Vehicles transporting people who fled southern Lebanon slowed due to traffic jams on outbound roads from Beirut in the area of Kalde on November 28, 2024, the day after the fire between Israel and Hezbollah stopped.
Ibrahim Amuro | AFP | Getty Images
Until a few months ago, the drive from Beirut’s international airport through the southern suburbs of Lebanon’s capital was characterized by a flow of Iran- and Hezbollah-themed propaganda.
Hassan Nasrara, a charismatic former leader of Iranian support groups who was killed in Beirut last year, stared at you from a billboard while driving along the Imam Khomeni Road, named after the late founder of Iran’s Islamic Republic. Images of Hezbollah leaders were scattered with dramatic murals of Iranian spy commander Qasem Soleimani.
Today, many of these images are being replaced by Western and local brands. In June, dozens of these signs along the highway instead featured Formula One race car driver Lewis Hamilton ad shaving products.
Many of the new posters also feature a patriotic, unified message that replaces the signs of previous sects. This is an attempt by Lebanon’s new prime minister, Nawafsalam, to “encourage a new era in Lebanon.
In this “new” Lebanon, Hezbollah is forced to operate in the shadows. This is more than ever in the group’s 40-year history.
Iranian agents, who manage several parts of Lebanon as substate groups and have been designated as terrorist organisations by Washington, have always been looking for creative ways to avoid US sanctions. But Israel’s offensive attacks (the most deadly attack since the 2006 war) have left Hezbollah’s leadership and financial infrastructure in ruins.
“Hezbollah finds himself in the greatest predicament since the foundations. The Israeli war with Lebanon hit the party and its infrastructure very much, assassinating the party’s senior military forces and political leaders.
“The areas where Shia population is primarily inhabited are heavily targeted and are destroying private housing and infrastructure extensively,” he said.
The vehicle is carrying the co-ops of former Hezbollah leaders Hassan Nasrara and Hashem Safideedin who were killed in Israeli airstrikes last year at the public funeral at Kamille Chamon Sports City Stadium on the outskirts of Beirut, Lebanon last year in an Israeli airstrike.
thaier al-sudani |Reuters
The group, whose political wing holds parliamentary seats, is still utilising Lebanon’s important political power, which last held parliamentary elections in 2022. Despite losing the most significant number of seats in the group’s political history, it has been toughened by a coalition of 62 seats in a 128-person parliament.
Although Hezbollah will not disappear because it has a strong, disciplined, organized political and extremist structure and benefits from Iran’s continued support, the group is “political and socially isolated outside of Lebanon’s Shia population,” Dah said.
Outside the banking system
Hezbollah receives much of its funding from Iran, but it is also developing a large international financial network to generate revenue. The group makes money from traditional industries such as banking and construction, but also operates smuggling, money laundering and international drug trafficking operations in the Middle East and in Bulgaria and Argentina. Its revenue is estimated at billions of dollars a year.
File photo: Gestures from Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader Sayad Hassan Nasrara speak to supporters at a rare public ceremony at the Ashura ceremony held in the southern suburbs of Beirut on November 3, 2014.
Hasan Shaaban |Reuters
Hezbollah’s parallel governance strategy has been operating as a group of both political parties and small states, allowing them to survive and grow as an armed group for decades.
When Lebanese depositors were locked out of savings in 2019 after a financial meltdown crippled the country and its currency, Hezbollah was able to fund its base and illegal activities. They ran cash-only companies and performed black market US dollar exchanges.
Regional analysts say the strategy will continue despite pressure on their finances.
Lebanon’s economy “runs more than 60% in cash exchanges, and its distribution cannot be traced by the state,” Dah said. “Thanks to this cash distribution segment, Hezbollah will smuggle into Lebanon to fund its activities, pay employees and support popular bases alongside other sources of funding.”
However, the US, under President Donald Trump’s administration, is putting new pressure on Lebanon’s new government to crack down on Hezbollah’s illegal activities.
New government crackdown
In a clear blow to Hezbollah’s financing business, Lebanese central bank Bank du Liban (BDL) has issued an order banning all financial institutions in the country from its deal with Al Kaldo Al Hasan, a Hezbollah-related financial entity that offers local loans by providing local loans secured by using gold and jewellery as collateral. This is a tool for Hezbollah to support the country’s Shia population and to gain more funds for its operations. Israel has specifically targeted the Al-Qard Al-Hasan facility, which was equipped with airstrikes last year.
