Conservatives like to portray California’s declining population levels as a result of defections as evidence that Democratic strongholds are proving the party’s policies are a failure. So what do they make of the fact that the United States has moved to net immigration in 2025, driven not just by an outflow of “illegal” immigrants, but by an increase in the number of Americans choosing to become foreign nationals? If this trend continues, the United States faces the prospect of population decline, as the birth rate is currently 1.6 children per reproductive-age woman, well below the replacement rate.
The Wall Street Journal published an in-depth article on the foreigners in this equation, “Americans are leaving the U.S. in record numbers,” which also includes interview findings. Although the article attempts to portray that the main motivation for leaving was not a desire to lower the cost of living, a closer reading reveals that broader economic considerations were an important factor. For example, the article states, “The number of U.S.-based academics seeking jobs abroad increased by more than a fifth last year…Professors teaching abroad accused the U.S. right of cutting research funding and the left of cracking down on university speech.” Ahem. If cuts to investigative budgets have seriously diminished your career prospects and foreign agencies are scrambling to hire you, that’s an economic factor, one directly created by President Trump. It is unlikely that language restrictions for drivers will help in a relatively small number of cases. The journal that picked up this issue appears to be trying to throw flowers at the administration.
But think about it this way.
A Gallup poll last year found that 40% of American women ages 15 to 44 would live abroad permanently if possible. By comparison, in 2023, the same pollster found a slightly smaller share of sub-Saharan Africans (37%) wanted the same thing.
This is an unusual response, even considering the fact that surveys often yield answers that are biased toward what respondents think the person asking the question wants to hear. Women typically, and in fact often, value relationships more than men. The fact that such a high percentage seriously considers the idea of living far away from family and friends shows that something is wrong at a collective level. What is my opinion? “It’s neoliberalism, idiot.” It is the result of unfairly organizing society to serve the needs of commerce by weakening community bonds, emphasizing mobility for career opportunities, and making it even more difficult to raise a family than it should be.
The article focuses on the idea that improved costs of living have not been a major driver of increased migration to Europe, despite the dollar’s 12% depreciation against the euro. However, the fact that dollar purchases are currently declining in the euro area does not begin to establish that many, if not most, people are citing the relative cost of living as a key factor in their decision-making. The United States is in the midst of an affordability crisis. In particular, health insurance and treatment costs continue to rise at an alarming rate. Most destinations in the EU may still offer a purchasing power advantage, although not as much as when the dollar was strong.
This story provides a lot of great “big picture” information. The magazine points out that the last time the United States had an overpopulation was in 1935, when the outlook for the United States was so poor that Soviet Russia looked like greener pastures. The Journal argues in its introduction that the impact of Trump’s policies on illegal immigration is masking the fact that a growing number of Americans no longer think remaining in the United States is a great option.
However, behind the storm of immigration oppression lies a less obvious reversal phenomenon. In record numbers, mainland Americans are leaving the country and relocating themselves and their families to lands they deem more affordable and safe.
More than 100,000 young students are enrolling abroad to pursue a more affordable university degree. A mushrooming number of nursing homes across the Mexican border are drawing older Americans seeking low-cost care.
Some commentators have dubbed this wave of American immigrants the “Donald Dash” as their numbers soared during President Trump’s second term. But the phenomenon has been growing for years, driven by increased remote work, rising costs of living, and a desire for a foreign lifestyle that feels affordable, especially in Europe.
A White House spokesperson said the U.S. economy is far outpacing that of other developed countries and that Trump administration policies have deported hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrants and attracted “countless ultra-wealthy foreigners” who are “spending $1 million on gold cards to settle in the United States.”
According to calculations by the Brookings Institution, a public policy think tank, the United States is likely to experience net negative immigration in 2025 (an estimated decrease of about 150,000 people), with an increase in out-migration in 2026. Analysts at Brookings said the number could be higher or lower because official U.S. data does not yet fully capture the number of people leaving. Total immigration in 2025 will be around 2.6 million to 2.7 million, down from a peak of almost 6 million in 2023.
According to data from the Department of Homeland Security, there were 675,000 deportations and 2.2 million “self-deportations” in the United States last year.
A Wall Street Journal analysis of 15 countries that provided all or part of their 2025 data showed that at least 180,000 Americans participated. That number is likely to rise further as other countries report their full statistics.
Getting decent data is a problem. Some expatriates may still hold onto their U.S. residences or other anchors so they can be assessed as still here, even if they’ve spent a lot of time overseas, to test the waters before ultimately deciding to take the plunge. Some people abuse tourist visas. Those with student visas will be omitted.
