There has been a lot of excited commentary about the Trump-Putin phone call, after which it appears Trump over-hyped the idea that another Trump-Putin summit would happen soon. Not even having seen the kinda-sorta readouts, Douglas Macgregor was of the “prove it to me” school in terms of seeing if this gambit amounted to a meaningful step forward. If you read the Trump statement and the recap of the phone call from Putin’s aide Yury Ushakov, reproduced in full from the Kremlin site at the end of this post, there is indeed much less here than the excited reactions would have you believe. Importantly, the Ushakov remarks make clear that the much-ballyhooed idea of a next summit was discussed but not agreed by the Russian side. Recall also that Trump just claimed in a call with Modi that Modi had agreed to stop importing Russian oil. India issued a tortured-so-as-apparently-not-to-call-Trump-a-liar denial.
As we’ll review, the practical significance of this call and follow-up meetings appears more to be to buy both Trump and Putin more room for maneuver domestically. A related element of significance is that the call mildly disproves the recent din of criticism in Russia, even by the Russian Foreign Ministry, that the process that Putin attempted to get started in the Alaska summit was dead. That has been to confirm the argument by hardliners who are apparently getting much the broader public that Putin has been way too soft in his prosecution of the Ukraine war and vis-a-vis Trump, that Russia should quit fooling around with pretending that there is any point in talking to the West, and the only resolution to the war is a military one. Even though yours truly does not follow the Russian press, even at this considerable remove, it has been apparent that the Russian media, including even Putin’s favorite Pavel Zarubin, has been questioning Putin aggressively on this topic, which is out of character for the press pool.
However, this does not change the fact that there will be no negotiated settlement to this war, absent “negotiation” being Russia allowing Ukraine to get some very mild softening of a capitulation agreement or perhaps some “negotiation” with a successor regime in rump Ukraine after the current one decamps to set up a government in exile. There is no overlap between the Russian and the Ukraine/US/EU position. Ukraine and most of the European states will not accept a neutral Ukraine and in particular, a commitment that it not eveh join NATO (or a militarized EU as way to evade the requirement). Ukraine has autonomy; the US cannot do a deal with Russia over Ukraine’s head. Admittedly, the US could compel Ukraine to fall into line by cutting off all intelligence but Congress would not tolerate that. Recall Lindsey Graham threatened Trump with the claim that he had 80 votes, as in more than enough to prevail in an impeachment trial, for his “bone-crushing” sanctions. Graham can presumably round up the same suspects again.
If you look at the Alaska summit, it did accomplish two small things. First, Putin did manage to persuade Trump to drop his insistence on “ceasefire first, negotions next”. Keep in mind that this is a process issue, and not a substance (what does a peace amount to?) issue. As skeptics correctly pointed out, this looked simply like a gambit for Ukraine to regroup and attempt to rearm.
Second, recall that right before the Alaska gathering was set up, Trump was under very heavy pressure by Graham and Richard Blumenthal to impose those “bone crushing secondary sanctions on nations that traded in Russian oil, which would kill trade with China and many others stone cold dead. Trump may have believed other nations might knuckle under but was in the process of finding with India that they were a backfire. So the summit also allowed him to hold off the demands of the Russia hawks. Buying time was productive. First, it became evident at least to some that they had failed with India. Second, the Trump team finally came up with its show-stopper: it would impose them only if the EU did too. Their refusal enabled Trump to wave off Graham’s and Blumenthal’s demands.
Recall that the new escalatory demand has been for the US to equip Ukraine with Tomahawk ballistic missiles. The pretense that little green men other than Americans can operate them is even more ludicrous than with other US systems.
Even though experts have debunked five ways to Sunday whether this can even be done. One of many issues: to keep the pretense is that Ukraine is operating the missiles, it would need to be a ground-launched system. The only one that maybe exists now is ginormous and Russia could almost certainly destroy the platform. On top of that wee problem, there are too few missiles to make any difference. See Black Mountain Analysis for an exhaustive analysis of the general issue.
However, this step is massively provocative as a mere idea. Tomahawks are nuclear capable. Even if Russia is absolutely certain none of the Tomahawks fired at it were nuclear-equipped, it cannot allow this precedent. Putin and others have been walking the line of not getting hair-on-fire about this (which would embolden the many nutters in the US and NATO states) while trying to convey that this would be a Very Bad idea.
