President Donald Trump held the charts on April 2, 2025 when he announced plans for tariffs on imported goods during an event at the White House Rose Garden.
Washington Post by Demetrius Freeman/Getty Images
The fate of many of President Trump’s tariffs is uncertain after a series of court rulings this week.
But even if the court block on country-specific tariffs is upheld, others who remain in the book on products such as steel and automobiles are expected to cost nearly $1,000 a year, according to a new analysis by Yale Budget Lab.
“Consumer wallets” are in “shrinking,” said Ernie Tedeski, former chief economist, director of economics at the White House Council of Economic Advisors’ Yale Budget Lab during the Biden administration.
Duties are taxes paid on imports, and are importing goods by US entities. Companies are expected to pass at least some of these costs to consumers.
But the dollar impact of the remaining tariffs on dollars is “a fair cry” if country-specific tariffs remain, he said.
The U.S. International Trade Court on Wednesday blocked country-specific tariffs, including baseline tariffs in most countries in 10% and separate taxes in Canada, Mexico and China, linked to fentanyl trafficking allegations.
A panel of three judges found that Trump surpassed his authority by invoking the international emergency economic forces law to impose these import obligations.
The Court of Appeal temporarily suspended the order Thursday to review the case.
Automatic steel and aluminum charges remain
But tariffs for 25% on iron, aluminum, automobiles and auto parts are still in place, with some sculptures in place, and certain Chinese tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term and expanded during the Biden administration, written by capital economists Jennifer McKeun and Stephen Brown on Thursday.
These duties were imposed using different legal authorities.
If the lower court order is held, these remaining tariffs will spend $950 in purchasing power on average households in 2025, according to a Yale Budget Lab analysis issued Thursday. This means consumer prices will rise by 0.6%.
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Another way consumers can see this legal development: The first court ruling, if upheld, would save households worth more than $1,800 this year, Tedeski said.
That’s because if country-specific tariffs end up staying in books, the average household will lose around $2,800 in 2025, Tedeski said.
In that case, he said consumer prices would rise by about 1.7% this year.
McKeown and Brown estimate that the court’s ruling will reduce the effective tariff rate from 15% to 6.5%. At the beginning of the year it was 2.5%, they said.
The “most direct effect” of the remaining tariffs is on the purchase of the car, Tedeski said. Auto prices could rise about 8% this year and 5% in the long term, he said.
However, steel and aluminum are entered into the strips of consumer products, from household items to household appliances.
It’s not necessarily the “end of things” of tariffs
According to McKeown and Brown, the Supreme Court could be the ultimate arbitrator of Trump’s country-specific tariffs.
Furthermore, they wrote, “It would unlikely mark the end of the tariff war given the various other routes the Trump administration could impose tariffs.”
The Trump administration has also indicated its intention to impose obligations on additional products such as medicines, semiconductors, copper and wood.
Yesterday’s court ruling was a “groundbreaking ruling,” Tedeski said. “I don’t think that’s the end of things.”
