Based in part on comments from Zillow executives this week, housing analysts have a bearish outlook for the housing market in 2026.
Forget what the NAR economists say.
Tracy Ryniek, value stock strategist at investment research firm Zacks, has a negative outlook for the housing market this year.
“Residential real estate will not recover this year,” Ryniec wrote in a post on social media platform X this week.
Zacks also quoted Ryniek pointing to Zillow’s moves and comments made by company executives on a conference call discussing this year’s results and general outlook for the market.
“Zillow ended at 16.5 [percent] today. “Both companies commented in their earnings press releases that housing market conditions will remain ‘challenging’ in the first quarter. The housing recession will not end this year,” Liniec said in a statement. The spring shopping season will be a huge failure. ”
“Zillow ended today down 16.5%. In its earnings press release, the company commented that housing market conditions will remain “challenging” in the first quarter. The housing recession will not end this year. The spring shopping season will be a huge failure. ”
– @TraceyRyniec,…
— Zacks.com (@ZacksResearch) February 11, 2026
The comments are in stark contrast to predictions made by NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun late last year.
Yun said he expects existing home sales to increase 14% this year compared to last year.
The outlook was the most optimistic among economists at major industry firms, with most expecting the housing market to be roughly flat this year.
By contrast, Realtor.com has an expected growth rate of 1.7% in home sales this year.
Compass Chief Economist Mike Simonsen said he expected growth to be 4% this year, but left room for hope that it could be a better year if a variety of macroeconomic factors come together to create a “Goldilocks” environment that could boost home sales by as much as 10% this year.
Zillow expects existing home sales to increase 4.3% this year from a year ago, but its economists tried to predict that the market will be flat this year.
“On the macro side…we were not planning for housing revenue to be very strong this year,” Zillow CFO Jeremy Hoffman said on a conference call with investors on Tuesday. “We’re starting to see affordability starting to improve. But that doesn’t necessarily reflect in homes selling faster or things like that.”
Hoffman noted that housing affordability has improved. But it may take some time for that to be reflected in home sales, he said.
“We think this is a good sign to encourage a broader recovery over time,” Hoffman said on a conference call. “We’re not necessarily planning that for 2026.”
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