Realtor.com’s new Market Clock highlights widening regional disparities and evolving local conditions, with more than 60 percent of the U.S. primary housing market shifting to buyers.
More than 60% of the nation’s largest housing markets have moved into balanced, or buyer-friendly territory, but only 26% remain seller-friendly, according to a new analysis from Realtor.com.
The data arrives at the same time as the launch of the Realtor.com Market Clock, a new tool aimed at cutting through the noise in the housing market and giving buyers, sellers and industry watchers a clearer, more forward-looking perspective on local conditions.
Realtor.com’s market clock currently pegs the national housing market at 3 p.m. This is an “equilibrium easing” phase that represents a gradual transition to buyer-friendly conditions, although not at an accelerating pace. But that national snapshot masks a much more fragmented reality across the nation’s largest metro, which now stretches nearly the entire length of the dial.
Of the top 50 markets, 13 markets (26 percent) remain pro-sellers, while the largest share, 23 markets (46 percent), is in a balanced, loose middle area. A further eight companies (16%) are already in the buyer’s market space. Meanwhile, six metropolitan areas (12%) are moving in the opposite direction, falling into a phase of balanced tightening.
Daniel Hale |Credit: Realtor.com
This is a reminder that seller leverage is starting to rebuild in some areas.
“While the national picture is informative, local details really matter when making real estate decisions,” Daniel Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, said in a statement. “Currently, homebuyers in Houston or San Antonio are navigating a completely different market than homebuyers in Hartford or Milwaukee. Realtor.com’s Market Clock was built to help them understand those differences at a glance.”
Sunbelt loosens as northern markets tighten
Regional fragmentation highlights how uneven the market has become. All eight buyer markets are concentrated in the South (seven) and West (one), while most of the thirteen sellers’ markets are concentrated in the Midwest (seven) and Northeast (three). This analysis is similar to a recent ranking of “hot” and “cold” markets that noted a seller advantage in the Northeast.
The favorable conditions for buyers are particularly pronounced in Florida and Texas, which account for five of the eight buyer markets. Tampa, Florida. Jacksonville, Florida. Orlando, Florida. And Miami. Each of these metropolitan areas falls into an area defined in the framework as an “early buyer” area. Inventories are rising, price cuts are becoming more common, and bargaining power is shifting towards buyers, with the potential for further gains in the coming months.
Meanwhile, seller strength remains strongest in the Midwest and Northeast. Four metropolitan areas, including Hartford, Conn., are in the “peak sellers” region, where competition and pricing power is most intense.
Six other cities, including Milwaukee, San Francisco, and Providence, Rhode Island, are in the “early seller” stage, continuing to tighten already strong conditions. Meanwhile, three markets, including Boston and San Jose, are in late-stage seller territory, where competition remains intense but is beginning to show early signs of softening.
A further eight of the top 50 subways arrive at 4 o’clock on the market clock. This is a “late balance” stage, where conditions are technically still even, but clearly tilted towards buyers.
In markets like Charlotte, North Carolina. Momentum is steadily shifting in Washington, DC; Phoenix; and Las Vegas, with homes staying on the market longer and price weakness becoming more apparent. If current trends continue, these cities are likely to enter full buyer’s market territory in the coming months.
Housing data (simplified)
Realtor.com Market Clock is a new framework designed to simplify complex housing data to create a clear snapshot of local market conditions. It is built on metrics such as supply and demand balance, market pace, and price pressure, and maps each subway to a 12-hour clock face.
Seller-friendly markets are at the top (11am to 1am), buyer-friendly markets are at the bottom (5pm to 7pm), and there are balanced stages in between, either loosening up on the buyer side (2pm to 4am) or tightening up on the seller side (8pm to 10am). At 12 o’clock the seller holds maximum leverage. At point 6, the buyer does so.
The Realtor.com Market Clock is available from Realtor.com’s housing market research portal and is updated quarterly.
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