blair and and health adviser Calley Means:
[Susie] Wiles, Means said in the interview, set White House priorities based on what would encourage corporate donors to give to Republicans’ midterm election efforts—rather than policies that would promote healthy eating.
In one instance, Means said he recalled Wiles telling him: “I need the money from the sugar people to win the midterms” and “Calley, we can’t do this. I need sugar money.”
Means told the Journal that the conversation with Wiles happened in early June and concerned a letter Kennedy wanted to send regarding ultraprocessed food. Kennedy wanted to respond positively to a petition from former FDA commissioner David Kessler, who had asked the agency to declare certain refined carbohydrates unsafe….
The feud between Means and allies of Wiles, however, was particularly bitter, reverberating online and in television interviews through the weekend. Sen. Ron Johnson (R., Wis.), in an interview with Fox News, urged Americans to listen to Rogan’s podcast and hear what the senator called “the corruption that Calley Means lays out in gory detail in government, I’m sad to say within the Trump administration.”
California Democratic Rep. Robert Garcia, who is expected to become the next chairman of the House Oversight Committee, said he expected to investigate the allegations laid out by Means that White House aides favored corporate interests over Americans’ health.
This row made the lead story at the Financial Times:
The article begins with the recrimination from Johnson and focuses on intra-party rows:
A top Republican senator has lashed out at “corruption” within Donald Trump’s administration as recriminations mount within the president’s party following this week’s electoral wipeout….
“Our supporters were expecting us to drain the swamp, but it seems like the swamp won,” said Johnson, who has called for a Republican Senate leadership vote, scheduled for next week, to be delayed while the party carries out a postmortem on the midterms defeat.
He added that Means’s allegations were just the “tip of the iceberg”. “This is happening throughout government — agency after agency captured by the very entities, the big corporations, that are regulated by government. They capture these agencies and corrupt it.”
This situation will only get worse as the Democrats sharpen their knives in preparation for corruption investigations. Like Means, more insiders may go public with accounts. Some on the periphery of the Administration may resign. The more that leave, the more battered the Trump team looks, even if no core Iran war decision-makers defect.
And keep in mind, the Democrats have every reason to go full proctological in the new Congressional session. This enables them to engage in salacious, crowd-pleasing Doing Something while not addressing core issues that threaten donor rice bowls, from egregious health care costs to data center buildouts to unaffordable housing. One sign that the Democrats do not intend to challenge the power structure is the silence about releasing the Epstein files.2
So the Trump de-escalatory noises in his interview with CBS last night are no surprise. Key bits from the transcript:
Ross Douthat: Couple days ago your vice president, JD Vance, wrote a social media post where he says, “The reason we lost is the war,” meaning Iran. And he said things in that post–
President Donald Trump: I don’t disagree–…
Ross Douthat: So you’re not gonna escalate the war now that the midterms are over
President Donald Trump: Well, I’m not looking to. I don’t think there’s any reason to. I don’t think there’s any reason to. Look–
Ross Douthat: They still have nuclear material–
President Donald Trump: They have–
Ross Douthat: Right?
President Donald Trump: They have nothing. It’s buried under thousands of tons of rock.
Ross Douthat: So what’s the deal in the end with them–
President Donald Trump: The deal–
Ross Douthat: That gets–
President Donald Trump: The–
Ross Douthat: That gets the Strait open–
President Donald Trump: The deal–
Ross Douthat: ‘Cause it’s important– it’s important to stress–
President Donald Trump: No, no, the d–
Ross Douthat: ‘Cause–
President Donald Trump: The strait is open. We have ships–
Ross Douthat: But–
President Donald Trump: Going–
Ross Douthat: But the ships–
President Donald Trump: Through–
Ross Douthat: That are going through are being babysat by a large U.S. military presence. So how do we make a deal–
President Donald Trump: Not a very–
Ross Douthat: That gets that–
President Donald Trump: Not very expensive–
Ross Douthat: Presence out of there?
President Donald Trump: Not very expensive.
Ross Douthat: We can just leave–
President Donald Trump: And–
Ross Douthat: Them there–
President Donald Trump: At the end of–
Ross Douthat: Indefinitely?
President Donald Trump: This whole thing, those countries that we’ve protected are going to pay us back any and all costs that we’ve had for the war ’cause without us, they wouldn’t exist. Without us, Israel would not exist. Let me tell you
Ross Douthat: Israel —
President Donald Trump: Israel–
Ross Douthat: Tell me– tell me about–
President Donald Trump: Israel would not exist except for Donald Trump because we went in with those beautiful B2 Bombers more than a year ago, and we hit the three sites at– at the time.
