Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller will be chatting with the bystanders of the Monetary Policy Conference at Stanford University’s Hoover Association in Palo Alto, California, on May 9, 2025.
Anne Safir | Reuters
The chances of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller being appointed as the next chair have surpassed 50% for the first time in the forecast market calci.
Waller’s odds skyrocketed from around 16% on Wednesday, after Bloomberg News cited people familiar with the issue, and reported that President Donald Trump’s advisor was his openness to adjust monetary policy based on forecasts rather than current data. Waller also reported that he met with Trump’s team about the Fed’s main role, but had not met with the president himself.
Waller’s chances at Karshi were beyond former frontrunner, former Fed civil servant Kevin Wahsh, and current director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, respectively.
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Trump nominated Waller as the Fed in 2020. In the latest Fed decision in July, Waller, along with Fed Gov. Michelle Bowman, publicly opposed the Fed’s decision to stabilize interest rates. Waller said the Fed’s waiting approach was “overly cautious.”
“Waller is an ideal option for investors given his recent attitude and the credibility of political independence,” said Adam Crisafulli, founder of Vital Knowlede in a memo.
Hassett and Warsh advocate for lower interest rates. The current Chairman Jerome Powell, which ended in May 2026, has been a frequent target for Trump’s criticism of increasing the rate.
Another popular prediction platform, Polymarket, Waller could rise to 35%. Hassett is likely to be 22%, while Warsh is currently at 11% on Polymarket. A total of 31% of participants bet that no announcements will be made by December.
On Tuesday, Trump told CNBC that he had four top slot candidates in mind, but seemed to nod to both Warsh and Hassett.
“He’s very good,” Trump said, referring to Wash. “Sometimes, they’re all very good until you put them there, and they’re not that good. But… I think he’s a very good guy. Kevin and Kevin, both Kevin are very good.”
These comments quickly sparked a surge in activities that sent odds of Karshi’s Hassett and Wash.
