Eve is here. Andrew Korybko’s book provides a useful, high-level summary of what President Trump was trying to do to weaken China’s relations with Russia and India, but readers are likely to take issue with some of his characterizations. Korybko’s wording is sometimes not as precise as would be ideal. I do not portray Russia as “leaning” towards China. China’s economic support from the beginning of the special military operation was absolutely essential, both for Russia and for itself, and for emboldening other countries to resist American pressure and continue trading with Russia. And let’s not forget that China and Russia signed a very extensive 5,000-word partnership agreement in early February 2022, just as they did before the conflict began.
That being said, it is truly remarkable that Trump and his team are absolutely convinced that their only strategy, extreme advantage, will be effective should it continue to backfire. But then again, the peanut gallery mistakenly assumes that the purpose is to advance U.S. interests, rather than orchestrate a show of God-Emperor Trump that spans the world like a colossus.
Andrew Korybko is a Moscow-based American political analyst specializing in the global systemic transition to multipolarity in the new Cold War. He holds a doctorate from MGIMO, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Originally published on his website
Due to recent changes in the international system, the transition to a multipolar global system is now proceeding along a different trajectory than before. Up to this point, Trump 2.0 has been exploring resource and military partnerships with Russia and India, respectively, that could slow China’s rise to superpower, which would make China a junior partner in the “G2″/”Chimerica” arrangement. However, his Eurasian balancing act failed due to his arrogant and aggressive approach towards all three countries.
After the Anchorage summit, relations with Russia soured following reports raising concerns about US plans to support NATO troops in Ukraine, scaring Putin into abandoning his country’s Eurasian balance plan in favor of China. This is in the form of a legally binding agreement just concluded on the construction of the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. The resource-based partnership with Russia that the United States had envisioned with the aim of extracting concessions on Ukraine is now much less likely.
As for India, relations soured due to conflicts with Pakistan in the spring, but President Trump supported Pakistan and even lied that India had agreed to a US-brokered ceasefire. After that, the United States hypocritically imposed punitive tariffs on India for continuing trade with Russia, even though it avoided punitive tariffs on countries such as China. Meanwhile, Trump also heavily insulted India. Concluding that India was serious about derailing its rise as a great power, it quickly resolved its issues with China and distanced itself from the United States.
Amid China-India rapprochement, Russia’s pivot to China through the Power of Siberia 2 has neutralized the resources and military means to slow China’s rise as a superpower through partnership with Russia, and the G2/Chimerica agreement is now at China’s mercy. In response, President Xi Jinping endorsed stronger rhetoric about rebuilding world order in his speeches at the SCO Summit and VJ Day, which led him to accuse President Trump of “collusion” against the United States.
The Sino-U.S. Interim Trade Agreement is now in jeopardy, as he just threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China by November 1, or potentially earlier, depending on when China imposes export restrictions on rare earth minerals. Coupled with dramatic accusations that Xi is “colluding” with Putin and Kim Jong Un against the United States, even if indirectly through proxies, this could foreshadow future military-strategic tensions. If that happens, Eurasia will become even more unstable in line with America’s traditional divide-and-conquer strategy.
Clockwise, these can take the form of: Encourage color revolution unrest in Mongolia to undermine Power of Siberia 2. If Japan, Taiwan, or the Philippines cause an incident with China in disputed waters. Blocking China’s access to rare earth minerals in Myanmar’s Kachin State. and/or sow instability in Central Asia via NATO member state Turkiye through the new TRIPP corridor. China’s response to such a scenario could be to provide arms to Russia and even send troops to support Ukraine.
Xi has seen how Trump mistreated his friend Modi despite leading a country that could potentially join the US anti-centre axis, and is also watching how he is betraying Putin in post-Anchorage Ukraine, and expects similar treatment if he agrees to the G2/Chimerica deal. He also knows that China now has a target on its back following recent tariffs and President Trump’s accusations of a “conspiracy.” It is therefore no wonder that Trump 2.0’s Eurasian balance policy, characterized by arrogance and aggression, failed.