Ross Douthat: But on Israel, do you have regrets about the decision to help the Israelis do decapitation strikes on Iran because that changed the Iranian regime, and it seems like it made them escalate. You could’ve just kept hitting the–
President Donald Trump: Well–
Ross Douthat: The nuclear facilities, right–
President Donald Trump: Yeah, you could’ve done that, but– we had people that w– would have gone further. We decapitated their nuclear arsenal. Look, I deal with these people. I deal with a lotta people, and that’s what I’ve done my whole life. I make deals. And obviously, I make good deals ’cause I beca– I made a lotta money and I became president. But– you know, it’s– that’s a deal too.
Now that does not mean Trump has given up. Remember, he has to be able to tell himself stories where he is the winner. So the fallback is that the fight is ongoing and that Trump is still driving events.
So Trump keeps pounding targets the US has hit before, here Qeshm Island. Not productive but it feeds the myth that the US can impose crippling damage on Iran:
The United States is now consistently carrying out strikes on Iran at Qeshm, Bandar-e-Jask, and Bandar Abbas on a near-daily basis.
The United States is effectively carrying out completely inconsequential operations against Iran and giving them an excuse to counter-escalate.
As of yet, Iran has restrained itself, but every American strike is another spin of the roulette wheel, and we have no control of when it lands on red.
— Brett Erickson (@BrettErickson28) November 8, 2026
Some contend that these strikes are clearing a path to bigger action:
The United States appears to be clearing the battlefield for a larger military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
In recent days, American forces have been systematically degrading the regime’s air-defence and missile belt along the Strait of Hormuz.
These are not isolated retaliatory strikes. They constitute a sustained shaping operation against surface-to-air missile batteries, associated radars, anti-ship systems and mobile launchers across Qeshm, Larak, Sirik, Jask and the southern Iranian coast.
President Trump confirmed that American forces recently destroyed a newly constructed Iranian anti-aircraft position on Qeshm Island within approximately five to 15 minutes. Similar explosions have been reported across the area for several consecutive nights.
In military terms, the United States is conducting suppression and destruction of enemy air defences, known as SEAD and DEAD, alongside counter-force operations against missile launchers.
The objective is to prevent the IRGC from rebuilding a coherent defensive and maritime-denial network around the Strait of Hormuz.
American forces are also reportedly expanding their use of decoy drones. These systems are not merely distractions. They are tools for dismantling the enemy’s electronic order of battle.
When a decoy enters defended airspace, Iranian radar operators face a choice. They can remain silent and allow an unidentified aircraft to approach, or activate their systems and attempt an interception.
Once a radar begins transmitting, American intelligence assets can identify its position, operating frequency, detection range, reaction time and engagement procedure. If the battery fires, it expends a scarce interceptor and reveals the location of its launcher.
That information immediately improves the American target bank.
Repeated probes therefore force the regime to choose between remaining blind or exposing its defences to destruction. Each night produces more electronic intelligence, consumes additional Iranian resources and reduces the number of surviving systems available for a future confrontation.
The geography is deliberate.
Qeshm and Larak overlook the shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. Sirik and Jask extend the regime’s surveillance, missile and naval reach into the Gulf of Oman. Systems positioned across this belt can threaten commercial shipping, American aircraft, naval vessels and regional bases.
A larger American campaign against missile-production facilities, IRGC command centres, nuclear-related infrastructure or deeper military targets would require relatively secure approach corridors.
Launching high-volume strike packages while the coastal integrated air-defence system remains intact would unnecessarily expose fighters, bombers, drones and cruise missiles to greater risk. It would also preserve the regime’s ability to retaliate against ships and disrupt the strait.
The current operation is reducing that risk before any decision on broader action is executed.
It is producing three essential military effects:
▪️ Physical degradation: Destroying launchers, radars and air-defence batteries before they can participate in a larger engagement.
▪️ Target development: Forcing surviving systems to reveal their locations and behaviour so they can be struck rapidly later.
▪️ Tempo control: Keeping the IRGC reactive while American tankers, carriers and strike assets maintain the initiative.
The timing is also significant. American restraint during the midterm election period has ended. Limited strikes are now continuing while additional capabilities move into the region and the administration evaluates larger options.
This does not prove that a major campaign has been ordered. Shaping operations can also be used to maintain deterrence and protect maritime movement without proceeding to full escalation.
But the military logic is unmistakable.
The United States is clearing the outer defensive layer, mapping what survives and keeping the southern threat envelope suppressed. If a larger campaign begins, the work required to open its air and maritime corridors is already underway.
— The Iran Watcher (@TheIranWatcher) November 8, 2026
Mind you, this is the most the US has seemed able to do in response to continuing Iran attacks on tankers.
