To say the least, this spring has not been as great as once hoped.
Real estate agents across the country confirmed in the latest Intel Index survey that the tough start to spring was not an anomaly, but rather continued throughout April and early May.
Intel’s Client Pipeline Tracker index hit its lowest level since November, when the government shutdown briefly spooked market trends as mortgage rates remained high amid negotiations between Iran and the U.S. over the Strait of Hormuz.
While overall agent sentiment remains neutral rather than negative, it is a marked contrast to the situation at the beginning of the year, when a stronger recovery was in sight.
April Client Pipeline Tracker Score: +3
Previous high: +13 in January 12 months ago: +1 in April 2025
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These numbers add depth and detail to a situation that has been more openly discussed among executives and financial analysts in recent weeks.
Read the full report to learn about the four factors included in the score and how real estate decision makers adjusted their predictions for 2026.
No rebound seen
Our Client Pipeline Tracker summarizes how agents feel about their buyer and seller pipeline over the past year and in the near future.
Intel explained the methodology in this post, but here’s a quick refresher on how to interpret the scores.
A score of 0 represents a neutral period in which the client pipeline is neither improving nor deteriorating. A positive score reflects a market where client pipelines are improving or are widely expected to improve within the next 12 months. The higher the rating, the more confident the agent is that things are progressing in the right direction. A negative score indicates that the client’s pipeline situation is deteriorating or is widely expected to deteriorate further next year.
A significantly positive total score falls around the +20 mark. This type of score means that much of the industry agrees that the pipeline is improving and will continue to improve.
On the other hand, a significantly negative total score is closer to -20. This is slightly lower than where the industry was in September 2023, when Intel first surveyed distributors about its pipeline.
Results as high as +50 or as low as -50 can be observed for each of the four separate components included in the score.
Below are the component scores for the latest survey and how each sentiment category has changed since the last survey.
Tracker component score
March→April
Current buyer pipeline: -18 → -20 Future buyer pipeline: +9 → +9 Current seller pipeline: -6 → -5 Future seller pipeline: +14 → +13
Most components confirm that the sharp decline in agent sentiment from February to March was not temporary.
In fact, while most categories remained largely stable, the current buyer pipeline situation may have worsened further in April, with a particularly notable increase in agents expressing strong pessimism.
The percentage of agency respondents who told Intel that their company’s pipeline had deteriorated “significantly” year over year rose from 13% in February to 17% in March. By April, this group reached 21% of agents surveyed.
There has also been a marked decline in optimism for the year ahead among Intel Index survey respondents.
The number of agents who said their buyer pipeline would grow over the next year fell from 49% in February to 36% in March, and settled at just under 34% in April.
The good news for agent commissions is that the number of listed clients appears to be relatively stable amid the uncertainty.
Still, agents are lowering their expectations that they will be able to find as many seller customers over the next year as they once hoped.
While 50% of agents surveyed in February said they expected the listing pipeline to grow even more in a year’s time, only 41% said the same in March. And that share remained unchanged in April, declining slightly to 40%.
And in recent public discussions with investors and financial analysts, real estate executives were very concerned about these trends.
Management’s statement
The Intel survey is not the only sign that agent sentiment has worsened in recent months.
Zillow Group Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Hoffman said on an earnings call last week that the decline in market-based pricing revenue was at least partially the result of a weaker outlook for agents in the first few months of the year. Trading levels were also relatively flat.
Who is the culprit? In January, destructive weather phenomena occur. Mortgage interest rates will rise in March and April.
“The excitement in the real estate industry going into this year, even if it’s calming down, will have an impact on real estate agent sentiment if deals ultimately don’t close,” Hoffman told investors on a conference call.
Some of the more detailed comments were made when homebuilder Lennar Corp. reported its earnings a few weeks ago.
CEO Stuart Miller told investors on an April earnings call that affordability continues to weigh on buyers, and uncertainty about the duration of the Iran war creates a risk for consumers of continued higher costs related to mortgages, gasoline and other consumer goods.
He also noted that some Americans are worried about job security in the jobs most disrupted by artificial intelligence.
“This uncertainty, compounded by already tight household budgets, is causing consumers to be hesitant to make big-ticket purchases, especially home purchases,” Miller said on a conference call. “Traffic has been fairly steady across the community, but the urgency of the deal is still being considered.”
Some executives no longer treat this as an isolated issue that will end if, say, the Iran war ends soon.
On Zillow’s conference call with investors last week, Hoffman said weak agent sentiment led to a downward revision to its outlook for the rest of the year.
“We have no expectations or plans for a recovery in volumes throughout the year,” Hoffman said.
Methodology note: This month’s Inman Intel Index survey was conducted from April 22nd to May 5th and received 435 responses. The entire Inman reader community was invited to participate, and a rotating selection of randomly selected community members were encouraged to participate via email. Users answered a series of questions about their self-proclaimed niche in the real estate industry, including real estate agents, brokers, financiers, and proptech entrepreneurs. Results reflect the views of our passionate Inman community, but do not necessarily align with the views of the broader real estate industry. This survey is conducted monthly.
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