The U.S. Capitol view is seen at the sunset in Washington, DC on September 30, 2025.
Mehmet Eser | AFP | Getty Images
Traders in the forecast market bet that the US government shutdown could drag for almost two weeks, with the odds rising that Congress will not sign contracts until at least mid-October.
In Kalshi, a federally regulated forecast market, current forecasts mean that negotiations at Capitol Hill have stagnated, and that has recently seen a sharply increasing 11 stops, meaning that it will last a day.
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In Polymet, traders are most likely to not resume until after October 15th, with the result being about 38%. In comparison, the odds for window resolutions from October 6th to 9th are 23%, carrying 22% on October 10th to 14th. Between October 3 and 5, 14% of traders expect lawmakers to sign contracts in the next few days.
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The complete closure began early Wednesday morning after top Democrats and Republicans, including President Donald Trump, failed to agree to a short-term deal to maintain government funding. It is the dining setting for hundreds of thousands of federal workers and the closure of numerous major programs and services.
The length of government closures is important as longer than usual stops can heavily on an already vulnerable economy, allowing pressure on stock markets near record highs.
Government closures last about 14 days on average, based on Bank of America data dating back to 1990. The S&P 500 increased by 1% during these events, but this long-term closure could rattle the market.