Putin appears to have made progress on that front in his conversation:
One phone call and Tomahawk Missiles are off the table and Trump is hustling to Budapest to meet with Putin. pic.twitter.com/tkU2qLKbIg
— Maine (@TheMaineWonk) October 16, 2025
And the mere timing of the call is a kick in the head to Zelensky, who is in Washington today to demand those Patriots. From the BBC:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet with US President Donald Trump in Washington on Friday, as Trump weighs whether to arm Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles capable of striking deep into Russia.
Of course, Zelensky tried spinning that Russia was operating from weakness. From the same account:
As Zelensky arrived in the US, his third visit since January, he said Moscow was “rushing to resume dialogue as soon as it hears about Tomahawks”.
But we need to step back and look at the bigger context of the on-again, off again US-Russia talks. Since meetings started in Istanbul, Russia has been trying to get the US to negotiate in a grown-up manner, as in a way that will produce adequate understanding between the two sides so as to lead to detailed agreements that both sides can and will respect.
Here I fail to understand why Russia bothers, save to somewhat reverse the very bad baseline between the two nations. The US has established repeatedly and consistently that it is utterly untrustworthy. So unless the Russian side are idiots, the purpose here is not to reach an agreement, but to improve communications and somewhat reduce the level of misunderstanding and friction, particularly so as to avoid a nuclear war (remember every war game the US has played out between the US and Russia has ended in a nuclear conflagration).
Russia has proposed that each side pursue three tracks and had identified what each team should pursue. When criticized that this was all too low-level, Russia had even offered to deploy more senior officials (even though its team actually was heavyweight; the US suffers from Big Man syndrome, as so apparently anyone less that foreign minister Lavrov will not do).
It was evident that the US was not prepared to do anything. Russia has some initial demands, including returning its impermissibly seized US diplomatic property and re-opening direct flights. The failure to do either points to US unseriousness and/or considerable bureaucratic opposition. I would keep an eye on those two matters as indictors of whether this new initiative is getting anywhere.
Now with that background, where do things actually stand? First from Trump:
So Trump admits to making a “shape of the table” concession to Putin, that there will be lower level discussions first, albeit not all that much lower, before a summit.
Given the US pattern of not preparing for discussions, I would not hold my breath about progress being made quickly. Putin has said he was always willing to meet with Trump if groundwork were laid. One has to wonder what Steve Witkoff said in his three hours in person at the Kremlin to get Putin to relent and commit to the Alaska summit. It took Witkoff five hours to tee up this conversation.
As you can see from Ushakov’s summary below, Putin has not yet agreed to a summit:
In this context, it is worthy of note that the presidents discussed the possibility of holding another personal meeting. This is indeed a very significant development. It was agreed that representatives of both countries would immediately begin preparations for the summit, which could potentially be organised in Budapest, for instance.
Notice the inconsistent tone: “immediately” teeing up an even that is merely a possibility. The squaring of that circle may simply be getting some national leader to agree to be a host if and when things progress. In keeping, Putins’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov is talking down timing expectations. From TASS in Putin-Trump meeting to be prepared gradually, many issues to be resolved — Kremlin:
Preparations for a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US counterpart Donald Trump will be in several stages, as the leaders of diplomatic agencies are working on resolving a large number of issues, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a press briefing, replying to a question by TASS.
“The thing is that the issue will be worked out by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Secretary of State Rubio,” the Kremlin official noted. “First, they will have a phone conversation and meet, and hold discussions on the topic, begin discuss all issues,” he noted.
“There are a lot of issues – it is necessary to determine negotiating teams,” Peskov said. “Everything will be in stages,” he added.
As to Budapest, perhaps Putin was too polite to point out in real time, assuming Trump suggested Hungary on the call, that Trump is map-challenged:
It is still not known how Putin intends to get to Budapest for a potential summit, considering that Hungary is a landlocked county and all of the countries surrounding it would probably refuse to allow an aircraft operated by the Russian Government, especially one carrying Putin,… https://t.co/BL3kSk4cnA pic.twitter.com/5MzJ06VKlQ
— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) October 16, 2025
And this is just tacky:
It is noteworthy that one of the US President’s key arguments centred on the premise that the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine would open up tremendous – and he stressed this – tremendous prospects for the development of US-Russian economic cooperation.
