“Trump stepped into deep blue territory to boost his candidacy among Black and Latino voters. Throughout the campaign, he sought to attract minority voters by focusing on the economy. Trump has made gains among young minority men, but it’s unclear how much of an impact on the race.
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During the 2024 presidential campaign, former President Donald Trump has spent his time solidifying the Republican base of voters in rural and suburban areas, where his support remains strongest.
He has also spent much of his time holding rallies in solidly Democratic cities such as Atlanta, Detroit and Philadelphia.
And on Sunday, he will headline a rally at Madison Square Garden and campaign for conservatives in Manhattan, where Democrats are overwhelming Republicans in the polls.
President Trump believes this strategy has value because he had stronger support from minority voters over the past year compared to 2020. And with President Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris deadlocked in the presidential race, every vote counts.
economic argument
Polls show that most voters are concerned about the current state of the economy, Mr. Trump’s biggest issue. He is using the issue to try to carve support for Harris among the groups needed to help her win the presidency.
This includes black voters, who have overwhelmingly supported Democratic politicians for decades, as well as Latino voters, whose support for Democrats as a whole has waned in recent years. Among both groups, the shift toward Mr. Trump among young male voters is notable.
A recent GenForward survey found that 26% of young black men supported Trump, compared to 58% who supported Harris. Among young Latino men, 44% of respondents supported Trump and 37% supported Harris. (Overall, exit polls found that Black men voted for Biden 79% to 19% in 2020, and Latino men supported Biden 59% to 36% that same year.)
Trump is aiming to chip away at Democratic support in cities such as Philadelphia. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
Mr. Trump has long linked issues such as immigration to the economy, but he has stepped up his efforts this year. During a debate with President Joe Biden in June, President Trump said immigrants were taking “black jobs” and “Hispanic jobs.” The former president has also slammed both Biden and Harris over inflation, arguing that economic conditions were far better for minorities under the Biden administration.
Under both the Biden and Trump administrations, black unemployment rates were at their lowest in decades. And the former president is using the issue as a potential catalyst to bring more minorities into the Republican Party.
Trump is leaning into a non-traditional political persona as he seeks to strip Democratic support from blacks, Latinos and Asians. In May, he held a rally in the Bronx that generated more buzz than any other Republican. And even though Harris is almost certain to win in New York, the idea that she will hold a rally at the Blue Citadel’s Madison Square Garden just days before the election only strengthens Trump’s case. .
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Voting trends in battleground states
In battleground states like Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, Republicans don’t control suburban communities the way they did in the 1980s, 1990s, and most of the 2000s.
In 2020, Biden performed well in the inner-ring suburbs of Atlanta, Detroit, and Philadelphia, respectively, while also winning in actual city centers by a landslide. These large margins enabled Mr. Biden to overturn Mr. Trump’s lead in most rural counties in each state.
These populous metropolitan areas account for a sizable share of the votes needed to win statewide, and Republicans have continued to lose close races with suburban voters during the Trump administration, with the former president gaining votes in other areas. need to be supplemented.
According to the Pew Research Center, Biden won 66% of urban voters in 2020, compared to Trump’s approval rating of 33%. Among suburban voters, Mr. Biden had a 54% to 43% advantage over Mr. Trump.
President Trump’s emphasis on urban rallies has boosted Republicans’ visibility in areas where they normally wouldn’t even bother showing up.
However, it also reflects possible long-term changes in voting patterns that may occur in the 2024 election. If Trump grows support among minority men, Republicans will likely welcome his strategy. Still, it may not be enough to defeat Harris, as the presidential race remains close.