Footage released by the IRGC shows the 3rd oil tanker on fire in the Strait of Hormoz https://t.co/dOnThI1rUV
— Arya Yadegaar (@AryJeayBackup) November 8, 2026
UKMTO reports a second tanker was struck last night in the Strait of Hormuz. (19h20 & 20h20 UTC) https://t.co/Zshyi2FWTe
— MenchOsint (@MenchOsint) November 8, 2026
Keep in mind that, as Larry Johnson in particular has stressed, Iran has escalated to seriously damaging and even destroying them. The global supply of VLCCs is finite and they are not quickly replaced. Iran is on its way to cutting into their numbers, which will further impede getting back to anything resembling the old normal.
Some are mystified by Mr. Market’s indifference, but that seems to be the result of misguided confidence that the midterm vote will force some sort of non-kinetic and pretty speedy resolution:
How TF is oil not even above $100 ?!!?!!?!? WE LITERALLY HAVE DAILY VISUAL EVIDENCE OF CRUDE OIL SUPPLY ON FIRE?!!??!?!
OIL SHOULD BE LIKE $170 RIGHT NOW ……. #OOTT
— Mista Indigo (@MistaIndigo) November 8, 2026
In light of that, the ludicrous CENTCOM Iron Gate scheme is another admission of weakness. Keep in mind, as the announcement below makes clear, this is vaporware. It’s a plan to set up a task force to make PowerPoint presentations:
https://t.co/xUcO520Enu
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) November 7, 2026
I did not read all of the 635 comments so far on Twitter. But I had to get to #44 before I found an approving on. A sampling:
@CENTCOM @AIPAC I just pumped gas this morning. I’m okay with Iran having a nuclear weapon.
— Big Baby Jesus (@bigbabyjesus25) November 7, 2026
@CENTCOM So a task force of about 20 civilian and military personnel are going to monitor an area the size of Western Europe that is over 11,000 km away. Meanwhile you people are literally offering 20 million for information on Iran’s nuclear program, because you have no idea where it is.
— Mike1010011 (@mike1010011) November 7, 2026
@CENTCOM So you’re trying to do with Iran what you did to Gaza… an open air prison where you control all of the borders. You people are truly fucking crazy.
— King Gwap (@KingxGwap) November 7, 2026
@CENTCOM Absolutely laughable.
We’ve had:
Operation Midnight Hammer
Operation Epic Fury
Project Freedom
Operation Economic Outcast
Yet, none of this has made any meaningful impact. Trump must abandon the war and leave the Middle East. It will be good for the US and the world.
— Dominic K. Obeng (@dom155rich1) November 7, 2026
@CENTCOM More crimes against humanity to add to the US military’s record. Truly a pox upon humanity.
— Bill Stearns 🍉 (@wmsts) November 7, 2026
@CENTCOM “illegal shipments”
You entire presence in the area is illegal.
— Browse Deweb (@BrowseDeweb) November 7, 2026
A very good analysis confirms that this scheme is na ga work, save perhaps to a degree in Iraq:
I reviewed 110 financial documents and reports of main Iranian land and sea transportation companies along with regional custom data. Here is what @CENTCOM new Task Force Iron Gate — announced today to squeeze Iran’s land borders and the Caspian — is actually up against.
Since April 2026, a U.S. naval blockade has shut Bandar Abbas and Chabahar, ports that handled roughly 163 million tons of cargo and about 80% of Iran’s trade.
But Iran has seven back doors: Iraq, Turkey, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Together they carried about $22 billion in trade in 2024–25 — $15.3B out, $6.8B in. Since the blockade, every one of these corridors shows traffic surging.
That is the gap Iron Gate has to close. A thread with the numbers, corridor by corridor. (1/10)
— Miad Maleki (@miadmaleki) November 7, 2026
The Iraq assessment:
(3/10) Iraq is the biggest back door and it isn’t close.
$8.9 billion in trade in 2024–25: $8.6B of Iranian exports against just $0.3B in imports. Iraq alone absorbs more than half of everything Iran exports over land.
It moves through ten border crossings — Khosravi, Shalamcheh, Mehran, Tamarchin and six more — mostly by truck, straight into Iraqi markets that run on Iranian goods, gas, and electricity.
This corridor is difficult to blockade: a 1,600-km land border, deep commercial integration, and political cover in Baghdad. If Task Force Iron Gate wants to cut Tehran’s single largest external revenue stream outside oil, this border is the target — and the hardest one on the map.
— Miad Maleki (@miadmaleki) November 7, 2026
Could this Iron Gate napkin doodle be meant to provide some cover for an attack via Iraq? Mind you, this isn’t the first time that idea has come up.