The article continues:
No single data set accurately records the estimated 4 million to 9 million Americans already living outside the United States. The State Department estimates that 1.6 million people will live in Mexico in 2022, and while that number has likely increased in the years following the pandemic, recent cartel violence has made some expats uneasy. Canada has a population of more than 250,000 people, but it doesn’t fully account for the influx of Americans who have dual citizenship or live across the border. More than 325,000 people live in the UK, part of the more than 1.5 million people currently living in Europe, according to the Association of Americans Abroad, a Paris-based nonprofit organization.
This story has focused a lot of attention on Europe, which is experiencing (suffering?) record high levels of American immigration, and is only likely to increase further. Apart from a reasonable level of cultural commonality, most readers will probably know that most EU member states grant citizenship to applicants who have at least one grandparent or parent from that country. In addition to that, many countries (particularly Spain, Greece, Cyprus, and last I checked, Uruguay) offer citizenship for a certain non-destructive level of overseas remittances and minimum spending on real estate. Most people agree that the EU is a really good deal.
Great deal: The United States has higher salaries, a more mobile workforce, and millions of Americans yearning for a better life. Europe needs these workers and their income to support France’s pension system, where retirees earn more than working-age adults, according to the Luxembourg Income Survey. European salaries are constrained by high taxes and low growth. Retail stores, restaurants, and real estate agents are looking for foreign customers.
In return, Europe offered cheaper healthcare, walkable cities dotted with sidewalk bistros and co-working spaces, and English replaced local languages. In many cities, housing remains relatively cheap and plentiful. Schools are affordable, safe, and generally rated higher than in the US, with the exception of universities.
In addition to residing in a foreign country, some people seek to avoid worldwide taxation on their U.S. income.
Even if the idea was that this was a temporary experiment with pandemic-era laptop nomads logging in from faraway shores, the data suggests it had a long lifespan. The U.S. government has had a waiting list for months of Americans seeking to renounce their citizenship to secure foreign passports or avoid taxes on their overseas earnings. According to the immigration company, the number of applications in 2024 will increase by 48% and is likely to exceed the number of applications in 2025.
The article further highlights that this change goes beyond the existing trend of retirees moving abroad to cut costs and perhaps find adventure later in life. Many of those with children have left the camp and are likely to attend universities overseas.
Barron’s conducted extensive interviews. Many people woke up to the smell of coffee and felt that life in America was not so hot anymore.
Across dozens of interviews, U.S. expatriates cited violent crime, the cost of living, and turbulent politics, and described a complex web of motivations that included economic motives, lifestyle preferences, and disagreements about the trajectory of the United States. While Trump’s re-election was a factor for many, there were also those who voted for him. But the structural and social changes run deeper. When Gallup asked Americans during the 2008 recession how many wanted to leave the United States, the answer was one in ten. Last year, it was one in five.
In the 1990s I knew I was going to be an expat, but the need to make a living still kept me here. One thing that even interviewees don’t mention is the high stress that comes with international relocation. When I moved to Sydney in 2002 (Australia is culturally the closest to the US and has a nice climate), I found myself needing to drink every day for the first three months (I’m usually pretty abstinent), even though I went on three month-long exploration trips, each with a full schedule of meetings. reason? Even though I did a lot of advance work, I was still frequently surprised by how different things were from the US than I had expected. It’s not that these new discoveries are bad, it’s just that unknowns that were previously unknown often surface.
The film completely omits the practical issues that come with moving abroad, such as managing bank accounts and investments, visa hurdles, restrictions on real estate ownership, and often the high levels of friction that come with having to deal with two tax systems. The realization that self-proclaimed leading expat publications are completely second-guessed about what’s going on in Malaysia, which was my first choice (and no longer a starter due to the sudden sharp increase in income requirements for long-term visas), is a stark illustration of the need to take expert advice with a grain of salt.
Similarly, a friend of mine who has lived in Vietnam for 17 years has just been offered a great opportunity here, and he is also very attracted to Vietnam’s vibrancy and high functionality. But he says he’s too old to relearn new systems and the day-to-day things about how government and society operate.
The article focuses on anecdotes like the allure of delicious gelato (easy to find in the gastronomic capital of New York), cheap health care, quality and welcoming schools (only 1 in 12 interviewed students plans to return to the United States), and charm.
Let me tell you, I have no regrets about my two years in Sydney and my current life in South East Asia. But doing it yourself is much more difficult than having someone offshored by a major multinational company and having them handle much of the fuss and even pay for it. If you’re considering going this route, be sure to get good information and accurately record your suitability. For someone who wasn’t very active when they were younger, a dislocation when making a big jump overseas may be harder to deal with emotionally than you expected.
