Eve is here. The timing of reaching various tipping points appears to be arriving sooner than previous warnings indicated, as signs of climate change generally come at the negative end of the forecast range. One example is the slowing of the Southern Atlantic Circulation, which could start having effects as early as a decade from now.
Written by Thomas Neuberger. Originally published on God’s Spies
A simple animation showing an inverted cycle. The red line is surface flow, and the blue line is underwater. NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Science Visualization Studio (Source)
We will probably pass the tipping point of AMOC closure within the next 10 to 20 years or so.
—Climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorff
Does death make our lives any sweeter? For most of us, that’s not the case.
-Sincerely
It’s time for a climate update. A tipping point is approaching. To present this information systematically, consider the following:
• Bad things have already happened and will continue to happen.
• It won’t be long before things get worse.
• Then a tipping point is reached, after which the worst of the situation sets in.
• A few years later, the worst is truly here.
This process applies in a huge number of areas, for example sea level rise and coastal destruction.
Sea levels are already rising, partly due to ocean expansion (warm water takes up more space than cold water), but the main cause is melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica. Once we reach a tipping point in glacier melting, all ice is certain to disappear at some point in the future, and a complete sea level rise disaster is certain to occur.
What would that look like? When Greenland’s ice melts, sea levels will rise by 24 feet. 230 feet of ice in Antarctica has melted. The world’s coastal cities, home to 15% of the world’s population, will erode along with their coasts and become submerged. The US would lose 45% of its GDP.
The thing to remember is that this all happens in stages. First, the pain. Then even more pain. Then comes the turning point. Although this may not be characterized by any event, it nevertheless guarantees that the system under discussion will completely collapse sometime in the future.
Most of our systems are currently in the first stage, or perhaps the second stage, which is quite painful. But tipping points lurk quietly, and some are quite close.
European personal heat pump “AMOC”
So let’s take a look at one of the systems under threat: the Atlantic Current system, which prevents Northern Europe like Canada from freezing.
Winter in Montreal (source)
The personal heat pump in Europe is the Atlantic Meridian Overturned Circulation (AMOC). Most of us refer to this as the “Gulf Stream,” but the two are not exactly the same. The AMOC is part of the world’s ocean circulation system, drawing warm water from the equatorial zone and moving it north and south across the ocean surface, where it cools, sinks, and returns as deep water currents (see image above).
The Europeans are interested in the part that runs from the Gulf of Mexico to the immediate vicinity of Scotland. For example, Paris is 3 degrees of latitude closer to the North Pole than Montreal, while Scotland is even closer to the North Pole. However, while Northern Europe is being warmed by AMOC, Canada is not.
Northern Europe is being warmed by the AMOC, but Canada is not. The top two pins are cities on the same latitude line. (Image source)
Now consider the video below. In it, the famous (very famous) climate physicist Stefan Rahmstorff discusses the future of AMOC from a scientific point of view. It’s only 15 minutes in total, but if you prefer, you can start at 12:43 to hear his tipping point predictions.
Rahmstorff’s conclusion: “We will probably pass the tipping point of AMOC closure within the next 10 to 20 years.” In other words, sometime between 2035 (probably) and 2050.
Most likely, the tipping point will not happen. But it will pass regardless.
A note for skeptics
I know some readers here are climate change skeptics. After all, these are predictions, and models can be flawed. (In fact, most of our climate models are already wrong, but on the side of complacency.)
These doubts do not bother me. No one’s optimism will change the future. No one doubts it. Regardless of anyone’s thoughts, things will be the way they are, decent or shoddy.
However, I will simply say this to the skeptics out there. Pay attention to your local environment for signs of increasing pain. The water supply is decreasing. A long and deep drought. More expensive insurance. Larger and more frequent hurricanes, storms, and fires. There will be fewer insects (sorry, there are already). Perhaps sporting events will be canceled more often.
If you see any of these signs, no matter what you think the cause is, be prepared. Let’s protect ourselves. And if it turns out you were right after all, I’ll be the first to celebrate with you.
Note to believers
It’s easy to look at all this and feel depressed. After all, this represents, if not the death of ourselves as individuals, then the story of the future that we always inevitably come upon ourselves, a kind of death of a future that is somehow continuous with ourselves.
Consider our movies and novels. Most stories looking several years ahead ignore climate and focus on new technologies. It will make a great movie. But this climate, whose kingship is certain, will make our technology extinct as long as it is ruled by our current sick rulers. The wave of smartphone glee that brought so much joy will eventually recede, and probably won’t return for a thousand years.
Here’s how to stay centered: We all understand that we will die, that is, personal destruction, but most people live without succumbing to its weight. We eat, watch sports, fall in love, mourn losses, cheer on gains, hug our children, and see friends. In general, we still try to live a happy life.
Does death make our lives any sweeter? For most of us, that’s not the case. We can’t stop death, but we can’t let it drag us down.
same here. If you think you can’t stop the destruction of our climate and way of life that arrogant and greedy people are determined to cause, consider it like a personal loss for your future and try to live well anyway. That choice is no different than the choice you faced yesterday.
And if you can think of a way to stop the less than 1,000 sick souls who are responsible for our lives, do it. There is joy in that too.