Al-Qard Al-Hasan has long been registered as a charity, operated outside the Lebanese financial system and managed to avoid regulatory oversight, so Matthew Levitt, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and director of the Counterterrorism Program, said that BDL’s move was “inventive.”
“Here, BDL jumps up the gap and says, “No matter what you are, people can’t serve you. You can’t provide a bank.”
After Israeli airstrikes on Israeli Hezbollah’s target, black smoke rose above the Dahiye district. It is widely believed that this is the last of a series of strikes announced by Israel targeting Hashem Safidiyin, the successor to Hashmoulla leader Hassan Nasrara, and announced that Israel had been killed near the international airport, which was told to the international airport. Lebanon.
Scott Peterson | Getty Images
Until recently, Hezbollah managed almost every port in Lebanon, including Beirut Airport. After the attack on Israeli groups, the airport is now under the control of the Lebanese government, firing staff related to Hezbollah, detaining smugglers and implementing new surveillance techniques.
And while Tehran still funds its proxy groups, its routes to Lebanon have been dramatically restricted after losing its important alliance with the collapse of Syrian Bashar al-Assad regime. Flights coming from Iran and elsewhere are intended to provide material support for Hezbollah. The expert told CNBC.
“Cash transfers from overseas are being intercepted at airports and borders. We’re talking about millions of dollars,” Dah said of the country’s new security.
“The window of opportunity is now.”
Those who want to see Hezbollah’s powers being dismantled say the time has come.
“Now that Iran is under immense stress, and there is an interesting opportunity to do so when Lebanon is trying to drive away Hezbollah’s ability to act as an independent militia and target funds.
For the first time in decades, both the Lebanese Prime Minister and the President are interested in asserting monopoly on the use of force within the country, he added.
“They are interested in securing the much needed international aid that Lebanon needs to get out of the economic crisis, and they are interested in not saying no to the Trump administration.”
But it’s not that easy. Long said to be the most powerful non-state organisation in the Middle East, the group remains faithful to hundreds of thousands of people who rely on social services and ideological leadership.
In particular, no one has officially requested that Hezbollah break up or stop being entirely there. Trump’s envoy to the Tom Barrack area recently demanded that Hezbollah discard his weapons. This is a proposition that the group rejected.
“Hezbollah is not going to disarm you because you ask them well,” Levitt said. “But the Lebanese government needs to do this and give them the ability to do it and allow them to have their backs when they do it.”
That requires a combination of carrots and sticks, says a former US official — a tool that was often weakened by the shrinking resources of the US government under the Trump administration.
Alexander Zerden, principal of Washington-based risk advisory firm Capitol Peak Strategy, previously worked for the US Treasury Department’s Office of Terrorism Financial Information, and has outlined some of those potential approaches.
“On the offensive side, the US may continue to target Hezbollah’s financial networks both inside and outside Lebanon. The US will try to deny access to Syria, including profitable reconstruction agreements,” Zerden said.
“On the incentive side, direct tools are more limited due to diplomacy and reduced development capabilities,” he noted. It is an example of a gush of USAID that served as a powerful diplomatic vehicle. “But he added, “It appears there’s space for the US to support economic reform.”
For Lebanon’s political analyst and host of the Beirut Banyan Podcast, what really needs is international pressure to encourage Iran to abandon its involvement in Lebanon.
“What remains unchanged in Lebanon’s favor is the international side and means Iran will find a way to abandon Lebanon, which I think will only happen through strategic diplomacy,” said the father, whose father, a former Lebanese finance minister, was killed on suspicion of a Hezbollah assassination plot.
“If the Trump administration wants peace as he says repeatedly, and if Donald Trump wants the Nobel Peace Prize, then there’s some way to help Lebanon take the spotlight and find a peaceful solution that in a way meets Iran’s criteria,” he told CNBC from Beirut.
What has been done so far by both the US and Lebanese governments is important, but Chatta warned that in the end it will not break the power of Hezbollah.
“The window of opportunity is now. It’s not tomorrow. Unfortunately, it’s a window of closure,” he said. “The intention is not sufficient. Whether it’s from the Trump administration or the Lebanese president, the intention is not sufficient.”
