These tweets give me my eyes:
I think it was possible to create a submarine-like argument that the AI boom was hurting the job market, but I don’t think this is particularly convincing because there is a risk that it is not safe. This is done with the following discussion in mind.
If we are rethinked, interest rates will be lower. It helps employment. It is a strange view that “an economic boom will not hurt the job market.”
Longtime readers have speculated that this hypothetical claim is seen as an example of error in “inference from price changes.”
In short, it’s amazing that the labor market is so strong. There was a period of high inflation between 2021 and 23, and unemployment rose as the Fed used restrictive monetary policy to overthrow inflation. Why did unemployment rise from 3.4% to 4.2%? I’m not sure, but Perhapps Bacouse has a loose excavation poly, and the event’s Aly Inftrim exceeds the Fed’s 2% target. Nevertheless, if the labour market is currently a little inferior, then it’s not the AI boom, but the probability is due to the prolonged efforts of the Fed’s anti-inflammatory policy.
I certainly agree with the argument that if the Fed pushes up interest rates above natural rates, unemployment could rise. However, the AI boom tends to increase the natural interest rate. Things are equal. Of course, other factors such as the low proportion of immigrants tend to reduce natural interest rates, making them agnostic to the question of whether monetary policy is currently strict. (Assid, the Tips market is currently priced at about 2.5% inflation over the next five years, which does not suggest that money will be particularly tough.)
Perhaps there is a debate that AI spends more labor-intensive industries on the crowd, but in principle the Fed should offset its effectiveness. Of course, Montary Poly is not perfect, but the internet boom of 1999-2000 does not seem to have hurt the labor market. In 2000, unemployment rates fell to their lowest levels since the 1960s. After the Fed carried out much slower NGDP growth in 2001, we ended up in a recession.
