New immigration policies enacted by the Canadian government in 2023 and 2024 are projected to remove billions of dollars from the revenue base of Canada’s post-secondary system over the next two years.
Policy background
For those who aren’t familiar with the many changes that Canada’s immigration minister has imposed over the past year, here’s a quick overview.
A minimum savings requirement of CAD 20,000 is required for students to obtain a study permit. New study permits will be cut by 35% in 2024 and another 10% in 2025 under federally mandated alien registration caps, but some educational institutions will reduce their entire study permit allocation are particularly affected because they are differentiated. Including master’s and doctoral study levels in the 2025 cap (until September 2024, the cap was only at undergraduate level). Deprivation of the right of partners of undergraduate students and some master’s students to receive open work visas. Disqualify university students who apply after November 1, 2024 from the Post-Graduation Work Program (PGWP) unless they graduate from a designated field of study. Eliminating post-study work eligibility for students enrolled in university programs offered through public-private partnerships.
Ontario will be hit hard.
Steve Orsini, president and CEO of the Council of Ontario Universities (COU), said based on COU members’ projections, Ontario’s universities will grow by 3% in 2024/25 compared to 2023. announced a loss of CAD 600 million in 2025/26. Assuming current trends hold. As he says, “There is an economic impact of almost $1 billion in the first two years alone.”
Ontario enrolls more international students at both universities than any other province. Just over four in ten international students in Canada study in Ontario. Furthermore, funding for higher education institutions in the province is among the lowest in all of Canada, making these institutions highly dependent on tuition fees, especially from international students. The Ontario Federation of University Faculty Associations (OCUFA) reports:
“International students in Ontario pay the highest tuition fees in Canada, and domestic students pay the fourth highest tuition fees, as Ontario’s funding ranks among the lowest in the country.”
OCUFA concludes:
“The system is definitely broken, and student caps will only cause more problems. The only solution is for the province to properly fund universities and for the federal government to continue to support Ontario’s world-class universities. Implement immigration policies that attract the world’s best talent, including international students.
When it comes to universities in Ontario, they are only 44% funded than the Canadian national average and rely more on international tuition than universities. Paris Johnston, president of the Canadian Institutes of Universities Education and Research (CICan), said the new policy would “significantly harm the university sector and local businesses that rely on schools for a graduate workforce.” .
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Today, news broke that three Ontario universities have already lost thousands of international students due to policy-related admission delays and the policy itself. Some of those students have decided not to come to Canada, while others have postponed their study plans.
Overall, industry analyst Alex Asher predicts:
“The massacre will be immediate and devastating at Ontario universities, immediate and devastating at other universities, and slow but severe at universities.In total, perhaps 20,000 or so Jobs would be lost. It wouldn’t be pretty. And it was totally unnecessary. Something had to be done…obviously this was that something. Not.”
He warns:
“Do you think we can get through this without closing programs? Think again. We’re talking about closing hundreds of programs, but we’re not sure if the state government is providing these programs with the appropriate level of protection.” All these big-ticket programs in the medical and trade fields are all 100% on the table because they don’t fund them. They’ve been cross-subsidized for years by international students. This is the apocalypse of the program. “And the state government is completely unprepared to respond because it has continued to deny the extent of the state’s funding shortfall over the past decade due to international student fees.”
better way
“The more we send a signal that international students are not welcome, the more our most mobile and talented students are likely to refrain from applying to Canada,” Orsini of the Ontario Council of Universities told the Globe and Mail. There is,” he said.
Orsini said there is a better way, and that is to target only unscrupulous higher education institutions, which are a small minority of all Canadian institutions.
“We know that the federal government has had to deal with bad actors who recklessly increased international student enrollment without the necessary support, but this has resulted in significant collateral damage to universities that will be felt for years to come. It is important that we take steps to reduce the overall number of international students at institutions that have experienced irresponsible and unsustainable growth in recent years.
Canadian universities call on government to act
Gabriel Miller, president of Universities Canada, said the inclusion of master’s and doctoral students in the cap would be an added blow to Brand Canada.
“Our international reputation has already been significantly damaged over the past six months, but the decision to tighten the screw on the cap and make it more difficult to recruit graduate students will cause further damage to our brand. That’s it. [The decline in new international students] This means that deficits will widen at even more institutions across the country. It remains within the power of federal and state governments to prevent these deficits from turning into cuts that hurt students and the economy. ”
He continued:
“We must ensure that one terrible year in international student recruitment does not become another three, five, or ten years. And we must resolve the funding shortfalls that are hurting universities in Ontario and across the country. We need to start making real plans.”
Atlantic Canada’s universities are in trouble
The Atlantic Association of Universities (AAU) has hired Gardner Pinfold Consultants to analyze the situation at universities in the region, resulting in a report titled “The Economic Impact of Canada’s International Student Cap in Atlantic Canada in 2024/25.” A report was prepared.
This report is based on the following analytical model that compares:
Economic contribution of international students using 2023/24 enrollment numbers and 2024/25 tuition fees, assuming no cap was imposed. Economic contribution of international students using actual enrollment numbers in 2024/25 and tuition fees in 2024/25.
The analysis found that across the Atlantic region, the cap reduced the number of international students by nearly 3,000 students (-11.4%);
Expenditures (direct production) CAD 163 million Provincial GDP CAD 165 million Provincial revenue CAD 94 million Provincial tax revenue CAD 39 million Number of full-time equivalent jobs 2,231
AAU President Peter Halpin said the cap “has had a devastating impact on many of the region’s 16 universities.” Universities in Atlantic Canada rely heavily on tuition fees from international students, with three out of every 10 undergraduates being international students.
government position
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) defended the cap and related policies in a statement.
“While it is unfair to blame students for the housing crisis, it is equally unfair to admit unlimited international students without proper support, including housing, health care, and appropriate educational environments.”
Those words are likely to ring hollow for Ontario’s Mohawk College. The university has seen an almost 40 per cent decrease in student enrollment this fall compared to last fall and now boasts 300 beds of student housing on its Hamilton campus. The dormitory was built to house incoming international students, but only 60 students live there, according to Katie Burrows, Mohawk State’s vice president for international students.
The new policy will have an impact far beyond the university sector. “Canada is really sacrificing the talent we need to become doctors, engineers and entrepreneurs,” said Universities Canada’s Miller.
He said: [the impact of the cap is] It will be even worse than we fear. But it’s important to note that we’ve already reached territory that no one expected, and this should be a big wake-up call for Ottawa, and we need to turn things around soon. ”
See below for additional background.