From BM TV:
As a diplomat-connected reader said:
The Iraqi prime Minister blurted out the US wanted to launch a ground invasion of Iran via Basra. He also threatened to arrest any Iraqis that aided Iran to which the majority Shia in the country essentially said try it and see what happens
Iran appears to have recognized the re-upping of the incursion-through-Iraq threat:
And some tidbits. Another US admission of weakness:
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who claimed many times that Iran is finished, has called China and ask them to use their influence over Iran to help bring an end to the war, WaPo reports.
He apparently got Trump’s approval https://t.co/zZoOKDPtc1
— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) November 8, 2026
Iran is not budging in its negotiation demands, and the US air-punches in response:
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiations with Iran had been “not very productive,” describing Tehran’s demands as “unacceptable, in some cases outrageous, and ridiculous.” https://t.co/aNwxvBGrOG
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) November 8, 2026
From Palestine Chronicle, US Taxpayers Take the Case to The Hague: Seeking Arrest Warrants for Trump, Rubio, and Enablers of Genocide. Unfortunately, this move will pour gas on the fire of the US efforts to dismantle the ICC:
On Wednesday, November 11, 2026, a delegation of US taxpayers and international human rights attorneys will arrive at the International Criminal Court in The Hague. They will hand-deliver evidence to the Office of the Prosecutor and call for arrest warrants against President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and other senior US officials for aiding and abetting Israel in the commission of genocide, war crimes, and crimes against humanity in Gaza.
The action is historic and unprecedented. US citizens, acting as taxpayers whose money has financed the weapons and the political cover, are placing the highest officials of their own government before the Court that was created to prosecute the gravest crimes when national systems refuse to act.
The submission rests on nearly a year of work by individuals and organizations now organized as the Taxpayer Alliance Against Genocide (TAAG). It includes sworn affidavits from doctors who worked in Gaza, firsthand eyewitness accounts, whistleblower testimony, videos, and extensive documentation of US political, military, diplomatic, and financial support. The delivery follows a federal court victory that protected TAAG’s First Amendment right to share that evidence with the Court, after the Trump administration had moved to block cooperation with the ICC through sanctions and executive order.
We are skipping over Eisenkot’s coalition sausage-making:
🇮🇱‼️🚨 EISENKOT: “ISRAEL NEEDS NEW LEADERSHIP”
Accepting the mandate for Israel’s leadership, Gadi Eisenkot said Israel is in a “fateful emergency” and invited every Knesset faction into a national emergency government. To join, a party must sign four principles:
1. Israel as a Jewish and democratic state
2. The values of the Declaration of Independence
3. Military, national or civilian service for all
4. Destroying Hamas’s military and governing power
He warned that anyone who torpedoes it “will be remembered in history.” https://t.co/DGZ2ckGlY9
— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) November 8, 2026
Ansar Allah did manage to hit the symbolically very important Aramco Tower, but damage does not appear to be that bad:
Another Angle of the Houthi strike on Aramco Tower in Riyadh .
Firefighters can be seen working , the damage seems to be not too big for a Ballistic missile though . https://t.co/1irJ3MJH5e
— Nightmare (@Nightshade00077) November 8, 2026
Done for today! Perhaps see you tomorrow! We may turn to other topics if all we get on the Iran/Saudi-Ansar Allah fronts is news churn.
____
1 From Trump’s Clashing Advisers Press Him to Make Iran War Decision:
President Trump’s advisers and foreign allies have been racing to shape his decision on whether to end the Iran war or reignite it.
Voters soundly repudiated the war at the ballot box, then Vice President JD Vance questioned whether it was worthwhile on social media. Before that post, Vance told the president that he intended to blame the defeat on the war, U.S. officials said.
Another camp, which includes Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper, have supported a return to major combat operations during recent briefings on military options, U.S. officials said. Several hawkish outside advisers have called Trump since Election Day to make the case that his legacy depends on forcing Iran to surrender its nuclear program, which would allow the president to boast the political sacrifice was worth the cost, U.S. officials and another source familiar said.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have advocated for tightening sanctions and continuing the blockade on Iranian trade. Special envoy Steve Witkoff, like Vance, has sought Trump’s continued backing for diplomatic efforts for a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, officials said. And other outside advisers have also called Trump with the message that it is time to end the war.
2 Former CIA officer John Kiriakou has effectively said they will never become public because they would expose the extent of loathsome and illegal behavior by the CIA, from drug-running to routine extra-legal assassinations to using prostitution, including of children, to get cooperation and/or leverage, to arms and sex trafficking. Kiriakou has been a bit more coded but the drift of his gist is clear.