Those impatient with the progress of the conflict may be frustrated that these talks will help Putin in slow-walking the war, which is what they believe he has been doing. But one has to note that even before this call, Mark Sleboda, who has been the most accurate English-speaking commentator in projecting how it would advance, is now discussing Russian operations continuing into 2027. Of course, that pre-supposes no collapse, which could come about due to the electricity war, as opposed to the pace of operations in the east.
However, recall that to Trump’s considerable anger, Russia did not slow its conduct of the war after the Alaska gathering. But there is a case to be made for Russia continuing to (merely) attrit Ukraine. We are seeing government in Europe start to break under the pressure of hysterical demands for more guns as opposed to butter as standards of living are already falling due to the reverberating impact of the rejection of cheap Russian gas. A “right wing” as in not-keen-about-fighting Russia coalition under Andrej Babis is forming a new government in the Czech Republic. Macron is a dead man walking in France. It is an open question as to whether he can hold off calling Parliamentary election until his term ends in May 2027, but both the left and Rassemblement Nationale are against more spending for Project Ukraine. The longer the war continues, the more EU member states will go into revolt. So as much as patience is maddening, there is method to this madness.
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From the Kremlin website, Commentary by Aide to the President of Russia Yury Ushakov following a telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and President of the United States Donald Trump:
Aide to the President of Russia Yury Ushakov: Colleagues,
Today in the afternoon, Vladimir Putin had a telephone conversation, the eighth one, with US President Donald Trump.
The conversation lasted almost two and a half hours. Clearly, it was a rather substantive and at the same time very open and frank exchange.
Our President started out by congratulating Donald Trump on his successful efforts to normalise the situation in the Gaza Strip. The US President’s peace work has been duly appreciated in the Middle East, in the United States itself, and in most countries around the world.
Naturally, the Russian side outlined its principled position in favour of a comprehensive Middle East settlement on a generally recognised international legal basis that would ensure lasting peace for all the peoples in that region.
A special emphasis during the conversation was placed on the Ukraine crisis. Vladimir Putin provided a detailed assessment of the current situation, stressing Russia’s interest in achieving a peaceful resolution through political and diplomatic methods.
In particular, it was noted that during the special military operation, the Russian Armed Forces hold full strategic initiative along the entire line of contact. Under these circumstances, the Kiev regime resorts to terrorist methods, attacking civilian targets and energy infrastructure facilities, to which we are forced to respond accordingly.
Donald Trump repeatedly emphasised the imperative of establishing peace in Ukraine at the earliest opportunity. The notion that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has proven the most intractable issue in all peacekeeping efforts of the US President was palpably evident throughout his remarks during the conversation. In this context, he naturally mentioned his successes in settling eight other regional conflicts.
It is noteworthy that one of the US President’s key arguments centred on the premise that the resolution of the conflict in Ukraine would open up tremendous – and he stressed this – tremendous prospects for the development of US-Russian economic cooperation.
Incidentally, both sides spoke of the profound mutual affinity between the peoples of the two countries, which was so vividly demonstrated during the Second World War. It was underscored that the current state of bilateral relations appears paradoxical against this backdrop.
The issue of potential supplies of long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine was also raised. Vladimir Putin reiterated his position that Tomahawks would not change the situation on the battlefield but would inflict substantial damage to relations between our countries, to say nothing of the prospects for a peaceful settlement.
In this context, it is worthy of note that the presidents discussed the possibility of holding another personal meeting. This is indeed a very significant development. It was agreed that representatives of both countries would immediately begin preparations for the summit, which could potentially be organised in Budapest, for instance.
On a separate note, it should be mentioned that our President highly praised personal efforts of the First Lady of the United States Melania Trump in reuniting Russian and Ukrainian children with their families and asked the US President to convey his very best wishes to his spouse.
Overall, I would say that the telephone contact between the presidents of Russia and the United States was quite useful, and the two leaders agreed to maintain contact.
Thank you for the attention.
